Category: Weekly Outlook

Dec 03

Sunday Mix; Heavier Winter Gear Needed Next Week…

screen-shot-2016-12-03-at-9-48-58-amHighlights:

  • Sunday mix
  • Wet Tuesday
  • Midweek snow and turning bitter

Winter Awaits…Today is chilly and dry. Thankfully, we’ll finally get to see the sun.  Enjoy it into the afternoon as clouds will quickly increase yet again later in the day as our next storm system approaches.

Speaking of that next system, moisture will spread into the chilly air mass Sunday morning.  Across central IN, this will fall as a wintry mix of light snow and chilly light rain.  Further north, this will be a mostly snow event, including a light accumulation possible (slushy amounts under 1″) across far northern portions of the state.  All-in-all, this won’t be a big deal.

We’ll have a brief break in between systems Monday before rain returns at night.  This is courtesy of another wave of low pressure lifting out of the northwest Gulf of Mexico, tracking northeast through the TN Valley and into southeastern Ohio.  Central Indiana snow lovers know that’s a classic track for snow around these parts this time of year.  We’ll keep an eye on it, but as of now, the air mass doesn’t look cold enough (yet).

A much colder pattern looms by the middle of next week.  Along with the arrival of the arctic air mass, we also favor a wave of low pressure delivering accumulating snow prospects Wednesday night into Thursday.  (That high Thursday will come at midnight with temperatures crashing through the day).  We’ll turn bitterly cold to close the week, including wind chills falling to around zero.

This is only the beginning of a very cold and wintry period.  There are plenty of “fun and games” awaiting as we rumble through the next couple weeks…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sunday-mix-heavier-winter-gear-needed-next-week/

May 10

Tuesday Morning Rambles…

1.) The month of May has gotten off to a chilly start and given the period of unseasonably chilly air that looms later this week, it’s safe to say these cool anomalies will grow even cooler. 

The coolest day looks to be Saturday with highs only in the mid 50s.


2.) In the shorter term, we’re keeping an eye on strong-severe thunderstorm potential this afternoon and evening across southern and central parts of the state. Large hail and damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern, but a quick spin-up tornado can’t be ruled out.




Not everyone will see heavy rain amounts today, but a few neighborhoods may deal with localized flooding issues as slow moving heavy storms potentially train over communities. Where this happens, 2″+ rain totals are a good bet by midnight.


3.) Forecast models remain in a state of disagreement concerning late this weekend into early next week. The GFS is particularly bullish on the idea of wet (heavy rain threat), chilly times whereas the European is much drier (and warmer). We’ll keep an eye on things and hope for consistency this afternoon. Speaking of this afternoon, we’ll have our updated 7-day posted later today! Make it a great Tuesday. 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tuesday-morning-rambles-3/

Jan 16

Bitter Week Ahead; What About Snow Chances?

January to date is running 2 degrees above normal at IND.  That number will drop significantly this week with the punch of arctic air inbound.

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anom

After a snowy week last week, we’ll attempt to make another run this week.  Despite model inconsistencies, we focus on Sunday morning, Tuesday night-Wednesday morning, and late week for accumulating snow prospects.  More on that in a minute.

Note the difference in snow cover, locally, when compared to this time last year.  Can we get things to look similar to image 2 below come late week?  We’re on the playing field, at the very least.

1

2The arctic surge of bitter air will blast into central IN Sunday morning late into the afternoon. Temperatures will be on the plunge, and reach the single digits come evening.  Wind chill values will go below zero Sunday afternoon.

Forecast temperatures around lunchtime Sunday. Source: Weatherbell.com

Forecast temperatures around lunchtime Sunday. Source: Weatherbell.com

Forecast temperatures Sunday evening. Source: Weatherbell.com

Forecast temperatures Sunday evening. Source: Weatherbell.com.

A blast of snow showers and embedded squalls will accompany the arctic surge Sunday morning and may accumulate up to an inch in spots.  Strong and gusty winds will create brief whiteout conditions from time to time.

1We eye the Tuesday night and Wednesday time frame for the next opportunity of accumulating snow.  A “plowable” snow may be in the works during this time frame and we’ll continue to keep a close eye on things.

Wednesday

Wednesday morning as depicted by the 12z GFS. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

Things remain very active moving forward.  While the model specifics differ significantly at this juncture (no surprise ;-)), it’s important to look at the overall picture and see the potential of a fairly widespread winter event late next week.f144ps2png-atls13-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-AYqVLj

Stay tuned.  There are significant differences between the potential of this event and the reality of the past several more significant precipitation makers.  – Namely a blocking cold high to the north as the more significant moisture arrives.  This will help supply the cold and limit the northward track to a point.  Is it a mostly snow event or do we get into the wintry mix potential?   Many questions will have to be answered in the days ahead.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/bitter-week-ahead-what-about-snow-chances/

Sep 28

Weekly Highlights: Tropical Weather Headlines…

Highlights928104There’s a whole slew of new products we’re going to start rolling out over the next several weeks, including more videos, as well.  One of the new features is a nationwide weekly highlight map, helping showcase the big-ticket weather items that have our attention over the upcoming week.  While we could side with going with fancy graphics, we chose to go the route of a hand drawn map for old time sakes.  🙂 This will be posted on Sunday or Monday of each week.

1.) A cold front will move through the Mid West and Ohio Valley during the early to middle portion of the work week and be responsible for putting a temporary delay in #harvest15.  While rainfall won’t be particularly heavy, it’ll help to serve up a fresh chill to the air as we progress from mid to late week.  A significant temperature reversal can be expected from 10-15 degrees above normal to 10 degrees below normal from early week to late week.

2.)  A tropical disturbance is plaguing the Gulf Coastal waters with rough surf, gusty winds, and heavy rain to open the week.  As this disturbance moves northeast, heavy rains will encompass a large portion of the southeast, as well as southern and central Appalachians, on up the eastern seaboard.

3.)  Perhaps of more importance is the way things evolve over the coming couple days with TD 11 and the overall weather pattern off the eastern seaboard.  If you live along the East Coast, you’ll want to pay particularly close attention to the goings on.  At the very least, an impactful system is ahead from a heavy rain and erosion perspective, but there’s also the potential of something more severe from a purely tropical stand point.

4.)  An area of low pressure will drop south along the Front Range late in the period and offer up beneficial moisture to not only the Front Range, but the central Plains.

As always, you can follow us on Twitter (@indywx) or e-mail us at bill@indywx.com for more on the variety of weather consulting we provide.  Have a great day and God Bless!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekly-highlights-tropical-weather-headlines/

Sep 08

More Winter Chatter…

Now that we’re in September (where does time go?!) we wanted to touch base on some of our latest thinking as we rumble closer to winter… * Our official 2015-2016…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/more-winter-chatter/