Highlights:
- Front arrives late Monday
- Strong storms; heavy rain threat Wednesday
- Unsettled pattern
Busy Week Ahead…The overall pattern features the mean ridge position across the Four Corners region and sets up an active NW flow for our part of the country. It’s a pattern we need to get used to as it’ll remain intact to close the month and open July. Challenges are present in regards to specifics with timing and track of thunderstorm complexes we’ll deal with this week, particularly Wednesday.
In the shorter term, a frontal boundary will slip into central IN Monday night and a broken band of thunderstorms will accompany it. A few storms could reach strong to severe levels Monday evening.
Attention will then shift to Wednesday. Ingredients are coming together to present both a severe component (damaging wind the biggest threat) and localized flash flood threat. We’ll update our latest thinking Monday morning.
As we progress into late week, additional shower and thunderstorm complexes are possible, but we stress timing issues abound. It’ll be a warm and humid end to the week.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.50″-2.00″ (locally heavier totals)
Dry and sunny weather will greet us to open the new work week, along with temperatures that will approach the 80 degree mark by Tuesday. Have yard work to get caught up on? Take advantage of the early week weather.
As such, we’ll increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms in our mid week forecast. It’ll also be a much more humid feel of things (really for the first time this year) as surface dew points surge into the upper 60s to lower 70s. (In other words, “oppressive”).
Factor in PWATs (precipitable water values) zooming to 1.5″-1.8″ and the threat is there for localized heavy downpours around mid week.
Additionally, we also note the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed western sections of our forecast area in a risk of severe weather Wednesday. We’ll keep a close eye on things.
As we progress into the late week period and on into the long holiday/ race weekend, a warm, humid, and unsettled time of things is expected to continue. It’s tough to pinpoint specifics from this distance, but just keep note of the threat of thunderstorms into and through the upcoming busy weekend, along with warm (highs in the lower to middle 80s; lows in the upper 60s) and humid conditions.
