Category Archives: Severe Weather

Heavy Rain, Thunder, And Colder For The 1st Half Of March…

While “nuisance” type showers are possible through the daytime hours, most of Thursday will provide a break from significant rainfall.  Unfortunately, additional periods of moderate to heavy rain will return as we wrap up the work week and head into the weekend.  In particular, we’re targeting the following for additional heavy rainfall:

  • Overnight Thursday into Friday morning
  • Overnight Friday into Saturday morning
  • Saturday afternoon/ evening

Embedded thunderstorms may target southern Indiana late tonight and Friday morning before more widespread thunderstorms (a couple could become strong) Saturday.  The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has included the southern half of the state in a “marginal risk” of severe thunderstorms Saturday.

All total, additional rainfall between now and Sunday morning should reach 2″ to 3″ across a widespread portion of the southern half of Indiana with locally heavier amounts.

We’ll finally dry things out as we close the weekend and head into early next week as high pressure settles overhead.

Next week will begin a pattern transition from the unseasonably warm weather we’ve enjoyed as of late to a colder regime for the first half of March.  We note models continue to tank the NAO and AO.

Accordingly, the models are seeing the trough and associated colder than average pattern returning to the eastern half of the country as we rumble through the first half of March.  With such a strong block in place, this can turn into an active pattern for a couple weeks to go along with the cold.  Both the GEFS and EPS agree on the overall look.

While there’s no way to get specific on the individual storm threats that will eventually come with this pattern, the potential is present for a few storms to “bowl” underneath the block through the first 10-15 days of the month.  Each storm will have the capability of delivering wintry precipitation, but this can also be a tricky time of year where most, if not all, ingredients need to come together to create significant wintry events.  In a winter that’s been frustrating to central Indiana snow lovers (frigid, but dry first half and milder, wetter second half), perhaps it would be fitting to get a couple good snow dumps in March (when most are wanting and ready for spring)…

Colder times return for the first half of March.
No Comments Arctic Cold, Ensemble Discussion, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Long Range Discussion, Severe Weather, snow, Spring, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Transition Begins Back To A Prolonged, Sustained Wintry Pattern…

The January “thaw” has taken hold the past 7-10 days.

Despite the milder air over the past week, January, as a whole, is still running 4° below average at Indianapolis- a byproduct of just how frigid the first half of the month was.

While the January thaw has been nice, times are changing and winter sure seems to be reloading for a very active second half.

Initially, we think it’s the storminess that will be most impressive as a “fight” develops between resistance from southern ridging and a new mean trough pushing southeast.  The end result should be multiple snow and ice makers from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley and northeast over the upcoming couple of weeks.

Once we get a snowpack laid down, arctic highs oozing southeast will likely lead to bitterly cold air.  Recall our expectation for this pattern to yield at least (1) night of double-digit below zero lows, but it’s more towards mid-month that we think the severe cold takes hold.

Teleconnections are lining up and in overall agreement of cold, wintry times returning.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forecast to rotate into the colder phase 8 as we rumble from early to mid February.  Given the amplitude of the MJO, it should continue to rumble right through the cold phases of 1,2, and 3.

All of these moving pieces that lead up to extended periods of cold, wintry conditions are part of a bigger outcome low solar, easterly QBO winters deal up.  What we should experience with this setup is a 6-7 week period of wintry conditions, including times of severe cold.  It appears to be a snowier version of what we went through late-December through mid-January.  Hang in there, spring will come…eventually.

No Comments AG Report, AO, Arctic Cold, EPO, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Long Range Discussion, MJO, PNA, Severe Weather, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Winter thoughts...

Brief Thaw; Severe Winter Event Looms For A Portion Of The Region…

Highlights:

  • Fog and drizzle
  • Major winter storm looms
  • Frigid air returns

Brief Thaw; Major Winter Storm On Deck…The short-term will be dominated by low clouds and areas of fog, along with patchy drizzle.  Areas of freezing fog and drizzle are possible early Wednesday morning before conditions “warm” in earnest through the afternoon and evening.

A cold front will approach from the northwest Thursday with showers and gusty southerly winds.  This southerly air flow will deliver a briefly milder time of things during the day Thursday before the cold front settles south Thursday night.  As this transpires, surface low pressure will organize along the southern end of the boundary before tracking northeast into the Tennessee and Ohio Valley Friday into Saturday.

We continue to favor a track up west of the spine of the Appalachians and note some of the more progressive data is beginning to correct west to align closer with the other guidance that’s been spitting out big snow numbers over the past few days.  Before we discuss snow, an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain will fall across the region late Thursday night into early Friday.  We expect precipitation to transition to all snow Friday afternoon, continuing into Saturday.  At times, heavy snow is likely.

While we aren’t ready to lay out an accumulation map just yet, the heaviest snow axis will likely include 8″ to 12″+ amounts somewhere through central portions of the state.  We’ll aim to provide a first call snowfall map this time tomorrow.  Furthermore, there will also be a wind component to this storm.  What’ll initially be a wet, heavy snow will turn more “powdery” in nature as arctic air gets pulled into the storm.  That powder will get blown and drifted about Friday night and Saturday and travel will be significantly impacted.

Frigid conditions will return over the weekend before another accumulating snow pushes into town Monday.  Behind this snow maker, a brutal push of sub-zero air is likely next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 6″+
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ to 0.75″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Blowing/ Drifting, Forecast, Freezing Rain, Rain, Severe Weather, Sleet, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Windy, Winter Storm

Accumulating Snow Friday; Dangerous Cold Develops Next Week…

Highlights:

  • Accumulating snow on the way
  • Frigid times remain
  • Dangerously cold next week

Snow And Major League Cold On Deck…A weak impulse of energy will track across the region today and will be just enough to ignite a couple of snow showers and scattered flurries.  For most, this won’t be a big deal.  A more impactful opportunity for accumulating snow will arrive Friday as a clipper system moves southeast.  Snow will develop late tonight across the Plains states before expanding in overall coverage and intensity as it pushes southeast into the Ohio Valley Friday.  With such cold air in place, snowfall ratios will be higher than the standard 10:1 and snow will quickly accumulate on roadways, making for slick travel Friday afternoon into the evening.  Here’s our current snowfall forecast for Friday:

Snow showers will taper off Saturday morning and give way to a blustery, bitter day.  Temperatures will fall through the day and wind chill values will turn dangerous Saturday afternoon and evening (10° to 20° below zero).  This arctic intrusion will set us up for a frigid close to 2017 and open to 2018.  In fact, we expect severely cold conditions early next week (double-digit below zero readings, including wind chill values approaching 30° below zero at times).  Plan and prepare now.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 2″ to 4″
  • Rainfall:  0.00″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Forecast, Severe Weather, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Windy