1.) July, MTD, is running slightly cooler (- 0.1°) and much wetter (+ 2.31″) than average across the region.
2.) While the radar is rain and storm-free this morning, a left over boundary, combined with daytime heating will help spark isolated to widely scattered storm coverage this afternoon.
3.) The big weather story this week will be an increasingly hot and humid feel once to mid and late week, including the weekend. While today will continue the theme of slightly cooler than average from the weekend, we’ll more than make up for the refreshing feel later this week. Highs will push to around 90° Wednesday through Sunday as the ridge expands.
4.) Despite the hot and humid feel that develops this week, it won’t last. Like so many other times this summer that heat tries to build east, the transient weather pattern will continue to prevent it from “hitting and holding.” You guessed it, as we transition from the hot conditions to cooler weather next week, rain and storm chances will be on the increase, including the potential of heavy rain. As of now, best rain and storm chances appear lined up for late week through the weekend and into early next week.
2.) With the increasing warmth and humidity will also come an increase in shower and thunderstorm chances today through Saturday. Most widespread coverage of thunderstorms should occur during the evening hours today and Friday night into Saturday morning. Drier air will try and work in Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Here’s a look at the forecast radar valid at 7p this evening.
3.) While we should dry things out Saturday afternoon into Sunday, active times will return early next week. We’ll have to fine tune timing, but the period Monday into Independence Day may feature a rather strong storm complex moving in a southeast fashion across the region. Again, details still have to be determined. While strong storms are possible at some point during the period, more dry time than wet can be expected.
4.) The latest JMA Weeklies are in and while we’ll have a more extensive post this evening on the weekly breakdown, the screaming message to us is an active period continues along with cooler anomalies setting up shop across the central, including our region.
Best overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms should come in (3) waves over the upcoming 10-day period:
As I type this outside on the back porch this evening, I hear the sounds of sprinklers in full-force through the ‘hood. Thankfully, Mother Nature will help save on the water bill later this week. Longer-term, you’ll hear us use the word “transient” many times this summer when discussing the overall weather pattern. Thankfully that tends to result in a fairly busy time of things. Before you know it, college football season will be back (83 days until my beloved Auburn Tigers kick-off), those wetter autumn storms will return, and thoughts will begin to shift to winter (they may have already started here :-))- not that we’re trying to rush summer away or anything…
2.) We’ll get a breather on Tuesday, but our next storm system will move in quickly and begin impacting central Indiana during the day Wednesday. A couple strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and will require our attention over the next day, or so. We’ll have more details with our updated 7-day later today.
3.) We’ll get into the colder side of the storm to close the work week and thoughts will shift from storms to snow. Wind-whipped snow showers will be a good bet in the unseasonably cold air Thursday into Friday morning.
4.) Timing will once again be our friend as we push into the weekend. Weak high pressure will arrive on the scene and help ensure dry conditions. After a cold start Saturday, a moderating trend will develop.
2.) Speaking of cold, to-date, March is running slightly colder than average (by 1.1°). Note the spring and summer-like warmth across the SW. “Pieces” of that warmth will eject northeast in modified fashion late March into April.
3.) High pressure will supply a dry, but cold Wednesday. Highs will run close to 10° below average (lower 40s), but at least we’ll enjoy the sun!
4.) Temperatures will begin to warm as we progress through the latter portions of the week. We’ll be near seasonal norms Thursday (low 50s), and above normal Friday into the weekend (mid-upper 60s). With the warmer air, rain and storm chances will also be on the increase. As of now, we target best rain chances late Saturday into Sunday. A couple thunderstorms are also possible. Rainfall totals of 0.50″-1.00″ seem like a good bet with locally heavier amounts.
5.) This is just the beginning of an active stretch of weather to wrap up the month of March. (3) additional storms will have to be monitored next week. Accordingly, precipitation anomalies will run above normal.