I. It’s a state divided this afternoon with winter across the northern third of the state (most are in the 30s), seasonable spring conditions central (low-mid 60s), and 70°+ downstate. Unfortunately, we’ll all turn colder tonight and as low pressure scoots east across the Ohio Valley, it’ll help pull a swath of wet snow across the northern half of Indiana after midnight through the predawn hours Thursday. Further north and northeast, a wet accumulation of an inch or less can be expected.
II. We’ll turn cooler to close the week, but with an increasingly sunny time of things, we forecast a very pleasant open to the weekend. High pressure will remain in control of our weather into early next week. Really the only item of interest will be a gusty easterly breeze at times Sunday into Monday. We’ll watch a storm system get shunted south and stay dry here. Overnight lows will remain chilly through the weekend.
III. The next opportunity for meaningful precipitation should arrive the middle of next week (Tuesday-Wednesday) time frame, and even this doesn’t look like a big deal. From this distance, it seems like 0.10″ to 0.25″ will come from that system.
IV. As we look ahead, the relative cold looks to relax as we put a wrap on April and open May. Additionally, we also note the EPS painting much of the northern tier into the Ohio Valley with a drier than normal signal. Sure looks like conditions are finally improving for #Plant18 to get underway in earnest…
More specific to Indianapolis, here’s the monthly temperature breakdown so far for 2018:
While we have conflicting temperature ideas, both suggest a drier than average month emerging:
At the end of the day, our call on May’s forecast from mid-April would be for an early cooler than average start before flipping towards more of a seasonable to slightly warmer than normal regime. Our idea all along this spring has been that when this pattern flips, the potential is present to jump right to a summery feel. In the face of the new European Weeklies, we still feel this warmer idea mid and late May is on the table. We’re in agreement with the data of a drier than average month.
At times, rain will fall at a moderate to heavy intensity tonight into Sunday, especially across the eastern half of the state. Additional rainfall totals of 1″ to 2″ can be expected in and around the city, itself, and points east.
The other item of interest tonight will be the tight temperature gradient across the state. Don’t be surprised by perhaps as much of a 30° spread from north to central parts of the state this evening as the “backdoor” cold front begins to drop south. You’ll certainly notice once the front passes.
Eventually, cold will overwhelm and the second half of the weekend will wrap up on a downright “raw” note. As precipitation wraps around the area of low pressure Sunday night and Monday, it’ll fall as snow here. In fact, snowfall intensity is likely to be great enough to put down a coating in spots Monday morning across central Indiana.
Drier weather returns Tuesday before a weak weather system deliver gusty winds and a possible shower Wednesday (not a big deal). The majority of the upcoming week will run well below average- highlighted by the coldest day on Monday and reinforcing chill Thursday and Friday.
Our next storm system of significance will be slated for an arrival next weekend. While we’ll have to fine tune timing as we get closer, plan on increasing rain chances as the day progresses next Saturday.