Category: Weather Rambles

Oct 05

Saturday Morning Rambles…

I. Our Saturday will get off to a stunning start. Despite some patchy fog here and there, look for plentiful sunshine and chilly temperatures in the low-mid 40s rising into the low-mid 70s for afternoon highs with increasing clouds.

II. Those increasing clouds will deliver showers by tonight across central Indiana and then more concentrated heavier rain downstate Sunday evening into the predawn Monday. Southern Indiana is needing a good soaking in a bad way and this system will at least help things slowly begin to improve…

Forecast radar 11p Saturday.
Forecast radar 9a Sunday.

Rainfall totals with this system across central Indiana should accumulate to the tune of 0.20 to 0.40 for most with heavier amounts approaching 1” across the IN-KY border.

Note this is where things are driest across the state per Thursday’s drought update.

III. Our next storm system will swing through here late in the work week. We’re timing Thursday PM into early Friday for a round of showers and potentially gusty thunderstorms as a cold front pushes through.

Behind this boundary, the coldest air of the fall so far will blow into town. We’re continuing to think many of the area can expect the first frost of the season next weekend.

IV. As we look ahead, it’s time to start putting more stock into other tools in the box. Case in point, the MJO is showing signs of less amplitude over the upcoming couple weeks followed by a strongly positive PNA. This supports colder signals in the period. We’ll dig in further in the days ahead.

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Sep 12

Thursday Morning Rambles: Warmth Continues To Dominate Over The Next 10 Days…

A “cold front” will pass Friday evening. Despite the threat of a couple widely scattered storms this afternoon/ evening, a broken line of storms may accompany the front Friday afternoon and evening. We’re not expecting widespread rain or storm activity with the passage of this front and some yards won’t see a drop of rain over the next couple of days.

A couple of storms may fire up ahead of the frontal boundary Friday afternoon, but widespread rain isn’t expected.
We’ll notice a wind shift from the southwest to west behind the frontal boundary Friday evening.

While somewhat drier air will briefly work into the region Saturday, temperatures will remain well above average. The humidity will return next week.

As we look ahead over next week, generally quiet conditions are anticipated. The big story in the weather department will be the continuation of summer-like heat and an active time of things in the tropics.

Let’s start with the tropics. Guidance overnight has trended further east with the disturbance that at one time appeared it was heading for the Gulf of Mexico. Instead, our East Coast friends should take note of the disturbed weather in the Caribbean. Some model guidance spins this up into a hurricane over the upcoming weekend as it at least “flirts” with the Southeast US coast (perhaps in an eerily similar fashion as Dorian). The item in the open Atlantic is another we’ll have to keep close eyes on for Week 2 for the Gulf of Mexico. Unfortunately, the upper pattern is a favorable one for the Southeast US coastline to experience a landfall over the next couple of weeks…

That same pattern through the next couple of weeks is also one that will continue to produce an “extended summer” across the East.

As we look ahead to next weekend, there’s the potential of a stronger cold front offering up more organized rain/ storm chances followed by a stronger cool shot. We’ll have more on this threat in our Weekly AG/ Severe Weather Outlook published this weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/thursday-morning-rambles-warmth-continues-to-dominate-over-the-next-10-days/

Sep 03

Pulling The Curtain Back On The Medium Range Pattern…

A cold front will sink south across the state this evening. As the front moves through the area, we expect thunderstorms to increase in coverage and intensity across northern Indiana over the next few hours. These storms should push off to the south during the overnight, weakening as they do so. We still aren’t expecting much in the way of widespread severe weather across immediate central Indiana.

Once the front passes, northwest winds will take over during the predawn hours and help push a drier and cooler brand of air south into the region.

The cold front will move through central Indiana during the overnight hours.

Thereafter, get used to unseasonably cool air, to the tune of what we’d normally expect by late September, for the 2nd half of the week- including this weekend. Mostly dry weather is expected to prevail through the period.

As we look ahead to next week, moderating temperatures are expected next Tuesday and Wednesday, including lower to middle 80s. That said, we do have questions if the warmth will have staying power.

We note the MJO “toying around” with the warmer Phase 6 for a time before returning to Phase 5 (a cooler phase this time of year).

Add in the fact that the EPS and GEFS are in disagreement in handling the EPO in the medium term and this results in lower confidence in the overall staying power of the warmth come mid month.

Unfortunately, this time of year, the tools we can really “lean on” for indications of where the longer range pattern will head are limited (compared to late fall through early spring). That’s when we can really focus on the other drivers such as the AO, NAO, PNA, recurving WPAC tropical activity, etc.

As such, while we continue to believe the pattern trends warmer after the cool spell into the weekend, patience is required with respect to the staying power of said warmth…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/pulling-the-curtain-back-on-the-medium-range-pattern/

Aug 30

Widely Scattered Light Showers Through Labor Day Weekend; Tracking A Strong Cold Front Late Next Week…

A frontal boundary will continue to settle south this morning and we’ll notice a much less humid feel tonight into Saturday morning as a northeast wind takes hold.

Dew points will fall into the 50s tonight into Saturday morning across the northern half of the state.

Widely scattered light showers will scoot across the state late tonight into Saturday morning.

We’re still not expecting heavy or widespread organized rain this Labor Day weekend- just widely scattered “nuisance” level showers at times. There will be many more dry hours than wet through the holiday weekend.

Most area rain gauges can expect to pick up between 0.25″ and 0.50″ by Monday afternoon.

The big story this weekend will be Hurricane Dorian. We anticipate Dorian to strengthen into a major hurricane later today. The latest official National Hurricane Center forecast brings Dorian into the southeast Florida peninsula as a major hurricane late Labor Day night or Tuesday. While confidence continues to increase on an eventual landfall along the Florida peninsula (before a hard turn right that would take Dorian either north across the peninsula or perhaps wobble back off shore), timing is much more uncertain as the majority of data has slowed the forward progress of Dorian this weekend. If you have interests across the state or loved ones in the path of the storm, it’ll be important to stay tuned for future updates.

Back here on the home front, quiet weather is expected through early week. The first of 2 cold fronts will pass Tuesday night or early Wednesday (little in the way of fanfare with that frontal passage).

The second front will be a bigger deal late next week. Though still rather moisture starved, it’s the drop in temperatures expected behind the frontal passage that will be impressive. We’ll notice an October-level chill next weekend as this front sweeps off to the southeast. We note the latest European data has highs only in the 60s next weekend with lows in the 40s.

Meanwhile, it’s very possible we’ll still be dealing with Dorian this time next week along the southeast US costal region…

Much more through the weekend, including updates on Dorian, the season’s 1st strong fall frontal passage, and our September Outlook.

Enjoy your Friday, friends!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/widely-scattered-light-showers-through-labor-day-weekend-tracking-a-strong-cold-front-late-next-week/

Aug 25

Sunday Morning Rambles…

I. The dry air we’ve enjoyed the past couple of days will be replaced with an increasingly moist air mass to open the work week.

II. With that will come an increase in cloud cover later today and the possibility of a couple of showers. Better coverage of showers and embedded thunder will return Monday into Tuesday.

Rainfall amounts of 0.25” to 0.75” can be expected during this time period with some neighborhoods accumulating close to an inch.

III. A cold front will sweep across the Ohio Valley for midweek leading to a return of dry and unseasonably cool conditions. This will be followed by a second frontal passage Labor Day weekend that will serve to reinforce the cooler than normal air.

Will have a more detailed post, including longer range thoughts later this evening, friends.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sunday-morning-rambles-5/