Category: Weather Rambles

Tuesday Morning Rambles…

1.) The month of May has gotten off to a chilly start and given the period of unseasonably chilly air that looms later this week, it’s safe to say these cool anomalies will grow even cooler. 

The coolest day looks to be Saturday with highs only in the mid 50s.


2.) In the shorter term, we’re keeping an eye on strong-severe thunderstorm potential this afternoon and evening across southern and central parts of the state. Large hail and damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern, but a quick spin-up tornado can’t be ruled out.




Not everyone will see heavy rain amounts today, but a few neighborhoods may deal with localized flooding issues as slow moving heavy storms potentially train over communities. Where this happens, 2″+ rain totals are a good bet by midnight.


3.) Forecast models remain in a state of disagreement concerning late this weekend into early next week. The GFS is particularly bullish on the idea of wet (heavy rain threat), chilly times whereas the European is much drier (and warmer). We’ll keep an eye on things and hope for consistency this afternoon. Speaking of this afternoon, we’ll have our updated 7-day posted later today! Make it a great Tuesday. 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/05/10/tuesday-morning-rambles-3/

Saturday Morning Rambles…

April is running nearly 6° below average and nearly spot-on where we should be from a precipitation perspective through the 15th.       As we move forward, the big story…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/04/16/saturday-morning-rambles-8/

Wednesday Morning Video Update: Turning Stormy…

Showers and embedded thunder increase tonight and we eye Thursday for severe weather potential across the region…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/03/30/wednesday-morning-video-update-turning-stormy/

Sunday Weather Rambles…

1.) Indianapolis is running much warmer (+9.1°) and slightly drier than normal (-0.15″) month-to-date.      2.) Snow is flying to our southwest, and accumulating for some in and around St.…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/03/20/sunday-weather-rambles/

Saturday Morning Rambles…

1.) An absolutely stunning late February day is dialed up, with lots of sunshine and moderating temperatures.  We’re going mid 50s this afternoon.

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2.) Though warm (lower 60s), Sunday will offer up showers by the afternoon/ evening.

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3.) Mid and late week remains a challenge.  Do we have a leader-follower situation?  Time will tell.  We’re still leaning mostly wet for the Tuesday-Wednesday storm for now.  The late week system could offer up accumulating snow prospects (ala. ECMWF, GEM).

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4.)  The period opens warm, but we shift much colder than average by the end of the week.

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5.) We continue to look into spring and summer.  With the dramatic shift expected to a La Nina, fun times will ensue.  Hot, dry summer around these parts followed by a snowy winter?  Hmmmm….

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/27/saturday-morning-rambles-7/

Monday Evening Rambles…

1.)  Tuesday’s upper air disturbance looks to track further and further SW with each and every passing model run.  While we’ll keep an eye on things, it’s apparent that best snow chances will be across far SW counties, and even that may be generous (this thing is tracking much further west than what appeared a couple days ago), courtesy of NCEP.

42.)  A significant warm-up is still on schedule for late week, centered on Friday, where temperatures will likely push to, or exceed, 60 degrees as ridging builds in.  Image courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com.

13.)  The warmth will be brief, however, as a colder pattern returns (thank you positive PNA), including an interesting look for winter storm potential across the east days 8-10.  (No need to get fancy with specifics at this juncture).

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PositivePNA4.) The significant cold over the past 7 days has really eaten away at the warm start to the month, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_week_anom

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_2weeks_anom5.) Nearly 44% of the Lower 48 is snow covered at present. That compares to 25.6% of the Nation covered in snow for the same time last year.

nsm_depth_2016021505_National

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/15/monday-evening-rambles-2/

Taking A Moment To Level Set…

Two snow events are lined up to impact at least parts of central IN over the next few days. Friday Light Snow:  We still expect an area of light snow…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/11/taking-a-moment-to-level-set/

Tuesday Morning Rambles…

 5-10 day temperature anomalies. SOURCE: Tropicaltidbits.com   Week 2 Accumulated Precipitation Anomalies. SOURCE: Tropicaltidbits.com  Interested in our personalized consulting services? Email bill@indywx.com for more details.  We’re just beginning a very wintry…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/09/tuesday-morning-rambles-2/

Saturday Afternoon Rambles…

1.)  Be sure to get outside and enjoy today!  We’ll take sunshine this time of year any how we can get it! Big changes loom moving forward.  While Super Bowl…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/06/saturday-afternoon-rambles/

Series Of Upper Disturbances Bring Snow…

The relatively quiet and mild time of things this weekend will quickly give way to the promised return of winter next week.  An arctic cold front will sweep through the state late Sunday and set things in motion that will keep the weather feeling, and looking, very wintry around these parts over the upcoming week.

As we’ve discussed, models will struggle with handling the local impacts of multiple upper air disturbances that will race southeast in the fast northwest flow aloft.  We think Monday-Tuesday offer up the best chances of accumulating snow in the near term.  The upper energy will be able to maximize snow production around these parts and this looks like a 1″-3″ type event, with local amounts to 4″.  Winds will be quite gusty and blowing and drifting will be an issue, particularly in the open country.

Monday evening

Monday evening

Tuesday evening

Tuesday evening

Another vigorous disturbance will race southeast Thursday afternoon.  While the Canadian shows the bulk of the energy to our north, it would be close enough to ignite snow showers around here, as well.  Expect small changes with timing and track as we get closer.

ThursdayNight

Thursday evening

Longer term, we also keep close eyes on next weekend.  The pattern is one that should promote a significant widespread winter storm.  The devil is in the details and we still have a ways to go, but the pattern set-up is one that screams an Ohio Valley winter storm threat from this distance.

Giddy up! 🙂

European Ensemble Valentine's Day. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

European Ensemble Valentine’s Day. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

European Ensemble Monday, Feb. 15th. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

European Ensemble Monday, Feb. 15th. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/06/series-of-upper-disturbances-bring-snow/

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