Category Archives: Weather Rambles

Warmth Dominates; Timing Out Storm Chances Over The Upcoming 10-Day Period…

After a month-to-date temperature anomaly map that looks like this:

…and a year-to-date that looks like this:

…sustained warmth is music to the ears of many Hoosiers!  Thankfully, the balance of the upcoming (10) days will feature warmer than average conditions, as illustrated by the latest European ensemble data.

This will include multiple days with high temperatures rising into the 80s over the upcoming 10-day stretch (Tuesday and Wednesday and again next Monday through Wednesday).

As for storm chances, dry times will continue to dominate Tuesday with plentiful sunshine. Clouds will begin to increase Wednesday and we can’t rule out an afternoon shower, but most should still remain dry.  Thursday and Friday will offer up the best chances of getting wet, including embedded thunder.

As for rainfall totals, it still appears widespread amounts will check-in in the half inch to one inch range, but a few locally heavier amounts can be expected.

Models continue to dry us out in time for the weekend and all of those important Cinco de Mayo/ Derby plans.  An increasingly sunny sky will be with us along with highs in the middle 70s Saturday afternoon!  Can you say “perfection?”

Looking ahead, I’m not sold we won’t have to deal with showers Sunday as a disturbance moves nearby (low confidence forecast from this distance).  More widespread showers and thunderstorms will arrive on the scene late next week…

We also note the majority of longer range guidance trending warmer for May. We’ll have some updated thoughts on that later this week!

No Comments 10-day, AG Report, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, Spring, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles

Weekend Rambles: Dry Conditions Remain; Sunday Morning Freeze…

I. A cold front blew through the state last night and we’ll deal with a gusty northerly breeze throughout the day. At times, periods of low clouds will be with us, especially into the early afternoon hours.  As skies clear and winds diminish tonight, a hard freeze is likely for most of central Indiana, including the potential of setting a new record low in Indianapolis (record low for Sunday is 31°).

II. High pressure will build in for the second half of the weekend and remain in control of our weather through the first half of the work week.  Dry conditions will remain along with a significant warming trend.

III. We’ll actually go above normal (for a change) through the early and middle parts of next week, including highs around 80° by Tuesday!

IV. Unsettled weather returns for the second half of the work week. Models differ on rainfall totals, but we’ll include mention of 7-day totals in the 0.75″ to 1.25″ range- most of which falls Thursday and Friday.

V. Cooler than normal temperatures will return for Week 2 so be sure to enjoy the warmth while we have it next week.

No Comments Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Plant '18, Rain, Spring, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Highlights, Weather Rambles

Midweek Weather Rambles: Calmer Times On The Horizon…

I. It’s a state divided this afternoon with winter across the northern third of the state (most are in the 30s), seasonable spring conditions central (low-mid 60s), and 70°+ downstate. Unfortunately, we’ll all turn colder tonight and as low pressure scoots east across the Ohio Valley, it’ll help pull a swath of wet snow across the northern half of Indiana after midnight through the predawn hours Thursday.  Further north and northeast, a wet accumulation of an inch or less can be expected.

II.  We’ll turn cooler to close the week, but with an increasingly sunny time of things, we forecast a very pleasant open to the weekend.  High pressure will remain in control of our weather into early next week.  Really the only item of interest will be a gusty easterly breeze at times Sunday into Monday.  We’ll watch a storm system get shunted south and stay dry here.  Overnight lows will remain chilly through the weekend.

III.  The next opportunity for meaningful precipitation should arrive the middle of next week (Tuesday-Wednesday) time frame, and even this doesn’t look like a big deal.  From this distance, it seems like 0.10″ to 0.25″ will come from that system.

IV.  As we look ahead, the relative cold looks to relax as we put a wrap on April and open May.  Additionally, we also note the EPS painting much of the northern tier into the Ohio Valley with a drier than normal signal.  Sure looks like conditions are finally improving for #Plant18 to get underway in earnest…

No Comments 10-day, AG Report, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Plant '18, Rain, snow, Spring, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weather Rambles

Looking Ahead To The Merry Month Of May…

Folks are growing tired of the cold and snow, and for good reason; it’s mid-April for goodness sakes.  As of today, we’re currently ranked as the 5th snowiest spring (March-May) in recorded history, with Indianapolis recording 14.2″ thus far.  By the way, we’re only .3″ from moving into the 4th place spot.

With that said, it’s not just April that’s been unusually cold and snowy, but the entire year thus far.  As of April 15th, year-to-date CONUS temperatures are running more than 1° below average:

More specific to Indianapolis, here’s the monthly temperature breakdown so far for 2018:

  • April: 5.7° below normal (MTD)
  • March: 3.3° below normal
  • February: 5.6° above normal
  • January: 3.0° below normal

As we look ahead, there are a couple of key items that we’re monitoring closely to get a better idea as to where this pattern is heading as we rumble into the merry month of May:

NAO- does it show signs of finally flipping to a positive state with any sort of duration?

MJO- does it go into the “wheelhouse” or continue to rumble into the milder phases (5 and 6 this time of year)?

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a bit troubling as it shows signs of heading towards a negative phase once again as we open the month of May.  This would promote the threat of colder than normal temperatures continuing in early May. With that said, May is the first month of the next several (until winter returns) where the overall influence of the NAO state begins to lessen it’s grip.  Unlike from the mid and late winter months into the early spring (Jan through April), mid and late spring, through the fall, isn’t controlled by the NAO.  With May being a “transition” month, we’ll favor a colder than average pattern continuing during the early portion of May as the NAO looks to trend negative.  As we move towards mid and late month, we won’t rely on the NAO like we have been lately as the said influence “wanes.”

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forecast by most data to head towards the “null” phase.  The consensus of modeling takes it into the wheelhouse after traversing Phase 3 (present) which is a cold phase.  The end result?  Unfortunately, we can’t rely on the MJO with any sort of confidence from this distance for the month of May.

Looking at the data itself, the CFSv2 and European Weeklies (just to name a couple) show conflicting ideas.  The CFSv2 (courtesy of weatherbell.com) is in the warmer than normal camp for May while the NEW European Weeklies (courtesy of weathermodels.com) suggest the chill lingers throughout the month.

While we have conflicting temperature ideas, both suggest a drier than average month emerging:

At the end of the day, our call on May’s forecast from mid-April would be for an early cooler than average start before flipping towards more of a seasonable to slightly warmer than normal regime.  Our idea all along this spring has been that when this pattern flips, the potential is present to jump right to a summery feel.  In the face of the new European Weeklies, we still feel this warmer idea mid and late May is on the table.  We’re in agreement with the data of a drier than average month.

No Comments AG Report, Arctic Cold, Autumn, CFSv2, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Long Range Discussion, MJO, Monthly Outlook, NAO, snow, Spring, Summer, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles