An active, and at times stormy, pattern will remain into the new week. The setup remains the same and doesn’t need rehashing :-). While we’ll have to keep a close eye on the potential of morning convection around the area Sunday, thinking here is beginning to shift to Sunday night and predawn Monday as the next best chance of gusty storms and more widespread coverage of beneficial rain. A warm and muggy air mass will be in place and as vigorous upper level energy interacts with the tropical air, thunderstorms that initiate to our northwest should hold together, if not grow stronger moving into central Indiana.
Upper level energy will track across the state Sunday night and Monday morning.
Dew points are forecast to surge into the lower 70s Sunday night.
Precipitable water values will approach 2″ Sunday night and early Monday morning.
Forecast radar is beginning to pick up on potentially a noisy time of things Sunday night.
A warm and sticky air mass will remain in place through the first half of the work week before a frontal passage offers up a brief bout of slightly drier air for the middle of the week. Dew points will ease back into comfy range (50s) Wednesday and should also lead to a mostly dry day.
We’ll get to at least briefly enjoy a drier air mass Wednesday.
Humidity will build once again as we move into the latter portions of the work week and with the return of the summer mugginess will come a return of thunderstorm chances (scattered coverage Thursday and Friday).
An early look at next weekend shows general agreement with the GFS and European forecast models: drier air returning along with slightly cooler air. We’ll keep you updated!
By the time all is said and done late Monday night and early Tuesday, expect widespread rainfall totals between 0.50″ and 1″ with locally heavier amounts where the stronger storms track.
High pressure will build into the region through the midweek stretch and result in increasingly sunny and pleasant conditions. With a drier air mass in place, overnight lows will fall into the 50s through the midweek period.
Week 2:
Weeks 3-4:
28 Day Mean:
After the cold start to the month, the JMA Weeklies suggest ridges will “bookend” the country as November evolves, especially the Northeast region. This fits our research, as well, and fits the pattern, overall. If you haven’t had an opportunity to read our 