It may only be August, but thoughts here are solely focused now on the upcoming fall and winter seasons. We received an update today from the sea surface temperature constructed analogue model and the look is a “mighty fine one” if you enjoy wintry conditions, locally.
As we’ve mentioned in previous video and text posts, the once-thought moderate to strong La Nina doesn’t appear to be taking shape and instead we’re likely left with a weak La Nina to neutral look. Factor in the positive PDO and the overall pattern is one that could yield cold, snowy times, locally, especially the middle and latter parts of the winter season. (No reason to get too specific this far out).
In any event, today’s update is an “intriguing” one for winter enthusiasts across the region.
Upper air pattern for DJF and JFM, indicating the colder, more wintry regime for mid and late winter:
Precipitation DJF
Temperature anomalies DJF and JFM
Hmmmmm… 