Category: Weekly Outlook

Sep 14

Weekly Update: JMA, CFSv2, Euro…

The general consensus between the JMA and CFSv2 is that warmth is the story through Week 2, especially this weekend into next week.  JMA first:

Week 1

Week 2

Weeks 3-4

Before we show the CFSv2, a couple take-aways from the JMA:

  • Warmth is most impressive early on (through next week), relative to average
  • As cold tries to push, active times will return (finally) to the region from Week 2 on

Now…the CFSv2:

Weeks 1-2

Weeks 3-4

Key take-aways:

  • Similar to the JMA, warmth is most impressive early on before a “fight” develops thereafter.

While we can’t show the European Weeklies due to licensing issues, they paint a similar theme, overall.  They sing a similar song in the short-term for warmth to close the month, but are much more bullish on the transition to a colder than average first half of October compared to the CFSv2 and JMA.

To sum things up, confidence is high on a summer-like regime to engulf the region through the balance of the second half of September as a ‘Nina-ish pattern takes hold.  Late-season summer warmth will rule through next week, including highs in the 85°-90° range at times- developing as early as this weekend.  This, of course, comes on the heels of an unusually early cool start to meteorological fall (IND is running a whopping 6° below average, MTD).  After the warmth dominates, a transitional pattern should ensue, including more active times (wetter than average as we close September and open October), along with “pops” of colder air.  That said, a consistently positive southern oscillation index has us “raising an eye brow” to the aggressively cold start to October such as the Euro implies… Stay tuned.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekly-update-jma-cfsv2-euro/

Jul 27

JMA Weeklies: Hottest Of The Summer Is Behind Us…

The new JMA Weeklies are in and highlighted by the following:

  • An unseasonably cool close to July
  • Worst of the summer heat is behind us
  • Warmest anomalies along the East and West Coasts

Week 1:

A trough will sink into the central and eastern portions of the country and result in rather widespread below normal and quite refreshing conditions as we close the month of July.  Along with the cool, dry air will come an extended stretch of rain-free conditions through the latter portions of next week.

Week 2:

The JMA suggests the mean trough position will remain across the central portions of the country with signals of ridging developing along the Northwest coast.  Cool, wet weather (compared to average) is forecast central as the heat continues across the West.  We also note developing warmth across the Northeast region.

Weeks 3-4:

Seasonal temperatures are set to unfold across the central late August with warmest anomalies painting themselves across the Northeast and Northwest portions of the country.  The pattern, locally, is set to become more active from a precipitation perspective as wet conditions return.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/jma-weeklies-hottest-of-the-summer-is-behind-us/

Jul 20

JMA Weeklies: Seasonal Pattern To Open August

The new JMA Weeklies are in and highlighted by the following:

  • Central hot pattern doesn’t last
  • Seasonal pattern takes hold
  • Heat builds across the Northeast region

Week 1:

Hottest anomalies remain across the central region, but the days are numbered on this pulse of heat and the JMA Weeklies suggest a cooler, more seasonal, pattern looms to close July and open August.  We note the wet regime across the Southwest region, where associated cooler anomalies are also located.

Week 2:

It’s a “book end” hot pattern that includes heat along both the Northwest region and a developing hot pattern over the Northeast.  The central region, including here on the home front, looks very seasonal.  With a subtle northwest flow aloft, we’ll have to be mindful of storm complexes at times.

Weeks 3-4:

Our attention is drawn to the heat across the Northeast region and the cooler, wetter regime (relative to average) across the Southwest.  Locally, there aren’t any strong indications for big time heat or heavy rains.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/jma-weeklies-seasonal-pattern-to-open-august/

Jun 18

Upcoming Week Headliners…

I. Drier and Cooler Air Returns:  A cold front will pass this evening and allow a much less humid and cooler air mass to return to the state.  Dew points will fall into the 50s by Monday morning and highs should only reach the upper 70s to around 80 Monday afternoon.  Refreshing air will remain in place through the day Tuesday.

A much less humid air mass will arrive to open the work week.

II. Watching the Gulf:  All eyes will be on the Gulf of Mexico this week as it tries to breed early season tropical “mischief.”  There are many more questions than answers right now concerning the all-important details (ultimate track and strength), but confidence is high on a depression or storm forming in the Gulf by middle to latter portions of the week.  Early thinking would place more emphasis on this being a big inland rain event across portions of the southeast, as opposed to this thing ramping up fast enough to be a big wind/ surge problem, but stay tuned.

Confidence is high on early season tropical development this week in the Gulf of Mexico.

III. Unsettled Weather Returns:  A storm system will approach the region by the latter portions of the work week, including the weekend.  As a result, a warmer and increasingly moist air mass will return and help spawn showers and thunderstorms.  Unfortunately, timing isn’t our friend as numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast Friday-Sunday.  Locally heavy rain is also a good bet.

Heavy rain and storm chances increase late week.

IV. June Ends On A Cool Note:  Once we get rid of the significant storm next weekend, an unseasonably cool air mass will build in over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley in the 8-10 day time period.  How do highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s sound and lows in the middle 50s?

Models agree on an unseasonably cool close to June.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/upcoming-week-headliners/

Jun 15

JMA Weeklies: Heat Relief Coming And An Active Pattern As We Get Into July…

The new JMA Weeklies are in and highlighted by the following:

  • Heat relief on the way through Week 1
  • Core of heat, relative to normal, backs west through the period
  • Active NW flow regime to open July

Week 1:  

The JMA Weeklies really try to emphasize the “transient” nature of the pattern and associated dry, hot weather some folks were becoming concerned about only a couple of days ago.  Week 1 is highlighted by a much wetter regime through the Ohio Valley and most of the East.  As the ridge pulls back west, a cooler regime returns to our region, while the Southwest bakes with anomalously hot weather.

Week 2:  

The pattern favors wetter than normal conditions across the upper Mid West, including Great Lakes.  The mean upper ridge is forecast to remain out west.  Fittingly, the warmest temperatures, relative to average, will be confined to the west.

Weeks 3-4:  

As we push into July, the upper pattern sets-up in a manner that will require us to keep a very close eye on storm potential.  With a northwest flow aloft, we’ll have to be mindful of the potential of storm clusters impacting the region- tracking northwest to southeast.  Through the balance of the period, the hottest weather should remain to our west, relative to normal.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/jma-weeklies-heat-relief-coming-and-an-active-pattern-as-we-get-into-july/