Feb 20
Quick update from the road this morning- a more extensive video update will hit later this evening with fresh long range thoughts! I. Upper level energy and reinforcing cold air…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/thursday-morning-rambles-4/
Feb 16
With the exception of a rain maker blowing through the region Monday evening into Tuesday, we’re heading into a relatively quiet weather pattern for the upcoming 7-8 days. A couple of days of well below average temperatures will follow Tuesday’s cold front before weekend moderation takes place. With the shift in the pattern (albeit likely only for a brief period of time), we thought we’d look ahead to what may loom to close February and head into March.
As we’ve discussed in the past, the EPO and MJO are the keys to the pattern, and will continue to be through March. Some of the recent trends with both features would suggest cold is going to fight back as we head into late Feb and early March (spike positive in the EPO also boosts our confidence the pattern will warm over the weekend and into early parts of Week 2). This would likely be met with a return of an active storm track through our neck of the woods.
Both the GEFS and EPS paint a developing negative EPO as we close the month and welcome March. Secondly, the MJO is looking more and more like it’ll move out of the traditional winter warm phases and towards a much colder Phase 8. Collectively, these features should give pause to anyone thinking the kick-off to meteorological spring will be met with dry, warm weather. In reality, the opposite would more than likely result- stormy with colder than normal weather.
This is also the time we begin leaning more heavily on the influence a negative NAO can have on the pattern. Should this teleconnection get into the negative territory in March, then we’d be talking about a potential colder pattern lasting for 10-14 days towards one that would reload to result in colder, wintry conditions lasting into April. While not there yet, it’s certainly worth keeping an eye on in the coming days and weeks.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/meteorological-spring-a-couple-weeks-away-but-trends-suggest-winters-not-done/
Feb 04
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-fresh-data-in-on-wednesday-night-new-thoughts-on-this-weekends-accumulating-snow-threat/
Jan 21
January is flying by! With only 10 days left in the month, Indianapolis is running a whopping 8.2° above normal along with more than 3″ above normal in the precipitation department (unfortunately for snow lovers, this excess moisture has fallen primarily as rain, as IND is running a deficit of 5.2″ in the snowfall department).
On a broader scale, here’s a look at the current month-to-date temperature anomalies for the Lower 48 as a whole:
As a refresher, our January forecast looked like this:
The baseline of this thinking had to do with the idea we had that the MJO would roll out of the warm phases (5 and 6) and strongly into the colder phases after mid-month. Secondly, the other driver was the thought that the current SST configuration in the north Pacific would “force” a negative EPO as the winter season matured.
While the MJO did, indeed, rumble out of the warmer phases just after mid-month, the EPO has not cooperated. Furthermore, instead of the MJO tracking into Phases 8, 1, and 2, it appears it wants to go into the “null” phase to figure out its ultimate destination for the 2nd half of winter (this will be key with Feb. and March). While this doesn’t necessarily support warmth, it doesn’t offer enough ammo to fight the warm signal from the strongly positive EPO.
Now that we’re beginning to turn the page to the 2nd half of winter, there are other items to begin paying closer attention to. In addition to the EPO and MJO, some of these features include the AO, NAO, and PNA. With that said, to drive more of a consistent colder than normal theme, we need to get the EPO at least into the neutral range as some of the other ingredients noted above transition into more favorable colder phases. With a strongly positive EPO, it’ll be tough to sustain well below average temperatures.
With all of that said, all hope is not lost for winter lovers. Climatology speaking, we’re in the coldest time of the year. Even in “marginally” cold patterns, or even “warm” patterns this time of year, wintry issues can create headaches. Secondly, it’s worth paying close attention to the MJO over the next couple of weeks as some of the data wants to take things out of the null phase and transition towards the traditionally colder phases of 8, 1, 2, and 3.
As it is, the next couple of weeks should present a fairly active storm track across the region. In the face of what should truly be a “torch” pattern, the saving grace (at least for fans of winter weather) has to do with the strong Hudson Bay ridge and tendency this kind of pattern has to force stormy times underneath. While far from a “slam dunk,” these kind of patterns can produce- even in the face of a strong positive EPO.
If you had to choose, would you rather have a bitterly cold and dry regime or seasonably mild with at least being on the playing field for wintry mischief over the next couple of weeks?
More in the AM, friends. Make it a relaxing evening! 🙂
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/catching-up-on-a-tuesday-evening-and-looking-ahead/
Jan 14
1.) Patchy fog will burn off to another day with mostly cloudy conditions (should see a bit more sunshine than we saw on Monday) and mild temperatures. Mid 30s will warm into the lower 50s today and middle 50s Wednesday. The downside to Wednesday’s mild air? Light rain will scoot across the state. “Light” is the key word with amounts of a trace to under 0.10″.
2.) A cold front will push south across the region Wednesday evening and result in colder conditions (but with increased sunshine) Thursday. Highs in the lower to middle 30s can be expected across central Indiana Thursday.
3.) As we move into late week, a stronger storm system will impact the area. Low pressure will develop along the lee of the Rockies Friday morning before tracking into the lower Great Lakes Saturday morning and into New England Sunday. With marginally cold air in place Friday (courtesy of Wednesday evening’s cold front), “overrunning” precipitation should fall as a wintry mix of snow and sleet Friday afternoon. While still early, it’s possible a quick couple inches of snow and sleet make travel messy Friday PM (worth keeping a close eye on) before precipitation changes to a cold rain Friday night into the predawn Saturday. Eventually, as the cold front whips across the state, colder air will return Saturday morning and precipitation will end as snow showers.
4.) The previously mentioned storm system will usher more of a prolonged wintry pattern back into the eastern portion of the country. As we look ahead through the remainder of the month, below normal temperatures are expected to carry the day, along with the threat of additional wintry precipitation from time to time. This is the kind of pattern that will certainly promote storms and “rumors of storms” and it’ll be important to remain locked into the forecast as we put a close on January.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tuesday-morning-rambles-weak-midweek-system-followed-by-another-strong-late-week-storm/