Jun 04
Good evening, friends. Here’s a video update as we get set to welcome a cooler, drier regime into central Indiana to wrap up the work week. Additionally, we’re also tracking another potential heavy rain maker for the second half of the weekend (not that we need more heavy rain)….
PS: The IndyWx.com mascots have attempted more times than not to interrupt my video updates, so I only thought it was time to give them a little face time. Meet Cameron (left) and Newton (right).
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wednesday-evening-video-update-drier-cooler-air-coming/
Jun 04
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64/ 77 |
57/ 75 |
53/ 75 |
52/ 80 |
63/ 78 |
60/ 74 |
52/ 78 |
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Moderate |
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Moderate |
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An area of showers and thunderstorms will push through central Indiana in a much weaker state when compared to what this complex was like to our northwest 12 hours ago. All the while, heavy rain, small hail, and gusty winds can be expected as the storms rumble through central Indiana. We’ll go through a break in the action during the late morning hours, but caution that a second area of showers and thunderstorms will develop during the early afternoon. These storms will likely reach severe levels as they encounter a warmer, more unstable air mass across southern portions of the state. If you have travel plans say to areas such as Louisville this afternoon, certainly keep an eye to the sky and have a means of receiving the most updated weather information. All modes of severe weather will be in play across southern Indiana this afternoon, including hail, tornadoes, and straight line wind.
We’ll undergo a regime change tonight and that will set the stage for a delightful close to the work week, including lots of sunshine, low humidity and cooler temperatures. Our next storm system is slated for a Sunday arrival.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/severe-storms-south-today-breath-of-fresh-air-coming/
Jun 03
It’s been a bit of a frustrating afternoon as I’ve been trying to upload a video discussing our thoughts around tomorrow for a couple of hours….only to no avail.
So this post will have to do. Really our thoughts remain unchanged concerning the way things unfold late tonight and Wednesday. The severe thunderstorms to our northwest continue to rumble as of the 10 o’clock hour.
The Storm Prediction Center holds firm to the Slight Risk for the Ohio Valley and northern Tennessee Valley Wednesday.
We wouldn’t be surprised to see a portion (most likely the southern half) of the Slight Risk area upgraded to a rare Moderate Risk area with the update from the SPC early Wednesday morning.
Our thinking hasn’t changed in that we believe the current complex of severe storms arrives into north central Indiana in a weakened state early Wednesday morning. The rush hour will likely include heavy rain and plenty of thunder, though we think the majority, if not all, of this activity Wednesday morning will remain below severe levels across our immediate region. Showers and thunderstorms will rumble into the area, especially north of the city during the predawn hours and include plenty of heavy rain.
A second round of showers and thunderstorms will fire during the afternoon Wednesday and is likely to turn severe across south central Indiana and points south Wednesday afternoon. Dangerous conditions are a good bet, including large and destructive hail, damaging straight line winds, and tornadoes. Certainly if you have plans from Indianapolis to Louisville or Cincy tomorrow afternoon and evening please keep tuned to the latest weather conditions and radar updates. Further north, the severe potential is much less certain. We continue to think areas north of the I-70 corridor will struggle to shake the stability provided from the early morning rain and storms. We caution though that this remains a now-cast scenario and will require a close eye tomorrow afternoon.
Looking farther ahead, we’ll enjoy a refreshing blast of air Thursday-Saturday with bright sunshine, low humidity, and cooler temperatures. Warmth and humidity will return Sunday with rainfall potential around 1″ additional precipitation. This will be followed by yet another big push of cooler, drier air early next week. More on this in the days to come.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tuesday-night-update-southern-indiana-under-gun-for-a-big-severe-weather-day-wednesday/
Jun 03
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Heavy |
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Light |
Light |
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After a heavy dose of rain across central Indiana Monday, today will be much quieter, AND increasingly sunny! A boundary will slip south through the afternoon hours and could ignite a shower or thunderstorm, but these will primarily be south and east of the city, itself. We’re going with a more optimistic approach to our forecast today for the greater Indianapolis region and points north. All eyes will then shift northwest to a blossoming complex of rain and severe thunderstorms this afternoon. We’ll watch this complex track south and east with time tonight and rumble into the region, especially from IND and points north, early Wednesday morning. Most of these storms will be below severe levels, but the storms are likely to be quite noisy and pack heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail. A second round of thunderstorms will develop Wednesday afternoon and likely turn severe for some. You can read our thoughts from last night here and this continues to sum up our thinking for now. Widespread additional rainfall Wednesday will fall in the 1″-2″ range.
Get set to open the windows and welcome in a breath of fresh air as we wrap up the work week. Gone will be the warm and sticky air that we’ve dealt with through the early week and in return we’ll enjoy temperatures several degrees cooler along with unseasonably comfortable humidity levels.
Our next rain and storm threat will blow into town Sunday!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/watching-wednesday-closely/
Jun 02
Many central Indiana neighborhoods picked up copious amounts of rainfall within a short time period this afternoon and evening. We received 2″ here at the IndyWx.com HQ within just under 90 minutes.
Forecast radar 5am Tue
The rest of the evening will feature a drier theme as the axis of slow moving, torrential, downpours presses east. That said, a couple of “rumblers” may be present during the early Tuesday morning period as a boundary slowly sinks south. We’re not talking about widespread heavy rain and storms, such as this evening, but a couple of thunderstorms may rumble across central Indiana early Tuesday morning before we dry things out and introduce sunshine for the majority of your Tuesday.
Our attention will then shift to another round of heavy rain and thunderstorms Wednesday. A severe weather outbreak will unfold to our northwest late Tuesday afternoon. While this severe weather episode is likely to begin with individual severe thunderstorms (including potentially tornadic super cells), the activity should eventually morph into a mesoscale convective complex (otherwise referred to as a MCC in the wonderful meteorological world) during the night Tuesday as the storms roll towards our neck of the woods.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) highlights the region for a Slight Risk of severe weather Wednesday.
We want to stress that this particular severe weather episode is far from etched in stone. Diving into our short to mid term forecast models would suggest the initial round of heavy rain and thunderstorms rumble into the state around 4-6am Wednesday- potentially in a weakened state when compared to what our friends and neighbors off to our north and west will experience Tuesday night. Now it’s important that we insert the timing disclaimer to the equation as similar events in the past have been known to accelerate forward motion and arrive “ahead of schedule.” (We’ll keep a close eye on the timing side of things and update Tuesday).
We’re confident we’ll be dealing with heavy rain around these parts Wednesday morning along with plenty of thunder and lightning. That said, there are many more questions than answers at the moment around whether or not severe levels will be reached, at least in our humble opinion. Should severe weather be an issue, it would most likely come from the following two impacts- damaging straight line winds and large hail. Again, we’re leaning more towards this initial round of showers and thunderstorms blowing into town in a weakening state.
Finally, there will be one more opportunity for strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, but this will be fueled by just how quickly the local air mass can warm and destabilize. There are, again, questions around heating potential across the local area (central Indiana) and our thinking currently places a greater concern for damaging severe weather across southern Indiana into Kentucky (folks traveling to Louisville Wednesday afternoon would need to prepare for damaging severe potential). Should we recover quicker than currently expected from Wednesday morning’s convection then we would need to hit the severe threat harder across central Indiana Wednesday afternoon. Stay tuned for updates!
Storms will likely strengthen yet again Wednesday afternoon, especially across southern Indiana.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wednesday-severe-threat-far-from-etched-in-stone/
