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Category: Weekly Outlook
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/07/22/video-closing-out-july-and-looking-ahead-to-august/
Jul 14
Looking At The Week Ahead: Changes Begin…
Our Saturday morning is dawning with pleasant conditions- filtered sunshine and temperatures in the mid and upper 60s for most. We’ll notice a couple of items today: 1.) increasing humidity as the day progresses and 2.) increasing storm chances later this evening. While most of the daytime hours should remain dry across central Indiana, that begins to change tonight. A cold front lies off to our northwest this morning and this front will slowly push southeast between now and Monday, passing the region Monday evening. Until the front passes, a more unsettled pattern can be expected. While it won’t storm the entire time over the next (3) days, a couple of rounds of hefty shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected. With a tropical air mass in place (PWATs flirting with 2″), locally heavy rain will accompany the storms.
The big story through the daytime today will be the heat. Most central Indiana neighborhoods will top out in the lower to middle 90s with heat indices approaching 105° at times. Take the heat seriously this afternoon and evening and ensure you have means to take frequent breaks if planning any time outdoors.
We’ll notice thunderstorms becoming more numerous for our friends in Illinois through the afternoon and evening, but central Indiana should remain mostly dry until tonight. Forecast radar products want to bring these storms into the state after the 7p to 8p time frame. We’ll keep close tabs on radar trends this afternoon.
(Again, with high moisture content, any thunderstorm that passes through your neighborhood will be capable of producing torrential rainfall). For that matter, the same story can be said with storms that develop Sunday and Monday, as precipitable water values will remain around 2″ until the front sweeps through the state.
A “juicy” air mass will help fuel locally heavy rain through early week.
Finally, the aforementioned cold front will sweep the state Monday evening. This will put an end to rain chances through midweek and allow for a refreshing air mass to blow into the region. How do highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s sound with low humidity? Overnight lows will be allowed to fall into the 50s during this time frame.
Overall, dry conditions should prevail until late next weekend when a secondary, even stronger, front will make a run at the region. We’ll ramp storm chances back up ahead of this expected front and the air mass behind the boundary in the Week 2 time period will be even cooler than we we’ll enjoy the middle part of the upcoming week.
Speaking of cool, the pattern continues to look vastly different as we put a wrap on the month than what we’ve grown accustomed to over the past couple of weeks. Note the dominant trough the models show setting up shop over the Mid West…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/07/14/looking-at-the-week-ahead-changes-begin/
Jun 30
Serious Heat & Humidity Continues In The Week Ahead…
An expansive upper level ridge will keep many across the eastern half of the country very hot and humid over the upcoming week. The worst of this particular heat wave, relative to average, will center itself over the Great Lakes and Northeast.
More specific to central Indiana, daily highs in the lower to middle 90s and overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s will continue into late next week. For the most part, this is a dry pattern, as well, BUT there will be a few exceptions.
The first of such arrives Sunday evening into Sunday night with the potential of a line of showers and thunderstorms rumbling into the state. We note high resolution models weaken this line of storms as it arrives into central Indiana (likely after dark Sunday), but we’ll keep an eye on things. As things stand now, the western half of the state stands the greatest risk of getting meaningful rain Sunday evening.
Thereafter, additional isolated to widely scattered storm coverage is possible- primarily during the afternoon and evening hours, but more than not will remain rain-free. 7-day precipitation totals check in this morning in the 0.25″ to 0.75″ range.
In the longer range, we should begin to see a transition to “less hot” 🙂 conditions next weekend followed by a more significant pattern change for the second half of July as the upper level ridge retrogrades west, centering itself over the Rocky Mountain region.
Not only will this likely lead to a cooler second half of July, but should also offer up an increasingly active and wetter northwesterly flow for our immediate region.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/30/serious-heat-humidity-continues-in-the-week-ahead/
Jun 23
Another Active Week Ahead…
Saturday will feature unseasonably refreshing conditions as we’ll remain under the influence of an area of low pressure tracking off to our northeast. Look for considerable cloudiness today along with highs around 10° below average. Enjoy it as significant heat looms late next week.
Sunshine will increase for the second half of the weekend and highs will respond- mid 80s after a refreshing start Sunday morning.
High pressure will briefly build in and control our weather through the early part of the new week. An attempt of a thunderstorm complex to impact central Indiana Monday should be thwarted by a drier air mass in place. That said, moisture will increase Tuesday and beyond and a more active regime will return. Multiple thunderstorm complexes (some heavy) will rumble across the Ohio Valley and Mid West Tuesday through Thursday.
While it’ll certainly turn more humid through midweek, the rain and storms will keep temperatures at seasonable levels. All of that changes once to Thursday and Friday as a building ridge of high pressure expands across the Ohio Valley.
This will limit rain chances and potentially offer up the hottest air of the summer. We expect 5-6 days of low-mid 90s for highs and oppressive overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s.
Thankfully, the hot dome will retrograde west and lead to “less hot” and increasingly stormy conditions after the first week of July. An active northwest flow pattern will take hold and provide an active time of things during this period.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/23/another-active-week-ahead/
Jun 09
New Week Kicks Off With More Storm Chances…
An active, and at times stormy, pattern will remain into the new week. The setup remains the same and doesn’t need rehashing :-). While we’ll have to keep a close eye on the potential of morning convection around the area Sunday, thinking here is beginning to shift to Sunday night and predawn Monday as the next best chance of gusty storms and more widespread coverage of beneficial rain. A warm and muggy air mass will be in place and as vigorous upper level energy interacts with the tropical air, thunderstorms that initiate to our northwest should hold together, if not grow stronger moving into central Indiana.
Upper level energy will track across the state Sunday night and Monday morning.
Dew points are forecast to surge into the lower 70s Sunday night.
Precipitable water values will approach 2″ Sunday night and early Monday morning.
Forecast radar is beginning to pick up on potentially a noisy time of things Sunday night.
A warm and sticky air mass will remain in place through the first half of the work week before a frontal passage offers up a brief bout of slightly drier air for the middle of the week. Dew points will ease back into comfy range (50s) Wednesday and should also lead to a mostly dry day.
We’ll get to at least briefly enjoy a drier air mass Wednesday.
Humidity will build once again as we move into the latter portions of the work week and with the return of the summer mugginess will come a return of thunderstorm chances (scattered coverage Thursday and Friday).
An early look at next weekend shows general agreement with the GFS and European forecast models: drier air returning along with slightly cooler air. We’ll keep you updated!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/09/new-week-kicks-off-with-more-storm-chances/
May 20
Unsettled Open To The Week And Looking Towards Next Weekend…
As we type this Sunday evening a few strong storms have developed across east-central Indiana. If your travels take you east this evening, a couple of these storms have been producing large hail and strong winds.
Otherwise, a stalled frontal boundary remains draped across the Ohio Valley and will serve as the focal point for additional shower and thunderstorm development through the early stages of the week. Rainfall coverage will likely be most widespread Monday, and come in a couple waves: Monday morning into early afternoon and again Monday evening.
By the time all is said and done late Monday night and early Tuesday, expect widespread rainfall totals between 0.50″ and 1″ with locally heavier amounts where the stronger storms track.
High pressure will build into the region through the midweek stretch and result in increasingly sunny and pleasant conditions. With a drier air mass in place, overnight lows will fall into the 50s through the midweek period.
Our attention will then shift to the threat of active times for the Memorial Day weekend, including the 102nd running of the Indianapolis 500. After a mostly dry Friday, shower and thunderstorm chances will be on the increase Friday night through the weekend, continuing into early Monday as of now. While it won’t rain the entire time, it might be a good idea to have a “plan B” in mind at times for the busy upcoming weekend. Models like the idea of a rather significant, albeit likely brief, cool down to close the month…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/20/unsettled-open-to-the-week-and-looking-towards-next-weekend/
May 13
Still Warm, But Much More Active…
So far, May-to-date has run well above average in the temperature department (+8.5°) and below average from a precipitation perspective. While we’ll continue to run much warmer than normal through the second half of the month, we’ll begin to make up for “lost time” in the rainfall department, and that starts this week.
Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms are included in your latest 7-day and, at times, storm complexes will likely reach strong to severe levels as disturbances ride the periphery of an upper level ridge off to our south. It certainly won’t rain the entire time over the upcoming week and we’ll still enjoy more dry hours than wet and stormy. That said, for a region running around 1.5″ below average, the more active times will be a welcome sight for many. By next Sunday, we expect many area rain gauges to accumulate 1.5″ to 2.5″ of rain with locally heavier amounts.
Warmth will continue to dominate through the next couple of weeks.
For a change, above normal precipitation is expected over the upcoming week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/13/still-warm-but-much-more-active/
Oct 26
Analyzing The New JMA Weeklies…
The NEW JMA Weeklies are in and they center the coolest anomalies for November across the central, including our region. Overall, they’re pretty chilly relative to normal, and also wetter than average. Perhaps we get into some November frozen precipitation?
Week 1:
Week 2:
Weeks 3-4:
28 Day Mean:
After the cold start to the month, the JMA Weeklies suggest ridges will “bookend” the country as November evolves, especially the Northeast region. This fits our research, as well, and fits the pattern, overall. If you haven’t had an opportunity to read our Winter Outlook, we discussed the potential of early cold centering itself into the “belly” of the country and the Weeklies appear to be seeing this, as well.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/26/analyzing-the-new-jma-weeklies/
Sep 23
VIDEO: Transitional Pattern Over The Upcoming 10 Days…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/09/23/video-transitional-pattern-over-the-upcoming-10-days/
Sep 14
Weekly Update: JMA, CFSv2, Euro…
The general consensus between the JMA and CFSv2 is that warmth is the story through Week 2, especially this weekend into next week. JMA first:
Week 1
Week 2
Weeks 3-4
Before we show the CFSv2, a couple take-aways from the JMA:
- Warmth is most impressive early on (through next week), relative to average
- As cold tries to push, active times will return (finally) to the region from Week 2 on
Now…the CFSv2:
Weeks 1-2
Weeks 3-4
Key take-aways:
- Similar to the JMA, warmth is most impressive early on before a “fight” develops thereafter.
While we can’t show the European Weeklies due to licensing issues, they paint a similar theme, overall. They sing a similar song in the short-term for warmth to close the month, but are much more bullish on the transition to a colder than average first half of October compared to the CFSv2 and JMA.
To sum things up, confidence is high on a summer-like regime to engulf the region through the balance of the second half of September as a ‘Nina-ish pattern takes hold. Late-season summer warmth will rule through next week, including highs in the 85°-90° range at times- developing as early as this weekend. This, of course, comes on the heels of an unusually early cool start to meteorological fall (IND is running a whopping 6° below average, MTD). After the warmth dominates, a transitional pattern should ensue, including more active times (wetter than average as we close September and open October), along with “pops” of colder air. That said, a consistently positive southern oscillation index has us “raising an eye brow” to the aggressively cold start to October such as the Euro implies… Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/09/14/weekly-update-jma-cfsv2-euro/