Category: Weather Rambles

May 20

Extended Period Of Dry Weather; Warming Trend Next Week…

Updated 05.20.23 @ 6a

A cold front settled south across Indiana Friday evening. Most area rain gauges picked up anywhere between a tenth and 1/3 of an inch but a few lucky neighborhoods cashed in on up to half an inch. Whatever amount of rain you received last night, cherish it.

As we look forward, an extended dry period and quiet weather can be expected. This overall dry, calm pattern will prevail through the entire week ahead. As moisture levels slowly begin to increase over the holiday and all-important Indy 500 weekend, small rain chances may sneak back into the forecast, but even this is very unlikely from this distance.

High pressure will result in dry skies and plenty of sunshine in the week ahead (despite some haze from time to time, courtesy of those Canadian wild fires).

The focus is really just on temperatures over the next few days. The cool and dry airmass that reinforced itself behind our frontal passage will remain in control through Monday and then we’ll see moderating temperatures through the upcoming work week. Despite the temperature “uptick,” dry air will remain in place through the week. Great times for outdoor activities, no doubt, in the week ahead.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/extended-period-of-dry-weather-warming-trend-next-week/

May 06

Now This Is More Like It…

Updated 05.06.23 @ 7:11a

A new pattern is emerging (at least for the time being) and will offer up a much more typical feel by May standards, along with periods of storms as we navigate the early portion of the new week.

The good news is that our Saturday continues to look dry.

Attention will shift off to our west and northwest later this evening for the potential of local overnight rumbles on into Sunday morning. This will be the onset of more of an unsettled pattern, including multiple storm complexes to track at times through Tuesday.

Severe weather parameters certainly aren’t “off the charts” but there will be enough energy and moisture to signal a localized damaging wind threat Sunday and Monday with any storm cluster(s) that flare up.

Rainfall amounts won’t be uniform but localized 1”+ amounts can be expected with more of a general 0.50” to 1” area-wide rain in the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe.

Drier air and a brief ridge of high pressure will eliminate rain and storm chances Wednesday through Friday.

Unfortunately, as it looks now, moisture levels will rise significantly heading into Mother’s Day weekend and a return of unsettled weather will follow during this time period.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/now-this-is-more-like-it-4/

Apr 27

More Rumblings Around The Mid-May Pattern Change…

Updated 04.27.23 @ 2:07a

May will open with a continuation of unseasonably chilly weather. We’re even looking at the potential of an additional frost threat early next week.

But there are changes in the offing just beyond the 10th, or so. The NAO trends neutral.

And the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is heading towards the balmy (for May standards) Phase 6.

While there will be some questions with respect to the longevity of the warm-up, we should see a notable flip in the pattern just beyond the first 1/3 of the month, including much warmer weather across our neck of the woods and a good chunk of the east as a whole.

I would anticipate models to trend warmer in that Weeks 2-3 timeframe over the course of the next couple of days.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/more-rumblings-around-the-mid-may-pattern-change/

Apr 18

Note On Late Week…

Updated 04.18.23 @ 7:15p

Today’s guidance is starting to hone in on the most likely scenario as we close out the work week and head into the weekend. After a couple days of what sure seemed like “far fetched” solutions being printed out by the GFS, it’s trended much closer towards what the European was showing this morning. The model is actually more like a “blend” of the two ideas from this morning.

We continue to believe the initial wave of moisture will arrive Thursday evening (after a very warm and dry day). This will then be followed by a second surge of moisture Friday night into Saturday morning (lasting into Saturday afternoon across eastern Indiana). This second wave of precipitation will likely be more widespread and heavier for the eastern half of the state during the aforementioned time frame. As colder air gets pulled into the region, wrap-around precipitation will mix with wet snow (yet again) Saturday night into Sunday morning. High pressure should then build overhead allowing for the coldest air to settle in Sunday night and Monday morning (potentially with a repeat Tuesday morning depending on the timing of our next system). If skies clear as anticipated, the potential remains for overnight lows to dip into the upper 20s.

As mentioned above, forecast models are now in much better agreement regarding rainfall placement and amounts (heaviest across central and eastern IN) with this event.

We’ll see if these trends hold firm overnight and be sure to cover this (and more) in our Client video discussion Wednesday morning!

Make it a relaxing evening!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/note-on-late-week/

Apr 13

Thursday Morning Rambles: More “Exciting” Weather Creeps Back In…

Updated 04.13.23 @ 6a

I. We’ve got one more boring wx day on our hands before conditions slowly begin to turn more active as we head into the weekend. Short-term, high resolution data suggests a couple scattered showers or storms are possible Friday afternoon and evening. While the best forcing will remain to our south and east, we may be able to crank out a couple downpours as moisture levels increase through the PM. This certainly isn’t anything to cancel plans over, but just prepare for a passing downpour in spots.

II. Better chances of more organized rain and thunder will arrive Saturday evening into Sunday morning. While this still doesn’t appear to be a particularly heavy event for most of the region, guidance continues to trend wetter with this system. What all week looked like a 0.10” to 0.25” type situation now very well may end up in the 0.50” to 1” range. Not terrible for a region running drier than average month to date.

III. As colder air sweeps in behind the system, rain will mix with wet snow across northern parts of the state as we open the new week. The rest of us can expect a couple days (Monday and Tuesday) with highs in the mid to upper 50s and lows in the mid to upper 30s.

IV. The early portion of the work week will feature a return of dry weather but it’s safe to say next week won’t be nearly as uneventful as a whole. We’re tracking a midweek system that will deliver a few showers Wednesday and a more organized storm system that should provide a better coverage of rain and embedded thunder to close the work week. More on all of this and a long range look ahead in tonight’s Client video discussion!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/thursday-morning-rambles-more-exciting-weather-creeps-back-in/