Category Archives: Weekly Outlook

JMA Weeklies: Heat Relief Coming And An Active Pattern As We Get Into July…

The new JMA Weeklies are in and highlighted by the following:

  • Heat relief on the way through Week 1
  • Core of heat, relative to normal, backs west through the period
  • Active NW flow regime to open July

Week 1:  

The JMA Weeklies really try to emphasize the “transient” nature of the pattern and associated dry, hot weather some folks were becoming concerned about only a couple of days ago.  Week 1 is highlighted by a much wetter regime through the Ohio Valley and most of the East.  As the ridge pulls back west, a cooler regime returns to our region, while the Southwest bakes with anomalously hot weather.

Week 2:  

The pattern favors wetter than normal conditions across the upper Mid West, including Great Lakes.  The mean upper ridge is forecast to remain out west.  Fittingly, the warmest temperatures, relative to average, will be confined to the west.

Weeks 3-4:  

As we push into July, the upper pattern sets-up in a manner that will require us to keep a very close eye on storm potential.  With a northwest flow aloft, we’ll have to be mindful of the potential of storm clusters impacting the region- tracking northwest to southeast.  Through the balance of the period, the hottest weather should remain to our west, relative to normal.

No Comments Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, JMA, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Weekly Outlook

Quiet Open To The Work Week Turns Stormy By Midweek…

After a blustery and chilly Saturday (and temperatures in the upper 30s to start our Sunday), a gorgeous close to the weekend is ahead.  Wall-to-wall sunshine is expected with moderating temperatures this afternoon.  Our average high on the 23rd of April is 66° and we should be very close to that later this afternoon.  Enjoy!

High pressure will remain entrenched over our area as we progress through the early portions of the work week.  This will provide pleasant weather and plentiful sunshine.  With a dry airmass in place, expect significant temperature swings.  Overnight lows in the 40s will quickly rise into the 70s Monday and Tuesday.

High pressure will dominate our early-week weather.

A southerly flow will help pull a more humid air mass northward Wednesday and as a cold front slices into the unseasonably warm and muggy airmass, we expect showers and thunderstorms to increase Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.  We still have some time to watch things evolve, but from this distance, we feel strong to severe thunderstorm potential is present during this period.  Locally heavy rains are also possible as PWATs zoom to 1.5″ +.

Precipitable water values will increase to 1.5″+ Wednesday and support the threat of locally heavy rain.

We’ll get into some briefly drier air to wrap up the work week, but a warm front will blow through the region Saturday and will likely be accompanied by thunderstorms as it lifts north.  Once the warm front passes, unseasonably warm and humid air will make a return and set the stage for a true summer-like feel next weekend.  We expect highs to go into the lower to middle 80s with a muggy feel, as well.

Finally, after Saturday morning thunder, we think the majority of next weekend is dry before a cold front brings a return to widespread showers and thunderstorms late Sunday.

No Comments Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Rain, Spring, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weekly Outlook

Looking At The Week Ahead…

The second half of the weekend will feature beautiful weather, albeit breezy conditions at times.  Strong southwesterly winds will gust upwards of 40 MPH this afternoon, but also aid in pushing mid to upper 70s northward into central Indiana.  Despite the strong winds, we still recommend finding a way to get outside and enjoy this weather!

Highs will run close to 15° above average this afternoon.

Stormy weather returns Monday as a frontal boundary slips into the state.  A couple storms may become strong or severe Monday afternoon and the Storm Prediction Center highlights northwestern portions of the state for a Slight Risk.  Damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern with any severe storm that may develop.

High pressure returns for midweek and supplies a dry regime, along with increasing sunshine and temperatures that will run slightly above average (mid-40s at night and 65°-70° during the day).

There are questions once to the end of the period as the GFS and European handle the evolution of our late-week storm differently.  The GFS brings energy out into the Ohio Valley and results in unsettled weather returning Friday, continuing into Easter weekend, while the European is slower.  We’ll keep an eye on things over the next few days and update accordingly.  The GFS suggests some localized heavier downpours would be possible in the Friday-Sunday period as the majority of the 7-day precipitation snapshot below falls within the timeframe.

No Comments Easter, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Severe Weather, Spring, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weekly Outlook, Windy

Word On The Weeklies…

New JMA Weeklies stream in on Thursday mornings and we send out a Thursday morning report, in detail, to our clients dissecting the latest data, but want to try and start making public comments on the model here, as well.

The overall idea after looking at the JMA Weeklies is wet and warm over the upcoming (4) weeks relative to average. That said, there will be periods of drier times, especially Week 1, and late season chill- as can be expected every April.

Week 1:

Week 2:

Weeks 3-4:

The big picture is one that shows a drier pattern developing across the East during Week 1, but we caution that this drier regime doesn’t look to “lock” in.  Data suggests we get back to an active pattern between Week’s 2-4, biased wetter than normal in the Mid West and Plains.  The other screaming message is that a busy severe season should continue through the period.  Cold sets up across the Pacific Northwest, associated with the “mean” trough position, while spring-like warmth continues to build across our region in overall terms.  We know what that means as storms eject off the Rockies and track east…

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Sunday Afternoon Rambles…

1.)  It’s another unseasonably pleasant afternoon across central Indiana.  Despite a gusty SW breeze (open county is approaching 40 MPH throughout central IN Sunday afternoon), the sunshine and warm temperatures are providing a phenomenal second half of the weekend.

Temperatures are running 20+ degrees above normal this afternoon.

2.)  Clouds will begin to increase tonight and give way to showers as we open the work week.  There will be plenty of dry time Monday morning into the afternoon, but a passing shower will remain in our forecast.  Heavier rain and embedded thunderstorms will arrive on the scene Monday night into the wee morning hours Tuesday.  As a whole, we expect between 0.50-1″ of rain, overall, by Tuesday morning.

Greatest rainfall coverage will arrive overnight Monday night.

3.)  We’ll trend cooler for the mid week stretch, but nothing “cold” for this time of year.  In fact, temperatures will remain above average as high pressure provides dry conditions.

Weak high pressure builds in for mid week.

4.)  Confidence is high on an active period of weather arriving for the weekend into potentially early parts of next week.  That said, despite overall high confidence on a busy time of things, the specifics remain “murky,” at best.  It’ll be important to check back for updates on the weekend forecast as we progress through the upcoming week.  Solutions range anywhere from a period of rain and storms to possibly some wintry “mischief.”  One thing seems certain and that’s for a period of colder air (below normal) arriving in the 8-10 day period.  In fact, the latest European model suggests overnight low in the 10s late next weekend.

The weather turns active next weekend.
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