High latitude blocking will continue to mature over the upcoming 6-10 day period. This will force a very stormy pattern underneath (across the Lower 48). After the light snow late tonight and Saturday morning (primarily grassy and elevated surfaces), we’re tracking 3 additional storms over this particular time period and each of these will deal out their own respective challenges that we’ll have to hone in on as the system(s) draws closer. Our daily posts and Client videos will handle those specifics.
Storm dates:
I. 01.08 – 01.09
II. 01.11 – 01.13
III. 01.14 – 01.15
A stormy pattern will eventually give way to bitterly cold, arctic air oozing east. The potential is present for cross polar flow to get going towards the 10-15 day period as well.
While we’re not looking at anything particularly noteworthy (in terms of relative to average) in the cold department over the next week, this begins to change by the 8-10 day period. Admittedly it’s been challenging trying to time when the arctic air sloshes east in this type pattern, but it’s becoming increasingly apparent that this should take place around mid-month. Note the cross polar flow developing towards the 10-15 day period, per this afternoon’s European ensemble update.
Just how cold are we talking? Subzero lows and highs around 10°F without a snowpack. Should we have a snowpack down by this time then the threat of a double-digit below zero low and highs in the single digits is on the table. The target date for this cold comes between the 14th and 18th. Wind chills will obviously be much colder.
The plot continues to thicken…
A bitterly cold airmass should engulf a large chunk of the country by mid-January.
We’re heading towards a “special” pattern over the next couple weeks, especially for winter weather enthusiasts. The potential in the said pattern is mighty, but can potential become reality? Thankfully, we have a quiet open to the month to track all of the possibilities that begin to take their position this upcoming weekend.
It’s easy to become enamored with the expansive trough and coast to coast cold that follows in the 10-15 day range (by the way, truly bitter air should arrive during this period), but what’s more interesting to me is the building Greenland Block. That kind of block usually promotes all sorts of wintry “fun and games” here and across a large chunk of the country. It’s also note worthy as it tends to lead to more sustainable wintry conditions. Perhaps the “extreme and nothing in between” cold solution/ lean for the latter part of January may have merit?
While far too early for specific details, the stormy shift appears to be a good call with the initial storm taking aim on the region this upcoming weekend, followed by a second system that also has the potential of producing wintry weather the early and middle part of the following week. Simply put, the threat of winter storm(s) is growing over the course of the upcoming 10 days.
We open the period with widespread milder than normal temperatures in the 1-6 day period. Greatest anomalies are centered over the upper Midwest. Note the step down to a pattern, locally, that’s more seasonable if not slightly cooler than normal to close the year and open 2024. That’s the emphasis we want to drive home- though turning colder, we’re not in the camp that our immediate region will have to deal with any sort of arctic air anytime soon.
Days 1-6
Days 6-11
Days 10-15
You know we’ll be keeping close eyes on the Madden Julian Oscillation over the next few days. Should the American guidance come to fruition, then a warmer pattern is certainly alive and kicking after the cooler pattern to open January. Interestingly this morning, early trends are more in favor of the European camp, but it’s still early and we’ll need to monitor closely through the Christmas holiday.
American guidance isn’t as bullish moving into Phase 3 early January with the overnight update.
In the shorter term, morning showers will transition to more of a widespread light rain across the northern half of the state later this afternoon and tonight. Some northern Indiana rain gauges could surpass 0.50″ during this time period from “round 1” of more widespread rain.
Pesky light showers will be around Saturday, but this will be more of a nuisance than anything else. Widespread measurable rain isn’t anticipated. We then flip the calendar to Christmas Eve and the forecast continues to improve. We even anticipate some sunshine to couple with the unseasonably mild air and breezy southerly winds. Highs approaching 60° can be expected as Santa loads up his sleigh.
More widespread rain arrives Christmas Day, especially by late morning and during the afternoon. This is the timeframe when we expect greatest coverage and heaviest rainfall rates of the period. Storm total rainfall of 0.50″ to 1″ still looks like a good bet.
Colder air works in behind the storm and left over “wrap around” precipitation will begin to mix with and change to snow Thursday.
The downhill slide to more seasonable and slightly colder than normal temperatures continues as we close out the year…
1.) Our clipper system is still on track to deliver a wintry mix of a cold rain and wet snow to central Indiana during the predawn hours Tuesday, continuing into the mid and late morning. We don’t have any changes from this morning’s video update. Thinking is that this is primarily a wet snow event from in and around Indianapolis and points north, including the potential of a coating to a dusting of snow in/ around the city with 0.50″ to 1″ type accumulation of wet snow across north-central Indiana (including northern Indy ‘burbs, such as Whitestown, Zionsville, Westfield, Carmel, and Fishers). Pavement issues aren’t anticipated due to the marginally cold temperatures in place and recent mild air, but slushy accumulation on grassy and elevated surfaces is likely in the areas mentioned above.
Most of the “system” precipitation should be out of here by lunchtime with a chance of a few scattered snow showers returning to north-central Indiana and into Indianapolis Wednesday morning with the weak cold air advection (CAA).
2.) After a seasonably chilly midweek, temperatures will “zoom” into the 50s and even approach 60 before we close the work week out. This is in response to an aggressive southwesterly air flow ahead of an approaching and strengthening surface low pressure system that already has the weather community “buzzin'” several days in advance. While the pattern is conducive for a rapidly deepening area of low pressure advancing from the Ark-la-tex region northeast across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, there are still many more questions than answers before we can provide anything concrete with respect to p-type, including potential snow numbers.
The hesitancy in leaning in stronger to this event from a winter perspective, locally, is the lack of cold air available to tap into. That’s not to say this storm will have to generate all of the cold on its own, but we’ll have to have a rapid strengthener to help aid in the cold production if anything meaningful is to transpire on the winter front. All of that said, it’s safe to say that a widespread, wind-whipped precipitation event is becoming increasingly likely this weekend. While the initial lean is still mostly “wet vs. white” for central Indiana, we’ll be watching trends very carefully.
3.) With each passing day, we receive more questions on the weather pattern around the holidays, and understandably so. The key to a sizable shift to more sustained cold and winter weather opportunities lies squarely on the MJO, in our opinion. I’ll include the image we posted here last week below showing the overall MJO evolution into the 2nd half of December. It’s certainly not unreasonable to think that the progression into the colder phases should happen when you extrapolate this out.
Long story short, we have no changes in our idea of a colder shift taking place with the overall pattern around (give or take a day or 2) 12/20.
The coldest air of the season is greeting us out the door this morning, complete with snow flurries and wind chill values around zero. Safe to say that the heavy winter gear is needed today as highs struggle to crack 30° later on.
We’re waking up to 10s this morning with wind chill values near 0°.Snow flurries and scattered light snow showers compliment the arctic intrusion this morning. No accumulation of significance is expected.
The upper pattern will transition to a milder (no blow torch by any means) and more active regime as we navigate the next 6-10 days. Most, if not all, storm systems will feature “wet vs. white” weather here over this particular time period.
Dry times return Wednesday only to give way to increasing clouds and widespread rain Thursday PM into Friday. The overall gloomy and damp pattern will prevail over the weekend and into early next week. Needless to say, enjoy whatever sunshine you can get later today and Wednesday.
Wetter than normal times return late week into early Week 2.
It continues to look like the potential is there for more appreciable cold to get back involved with the pattern after mid-month and especially closer to the holidays.
