Category Archives: Weekly Outlook

Next Week Turns More Active…

Our quiet and unseasonably pleasant weather pattern will carry us straight through the weekend and to open the early part of the work week. Until Tuesday, expect a “rinse and repeat” pattern to the likes of what we’ve been enjoying the past several days. For those wrapping up final Harvest20 work or perhaps getting a jump on the exterior Christmas decorating, you couldn’t ask for better conditions.

Things will begin to change Tuesday as the first of (2) cold fronts moves through the region. Clouds will increase Monday evening and showers (perhaps even embedded thunder) will blow into town Tuesday PM into Wednesday morning.

Note “Eta” is also expected to be churning in the Gulf of Mexico at this point- at least in some shape or form. While we don’t expect impacts from what’s left of Eta up this way, our friends in the Southeast and potentially up the eastern seaboard should monitor the progress of Eta during the upcoming week.

Temperatures behind the frontal passage Wednesday will “cool” back to seasonal averages for this time of year.

As we look ahead to next weekend, another cold front will sweep through the region. Accordingly, we can expect another round of showers and thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday. It then appears as if a “pop” of colder air (lows around freezing and highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s) will flow into the region early parts of Week 2, at least briefly.

Models aren’t overly excited on rainfall numbers, locally. We’ll forecast between 0.50” and 1” falling between the two frontal passages which is in line with both the GFS and European ensemble data.

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Soon-To-Be “Delta” Makes For A Busy Week Along The Gulf Coast; 3-Week Outlook For Central IN…

Before we talk tropics, frost is widespread this morning across the state. We note some are even at the freezing mark as we start the new work week.

This is right around average, or just a few days early, for our first 32° freeze of the year across central Indiana.

Expect bright sunshine and another classic fall sky this afternoon which will help warm us to around 60°.

The week ahead will feature quiet conditions across the region. We’ll watch a couple of cold fronts scoot by to our northeast and, of course, soon-to-be Delta in the Gulf of Mexico. Delta will likely strengthen into a hurricane before reaching the north-central Gulf Coast late week. There are ingredients in place that may result in rapid intensification later this week and the potential of Delta strengthening into a major hurricane is on the table, IMHO. Thankfully, the combination of increasing wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures right along the coast (thanks to the early fall fronts that have made it unusually far south) should help lead to weakening prior to landfall. The problem with that, however, is if the system is coming in as a major, storm surge will still be quite significant.

If you have plans to travel to the northern Gulf Coast, please pay particularly close attention to the develops over the coming hours and days. As of this morning, it appears as if we’ll be looking at a Friday landfall.

Back here on the home front, quiet conditions are expected this week- and for the most part over the next few weeks. Perhaps the next item of excitement will be a cold front pegged to move through the region in the 8-10 day period. We’ll need to keep close eyes on the EPO/ PNA trends in the Week 2 period for the possibility of a sharp jab of colder air behind that cold front. This would come after a nice surge of warmth (Indian Summer) compared to normal. Additionally, looking even further ahead, longer range guidance is beginning to get excited around the potential of unseasonably cold (wintry like) air to open November.

Week 1

Week 2

As expected, the pattern should continue to run quite dry through the better part of the period:

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Long Range Update: Closing Out August And Welcoming In Meteorological Fall…

The upcoming couple of weeks will be dominated by the tropics grabbing the headlines, but our more immediate weather pattern will become interesting, as well.

In short, the medium to long range pattern will be controlled by the MJO. We think the upcoming 7 days will feature increased heat and humidity (more typical of late-August standards), but as the MJO rumbles into Phase 2, a period of cooler air will arrive around the last couple of days of the month, or first few days of September (subject to change by a day or two from this distance).

This supports the flip back to warmth next week and paves way for at least a transient period of cool next weekend or the following week:

Sure enough, that’s where the models are going over the next 2-3 weeks:

The early call on Labor Day weekend is for a cooler than normal feel.

The precipitation pattern favors a wet look with Phase 1 (closing August and opening September) followed by a shift east in the wettest anomalies in Phase 2 (early to mid September).

The European Weeklies show a similar look:

The wild card here has to do with how long we stay in Phase 2 (if we stay longer, cooler risks will present themselves for September) vs. going into the wheelhouse and allowing other drivers to take control. More on what lies ahead September, as a whole, in the coming days… One thing’s for sure and that’s the likelihood the tropics remain hyperactive into mid-September.

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Long Range Update: Closing Out August…

With a little over 2 weeks to go in meteorological summer, model data disagrees in the way the month- and season ends. That is, after the upcoming week where the consensus is cooler and drier than normal (we agree, as well). Let’s take a look at the data:

European Weeklies

Week 1

CFSv2

Week 1

GEFS

Week 1

EPS

Week 1

JMA

Week 1

The American data and JMA Weeklies are coolest (compared to the European), but compared to Weeks 2 and 3, there’s better consensus. The initial week is also looking drier than normal- especially after a “smattering” of storms tomorrow and Saturday.

Week 1 Precipitation anomalies- JMA Weeklies
Week 1 Precipitation anomalies- European ensemble

Let’s now take a look at Week 2:

European Weeklies

Week 2

CFSv2

Week 2

GEFS

Week 2

EPS

Week 2

JMA

Week 2

This is where our idea begins to pivot more towards the JMA Weeklies and European data (warmer look). The reason primarily has to do with the MJO moving back into Phase 8 during this time period.

This is a warm phase in August.

Furthermore, the PNA ‘mean’ is forecast to trend off the positive “mountain” (that will help drive the cooler pattern for the upcoming week) and more towards neutral.

Phase 1 is also a warmer look for our part of the country and that’s the way we’re leaning for the last week of the month (despite the very cool CFSv2).

While not overly warm, we think the JMA has the best handle on the temperature pattern in the Week 3 timeframe, locally (seasonable to slightly above normal).

The pattern should also begin to trend wetter during this time period:

This matches up with Phase 1 of the Madden Julian oscillation:

So, to summarize, after a cool and dry period next week, we anticipate the pattern to trend warmer (more seasonable) and wetter to close the month and head into early September. One other item of note is that the tropics should really begin to heat back up during this period, as well. Of course, as is the case from time to time, that can be a wild card from a precipitation perspective. The Gulf of Mexico (GOM) looks particularly busy late August through late September, but there’s simply no way to get more specific from this distance, including potential inland impacts. It’s worth keeping a close eye though.

Before we leave, the latest JAMSTEC seasonal data updated this morning and features a “torch” of a fall, along with a warm, wet winter, locally. That southeast ridge will have to be dealt with this winter. While still early, the early lean is for a warm start to winter (including holiday season). While there are some ingredients that may keep things more interesting than what they could be otherwise, from at least this point, this doesn’t appear as if it’ll be an “exciting” winter for lovers of snow and cold. Much more later- and again, we still have a long way to go…

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