Mar 12
It’s an extremely busy morning here and we won’t have time to post the fresh 7-Day forecast until this evening. After a round of thunderstorms overnight, precipitation has now transitioned…
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Mar 11
1.) We don’t really have any changes to the going snowfall accumulation forecast we have out concerning Wednesday. We think Indianapolis accumulates 2″, with heavier amounts north of the city…
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Mar 10
|
Mon. |
Tue. |
Wed. |
Thr. |
Fri. |
Sat. |
Sun. |
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|
|
|
|
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|
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|
34/ 60 |
40/ 63 |
18/ 40 |
10/ 35 |
27/ 53 |
32/ 49 |
28/ 40 |
|
Light |
– – – |
Light |
– – – |
– – – |
Light |
– – – |
Forecast Updated 03.10.14 @ 7:55a
Windy Warm Up…A weak weather system will scoot north of IND this morning, but may be close enough to push a couple of very light showers into our northern suburbs during the mid to late morning period. We note the latest HRRR model does just that. Precipitation amounts, if any, north of the city will be very light and not much more than a trace. Otherwise the big story today will be a gusty southwest wind and much warmer temperatures. We think highs zero in on the 60 degree mark by this afternoon as southwest winds gust over 30 MPH.
This then sets the stage for a “chamber of commerce” weather day Tuesday with lots of sunshine and temperatures in the lower 60s.
Wintry Trouble Brewing…We continue to monitor the “goings on” for an accumulating snow event in here on Wednesday. Low pressure will scoot across southern portions of the state Wednesday morning and help spread what will initially be rain into the region during the wee morning hours. As the low deepens heading east it’ll tap much colder air looming just north of our area and result in a transition from rain to snow Wednesday morning from north to south. A heavy, wet snow is likely to fall during the mid to late morning hours before ending. The other aspect of this system will be a very stiff northeast wind and this will lead to blowing and drifting problems for some. Our expected snowfall accumulation idea ranges from 2-5″ of heavy, wet snow north of the city with 2″, or less, anticipated for the city and points south. We’ll fine tune these amounts later, but feel our initial idea remains a good one this morning.
Thursday will return to the dry theme though much colder than what the early week period was.
Questions Heading Into Next Weekend…Forecast models are having difficulty handling what’s going to be a very active northwest flow regime later in the weekend into the following week. We’re concerned at least one of the systems diving in from Canada has the chance to phase with the southern stream and crank out another snow event for the Ohio Valley during the time frame mentioned above, but we’re not confident on which system this will be just yet.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast
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Feb 27
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Thr. |
Fri. |
Sat. |
Sun. |
Mon. |
Tue. |
Wed. |
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|
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6/ 14 |
10/ 35 |
28/ 39 |
19/ 30 |
10/ 19 |
– 5/ 19 |
0/ 20 |
|
– – – |
Light |
Light |
Heavy |
Light |
– – – |
– – – |
Forecast Updated 02.27.14 @ 7:30a
Fresh Arctic Air…A fresh arctic air mass is blowing into the state this morning on gusty northerly winds. Top wind gusts here at IndyWx.com HQ, in southern Boone County, have been clocked at 41 MPH so far this morning. Despite a lot of sun today, don’t look for the thermometer to move much. In fact, we forecast most communities to remain below the middle teens- a far cry from the average high of the middle 40s.
Watching A Light Snow Maker…Most of Friday will feature sunshine, but clouds will be on the increase during the afternoon and some light snow will follow late Friday night into Saturday morning. This won’t be a big deal and really looks unimpressive- less than an inch for most neighborhoods.
Big Winter Storm Brewing…We continue to gain confidence in a winter storm that will impact central Indiana Saturday night through Monday morning. The set up is one that will feature an arctic front stalling out across the state Saturday night into early Sunday with moisture overrunning the cold air in place, resulting in periods of significant precipitation- mostly in the form of snow. Finally, a wave of low pressure will move out of the Mississippi River Valley northeast into the Tennessee Valley Sunday night into early Monday.
Our initial snowfall idea places a band of heavy snow through the majority of central Indiana, including Indianapolis, to the tune of 6-8 inches.
Bitter Air Flows In Behind The Winter Storm…A bitterly cold air mass will plunge into the area behind our winter storm. With a fresh, deep snow pack in place and clearing skies, it’s possible that we could be looking at below zero temperatures both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Forget that the calendar will say early March by this point…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast
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Feb 26
We continue to monitor the goings on for the weekend closely. As of now we still think snow is the dominant form of precipitation across central Indiana and likely comes in “waves” of intensity from late Saturday night into Monday morning. Significant snowfall totals are possible, but it’s still too early to pin point totals due to the chance of some mixing issues (sleet, freezing rain) for some and the overall placement of the cold front. This will be a bit different than what we’ve experienced with our last couple of winter storms and could be more of a prolonged event as warmer moist air overruns the cold air at the surface. Again, exactly where the arctic boundary stalls Saturday night into Sunday will determine the precise precipitation types and exactly who sees snow versus sleet and freezing rain. Stay tuned.
In other news…if you thought it’s been a cold winter then you’d be correct. In fact, this “cool” image from IEM shows that central Indiana has been at 32 degrees, or lower, between 60-70% of the time since December 1st. Impressive, for sure!
Finally, another arctic cold front will slam into central Indiana tomorrow morning and will be accompanied by howling northerly winds gusting to 40-50 MPH and a potential quick-hitting snow shower. This will set the stage for a brutal Thursday as temperatures struggle to recover to the lower to middle teens for IND and even colder for the northern ‘burbs. This is hard to handle when considering we’re expected to “normally” reach the middle 40s this time of year.
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