Category Archives: Weekly Outlook

Soon-To-Be “Delta” Makes For A Busy Week Along The Gulf Coast; 3-Week Outlook For Central IN…

Before we talk tropics, frost is widespread this morning across the state. We note some are even at the freezing mark as we start the new work week.

This is right around average, or just a few days early, for our first 32° freeze of the year across central Indiana.

Expect bright sunshine and another classic fall sky this afternoon which will help warm us to around 60°.

The week ahead will feature quiet conditions across the region. We’ll watch a couple of cold fronts scoot by to our northeast and, of course, soon-to-be Delta in the Gulf of Mexico. Delta will likely strengthen into a hurricane before reaching the north-central Gulf Coast late week. There are ingredients in place that may result in rapid intensification later this week and the potential of Delta strengthening into a major hurricane is on the table, IMHO. Thankfully, the combination of increasing wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures right along the coast (thanks to the early fall fronts that have made it unusually far south) should help lead to weakening prior to landfall. The problem with that, however, is if the system is coming in as a major, storm surge will still be quite significant.

If you have plans to travel to the northern Gulf Coast, please pay particularly close attention to the develops over the coming hours and days. As of this morning, it appears as if we’ll be looking at a Friday landfall.

Back here on the home front, quiet conditions are expected this week- and for the most part over the next few weeks. Perhaps the next item of excitement will be a cold front pegged to move through the region in the 8-10 day period. We’ll need to keep close eyes on the EPO/ PNA trends in the Week 2 period for the possibility of a sharp jab of colder air behind that cold front. This would come after a nice surge of warmth (Indian Summer) compared to normal. Additionally, looking even further ahead, longer range guidance is beginning to get excited around the potential of unseasonably cold (wintry like) air to open November.

Week 1

Week 2

As expected, the pattern should continue to run quite dry through the better part of the period:

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Long Range Update: Closing Out August And Welcoming In Meteorological Fall…

The upcoming couple of weeks will be dominated by the tropics grabbing the headlines, but our more immediate weather pattern will become interesting, as well.

In short, the medium to long range pattern will be controlled by the MJO. We think the upcoming 7 days will feature increased heat and humidity (more typical of late-August standards), but as the MJO rumbles into Phase 2, a period of cooler air will arrive around the last couple of days of the month, or first few days of September (subject to change by a day or two from this distance).

This supports the flip back to warmth next week and paves way for at least a transient period of cool next weekend or the following week:

Sure enough, that’s where the models are going over the next 2-3 weeks:

The early call on Labor Day weekend is for a cooler than normal feel.

The precipitation pattern favors a wet look with Phase 1 (closing August and opening September) followed by a shift east in the wettest anomalies in Phase 2 (early to mid September).

The European Weeklies show a similar look:

The wild card here has to do with how long we stay in Phase 2 (if we stay longer, cooler risks will present themselves for September) vs. going into the wheelhouse and allowing other drivers to take control. More on what lies ahead September, as a whole, in the coming days… One thing’s for sure and that’s the likelihood the tropics remain hyperactive into mid-September.

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Long Range Update: Closing Out August…

With a little over 2 weeks to go in meteorological summer, model data disagrees in the way the month- and season ends. That is, after the upcoming week where the consensus is cooler and drier than normal (we agree, as well). Let’s take a look at the data:

European Weeklies

Week 1

CFSv2

Week 1

GEFS

Week 1

EPS

Week 1

JMA

Week 1

The American data and JMA Weeklies are coolest (compared to the European), but compared to Weeks 2 and 3, there’s better consensus. The initial week is also looking drier than normal- especially after a “smattering” of storms tomorrow and Saturday.

Week 1 Precipitation anomalies- JMA Weeklies
Week 1 Precipitation anomalies- European ensemble

Let’s now take a look at Week 2:

European Weeklies

Week 2

CFSv2

Week 2

GEFS

Week 2

EPS

Week 2

JMA

Week 2

This is where our idea begins to pivot more towards the JMA Weeklies and European data (warmer look). The reason primarily has to do with the MJO moving back into Phase 8 during this time period.

This is a warm phase in August.

Furthermore, the PNA ‘mean’ is forecast to trend off the positive “mountain” (that will help drive the cooler pattern for the upcoming week) and more towards neutral.

Phase 1 is also a warmer look for our part of the country and that’s the way we’re leaning for the last week of the month (despite the very cool CFSv2).

While not overly warm, we think the JMA has the best handle on the temperature pattern in the Week 3 timeframe, locally (seasonable to slightly above normal).

The pattern should also begin to trend wetter during this time period:

This matches up with Phase 1 of the Madden Julian oscillation:

So, to summarize, after a cool and dry period next week, we anticipate the pattern to trend warmer (more seasonable) and wetter to close the month and head into early September. One other item of note is that the tropics should really begin to heat back up during this period, as well. Of course, as is the case from time to time, that can be a wild card from a precipitation perspective. The Gulf of Mexico (GOM) looks particularly busy late August through late September, but there’s simply no way to get more specific from this distance, including potential inland impacts. It’s worth keeping a close eye though.

Before we leave, the latest JAMSTEC seasonal data updated this morning and features a “torch” of a fall, along with a warm, wet winter, locally. That southeast ridge will have to be dealt with this winter. While still early, the early lean is for a warm start to winter (including holiday season). While there are some ingredients that may keep things more interesting than what they could be otherwise, from at least this point, this doesn’t appear as if it’ll be an “exciting” winter for lovers of snow and cold. Much more later- and again, we still have a long way to go…

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Off To The Races; Warmth Met With Periodic Storms…

A band of light showers is falling across southern Indiana this morning, but these are expected to diminish before pushing into central Indiana. Most of the remainder of our Wednesday should be rain-free.

The quiet times will give way to a couple of rounds of storms during the overnight and into Friday. Most notably for central Indiana, we think storm chances will increase significantly after midnight and through the predawn hours Thursday. Locally heavy rain and vivid lightning is expected with the stronger storms.

These storms are in association with a warm front lifting north through the state. Speaking of warm, we’ll certainly notice a difference in air masses between today (still relatively cool and dry) and tomorrow (much warmer and more humid). In fact, highs Thursday will flirt with 80° across most of central Indiana.


Once we get rid of the early morning storms, most of the remainder of our Thursday will be dry and feature a return of the sun.

Another round of storms is expected Thursday night into Friday, but most of these will remain well north of our area. A few of these could become severe across northwestern Indiana during this period.

Rain and storm chances will increase once again during the day Friday across central Indiana. A few strong storms will be possible.

As we look ahead to the weekend, it appears we’ll be able to enjoy a mostly dry day Saturday (widely scattered storm possible) before more widespread storms return Sunday. Warm and humid conditions will prevail. A cold front will move through the area early next week which will allow for briefly cooler, drier air to move in during the 1st half of next week. Before that takes place, rainfall amounts between tonight and Sunday are expected to range from 1.5” – 2” with locally heavier totals across central Indiana. Heavier rainfall amounts can be expected across northern Indiana (widespread 3” to 4” amounts during the same period).

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