Category: Weather Rambles

Apr 09

You Knew It Was Coming: Cold “Jab” Dialed Up Early Week 2…

Updated 04.09.23 @ 4:37p

First and foremost, here’s wishing you and your family a very happy and blessed Easter Sunday! The week ahead doesn’t offer up much “excitement” in the weather department, but that comes to a screeching halt early week 2 as a potent storm system finally delivers a return of precipitation, and perhaps more notably, an unseasonably cold “jab” of air!

In the short-term, high pressure will dominate the upcoming work week, including a “rinse and repeat” regime of sunny days along with moderating temperatures.

Highs will climb into the mid to upper 70s by the 2nd half of the work week. Dry conditions will prevail.

It’s not until this weekend when unsettled weather will return to central Indiana and the Ohio Valley as a whole. This is all thanks to a cold front and associated area of low pressure.

Though early, model consensus shows a “cut off” low developing early next week, keeping unsettled conditions in play. It’s not just the likelihood of lingering precipitation, but a significant push of late season chilly air is also dialed up to plunge into the region. In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the air grow cold enough where rain showers may mix with and change to wet snow showers.

Regardless if we’re talking snow or not, highs in the 40s with lows in the 20s will be a bitter pill to swallow after the extended stretch of pleasant (and increasingly warm) weather we’ll continue enjoying through the week…

We’re targeting early next week for a “jab” of unseasonably cold air.

Needless to say, this system will be a topic of discussion through the upcoming week. More in our Client video discussion Monday morning!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/you-knew-it-was-coming-cold-jab-dialed-up-early-week-2/

Mar 05

Sunday Afternoon Rambles…

Updated 03.05.23 @ 5:08p

I. If you can, be sure to spend some time outside this afternoon or Monday. Highs into the 50s this afternoon will be replaced with mid to upper 60s across central IN Monday afternoon. While shower chances will return across northern parts of the state Monday morning, most of the day should be dry, locally. A few showers could sneak in here tomorrow evening (shown below) but not before what should otherwise be an unseasonably pleasant open to the work week.

Highs should zoom into the middle 60s Monday.
A few light showers may move in towards 5p, or so, Monday. Eastern and northern portions of the area appear at greatest risk of a passing shower Monday evening.

II. A colder airmass will settle south into the region for midweek. We’re talking about lows falling back below freezing and highs in the 40s with a gusty northerly breeze at times, but we should stay on the dry side.

III. Our next system of significance is slated to impact the area as we close out the work week. Models are struggling mightily with respect on how they handle upper level energy transferring to the east coast. As such, operational guidance ranges anywhere from more of a “white to wet” solution in the Thursday evening and Friday time frame. We still have time to watch things unfold but the initial thought is that this won’t be a big deal from a wintry perspective, locally. At this point, I’m not even confident enough to say this will be a heavy precipitation producer, but can see a scenario where that changes should the energy phase a little sooner. Stay tuned, but as of now, it appears as if the pattern will be too progressive to allow this to become a big event for our immediate region.

IV. Another system appears likely to open up early next week, but similar to our late week system, there are more questions than answers at this distance. While confidence remains high on a continued active pattern and one that also turns progressively colder (compared to normal), the all-important specific details are up for great debate.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sunday-afternoon-rambles-5/

Feb 25

Saturday Morning Rambles: Eyes On Severe Threat To Open The Week And Winter’s Return…

Updated 02.25.23 @ 8:28a

  1. The remainder of our weekend should be quiet on the weather front. Take the opportunity to enjoy a calmer couple of days as an active week awaits.
  2. A warm front will lift north through the region Sunday night with showers and embedded thunder. Temperatures will jump back into the lower and middle 60s across the southern portion of the state Monday morning. As a cold front swings into the relatively warmer and moist airmass, a line of stronger storms will be a good bet across the southern half of Indiana late Monday morning into early afternoon. A few of these may produce damaging winds and large hail, and there’s also potential for a quick spin up tornado. Strong and gusty winds (40-50 MPH) can also be expected across the entire region outside of storms.

3. Attention will then shift to mid week as multiple pieces of energy try and bundle together to generate another size-able storm. Confidence on any one particular solution is low at this distance, but with colder air pressing east, this system will likely have a more widespread wintry component on the north and west flank. No reason to speculate further from this distance, but know we’ll continue closely monitoring trends.

4. Finally, it continues to look like any and all who believed winter was over will be sorely mistaken. Confidence continues to grow in a cold to much colder than normal 2nd half of March, which likely continues to push into at least early April. Note the updated European Weeklies for the time period March 10 to April 10. That’s a classic look for significant late season cold. We’re also likely far from finished with wintry precipitation…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/saturday-morning-rambles-eyes-on-severe-threat-to-open-the-week-and-winters-return/

Feb 19

Few Miles Makes All The Difference This Week…

Updated 02.19.23 @ 5:54p

Spring will most certainly be in the air this week, at least for some. At the same time, there will be all sorts of whaling and gnashing of teeth for other areas that will be close to basking in the warmth, but yet so far at the same time. Note the significant temperature gradient that will set up shop across the region in the Tuesday through Thursday time frame.

A well organized area of low pressure will ride east along the stalled boundary separating the chill and near record breaking warmth. This feature will be responsible for widespread rain, locally, and an icy mixture of precipitation across the southern Great Lakes region. Steadiest rain will likely fall Wednesday evening and night before drier, colder air works in here to close the work week.

Despite a widespread 0.50” to 1” of rain during the aforementioned time period, at least the southern 2/3 of the state will enjoy 60°+ (in some cases 70°) weather midweek. Yes, spring fever will be running rampant.

We’ll likely do this all over again late in the weekend or early next week…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/few-miles-makes-all-the-difference-this-week/

Feb 09

MJO And Other Drivers Aligning For Cold Close To Meteorological Winter; Open To Spring?

Updated 02.09.23 @ 8:53p

After a bitter Christmas period, the “snap back” came on with authority. The mild start to the year has carried into February. A look at the past (30) days:

Despite multiple attempts, the cold “jabs” haven’t had any staying power. In the short term (upcoming 10-14 days), an overall milder than normal regime will carry the day.

With that said, longer range teleconnections are providing clues that the pattern may, indeed, begin to resemble a more sustained colder than normal temperature regime by late February, continuing through the bulk of March:

Negative NAO:

Negative WPO:

Negative AO:

Negative EPO:

Then, perhaps most significant, the MJO is showing signs of cycling in Phase 8 to close February and open March.

Both periods feature a cold, to much colder than normal, pattern in Phase 8:

MJO Phase 8: Feb

MJO Phase 8: March

Perhaps the latest European Weeklies for late Feb through late March are onto the correct idea…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/mjo-and-other-drivers-aligning-for-cold-close-to-meteorological-winter-open-to-spring/