Category: Weather Rambles

Nov 23

Changeable Monday; Note On Thanksgiving; Warm Open To December…

We wanted to touch on a few items of business this evening.  There’s a lot of weather going on this week…

Monday will feature drastic changes in the weather department across central Indiana:

  • Day starts mild and with lingering showers.
  • Strong and gusty winds will reach speeds of 45-50 MPH.  Batten down the hatches!
  • Temperatures crash late morning into the afternoon.  We start in the lower 50s, but fall to the freezing mark for the drive home across western parts of the state.  Eastern Indiana will see 32 degree air by 7-8 o’clock.
  • Scattered snow showers and flurries will fly across central Indiana Monday evening.

Thanksgiving Cold And Snow:

Temperatures will be much colder than average (low to mid 30s for highs and middle 20s for lows).  We’re still tracking a weak disturbance that could distribute light snow across central Indiana Thanksgiving Day.  Accumulations, if any, would fall in the dusting to less than 1″ range.

Opening December Warm:

We’ve been talking about how this exceptionally cold and wintry early season pattern would have to “relax” at some point and that appears to be the case as we open December.  The potential is there for well above normal warmth for the first week to ten days of December before we reload the pattern and introduce colder, more wintry times for mid and late month (anyone dreaming of a White Christmas)?

B3Kv8sVIEAASt_2

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/11/23/changeable-monday-note-on-thanksgiving-warm-open-to-december/

Nov 20

Thursday Night Rambles…

There’s a lot of weather to discuss over the upcoming 7-10 days, so in no particular order of most or least important, here’s what’s on our mind… 1.) Light freezing…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/11/20/thursday-night-rambles/

Oct 07

Tuesday Morning Rambles…

1.) We posted our weekly outlook last night and this can be found below.  An active weather pattern continues.  2.) A cold front will move through the region later this evening. As a result, showers and embedded thunder will be around into the afternoon hours before drier, cooler air builds in tonight behind the front.  Forecast radar shows rain and embedded storm chances continuing into the afternoon:

hrrr_ref_ma_10

3.) Wednesday looks like the pick of the week with plentiful sunshine and pleasantly cool temperatures.  4.) Rain and storm chances return as early as Thursday into Friday.  5.) Friday stands to be quite an ugly day with rain chances and a new push of unseasonably chilly air.  A big thermal fight will be in place Friday as portions of northern Indiana don’t make it out of the 40s while temperatures across far southern areas of the state go into the 70s.  More specific to our region, look for falling daytime temperatures starting in the upper 50s.

gfs_t2m_east_31

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/07/tuesday-morning-rambles/

Aug 25

Monday Evening Rambles…

1.) What exciting news we had the pleasure of sharing earlier this morning.  We’re pumped for our partnership with the fine folks over at IndySportsReport.com!

2.)  The steering current will keep us on our toes over the coming days as periodic storm clusters threaten.  It’s tough to pin point precise timing or location where these storm complexes will track, but it’s safe to say the overall region will be a focal point for additional storminess in the days ahead.

stormtrack

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.) Heat and humidity remain in the oppressive range through late week, before a potential punch of slightly cooler/ drier air.  Admittedly, ridges can be difficult to move this time of year and models are struggling in handling the details in the mid range.  We’ll keep an eye on things. As of now, we don’t see any sort of major push of cool/ refreshing air through at least the short to mid range period.  The Canadian is the most bullish on a period of cooler air as we get into September.  Stay tuned.

4.) We’ve made up for lost time in the rainfall department over the past week, or so.  What was, initially, a bone dry August has improved.  We’re now only running a little more than three tenths behind where we should be, officially.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/25/monday-evening-rambles/

Aug 20

Wednesday Morning Rambles…

The combination of passing storms and the setting sun Tuesday evening provided sun incredible rainbows. Thanks to John Feister for sharing this photo taken near Whitestown. John Salewicz snapped this…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/20/wednesday-morning-rambles-2/

Aug 13

Cool Close To The Work Week; Longer Range Talk…

Clouds will increase this evening and an isolated shower is possible though most will remain dry.  More on this and a look ahead to the weekend and beyond in the…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/13/cool-close-to-the-work-week-longer-range-talk/

Aug 10

Another Cool Period Looming Before We Crank The Heat…

Cooler than normal air masses have been lined up this summer as frequently as airliners waiting to land at Atlanta-Hartsfield airport. With that said, it’s only fitting that we’re targeting…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/10/another-cool-period-looming-before-we-crank-the-heat/

Jul 16

Wednesday Evening Update; No Reason To Think Any Sort Of Sustained Heat Is In Our Future.

Good evening. The video covers some of the short and mid range details as we move forward.  Dry and cool air will give way to a more humid regime over the weekend.  An active and biased cooler than normal pattern remains in the mid to long range, per the GFS (and European, as well) ensembles below.

gefs_z500anom_nh_65

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/16/wednesday-evening-update-no-reason-to-think-any-sort-of-sustained-heat-is-in-our-future/

Jun 26

Thursday Evening Weather Rambles…

1.) After a relatively dry day (though don’t tell Indy’s northwest communities that) Thursday, rain chances will begin to creep back into our forecast over the weekend as humidity levels…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/26/thursday-evening-weather-rambles/

Jun 17

Still Anticipate Late June Changes…

We asked this question on our Twitter account earlier this morning.  Do you prefer heat and humidity or frigid and snowy?  Here’s a look out the back door from the IndyWx.com HQ from this morning and then back to right after the early January winter storm.  Note the snow depth on the fence line.  Amazing stuff!

BqVrtazCQAAKGVy.jpg-largeBqVrtMxCYAA-OdA.jpg-large

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anyway…as we look ahead, we still anticipate an overall regime change as we progress through the upcoming weekend and into next week.

Model data remains in rather good agreement on the evolution of the upper air pattern over the course of the upcoming 7-10 day period.  The GFS is a touch more aggressive on the eastern trough when compared to the European, but both agree on week 2 cooling, as do we.

test8

 

 

 

 

 

 

This won’t be tremendously cool air (such as last weekend), but when compared to averages, we’re likely to cool things back to slightly below normal.

The PSD shows the changes, as well.  Note the current eastern ridge is replaced by the Day 10 eastern trough.

z500_anom_f024_ussmz500_anom_f240_ussm

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The precipitation idea is one that is continued wet.  Our three primary mid range global models (GFS, Canadian, Euro) agree on widespread rainfall totals of 1.5″-3″ (locally heavier totals where stronger thunderstorms move) over the next 10 days.  Here’s a closer look at the Canadian, thanks to the model suite at Weatherbell Analytics.

cmc_total_precip_ma_41

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/17/still-anticipate-late-june-changes/

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