Category Archives: Severe Weather

Another Busy Week…

I. On the heels of a record-setting Easter snow event, attention will turn to showers (by this evening) and even the potential of gusty thunderstorms (Tuesday).

Forecast radar 10p.
Forecast radar 5a Tuesday.

Best chance of the possibility of a strong to severe thunderstorm will lie within the southern half of the state, primarily south of the I-70 corridor.  Greatest threats are large hail and damaging straight line winds.

All of us stand the chance of a thunderstorm as the cold front sweeps through the state Tuesday night.

Forecast radar 8p Tuesday.

II.  Much colder air will rush back into Indiana Tuesday night and the air will grow cold enough to allow lingering precipitation to transition to snow showers Wednesday morning.  Don’t expect any accumulation this go around.

III.  Our next focus is on the prospects of late week/ weekend snow.  Models will continue to struggle with the finite details over the next few days.  I’m not so sure the suppressed look displayed currently is the correct one.  Let’s remember, this time last week models were taking our Easter storm well to our south.  We’ll keep a close eye on things over the next few days.

IV.  Regardless of whether we get additional snow down or not, a first-class late season arctic blast will drill south this weekend.  This will be cold enough to keep temperatures in the 30s for highs Friday and Saturday.  Brutal stuff for early-April when average highs are around 60…

No Comments Arctic Cold, Easter, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Hail, Rain, Severe Weather, snow, Spring, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Brilliant Close To The Weekend; Wet Snow Thump For Some Early Week…

Though we were greeted with a cold and frosty start to our Sunday, high pressure will supply plentiful sunshine as we wrap up the St. Patrick’s Day weekend.  Find a patio this afternoon that’s showing the Madness and soak up that Vitamin D.  The increasingly powerful March sun angle will help boost temperatures into the middle to upper 50s for most of central Indiana.

Things will begin to change as we open up a new work week. Surface low pressure will track out of the central Plains into the lower Ohio Valley Monday into Tuesday.  This will spread moisture into the southern half of the state Monday evening.  With air just cold enough, precipitation will mix with and perhaps change to a wintry mix of sleet and wet snow along the northern periphery of the precipitation overnight into Tuesday morning.

March snow events can offer “surprises” and we’ll need to keep a close eye on the precise details pertaining to the track of the upper low Monday night into Tuesday.  Under and just north of these little bundles of energy can often times be the spot for a wet snow “thump” this time of year.  For now, it appears areas from southern IN into Ohio may be the sweet spot for a late season accumulating snow event.

The mid week stretch should be showcased by dry, but unseasonably chilly conditions.  Lows in the 20s and highs in the 40s aren’t what many Hoosiers on Spring Break want to deal with…

Our next item of significance arrives Friday as a warm front lifts northeast through the Ohio Valley.  This will result in a wet close to the work week.

Looking ahead, the weather pattern sure looks active to wrap up March and open April, including above average precipitation and potentially an “uptick” in severe weather episodes…

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, Severe Weather, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Wintry Mix

Only The Messenger…

While we continue to believe more of a wholesale pattern change awaits early-mid April, we still have a long way to go before we can shake the overall wintry pattern.  When the pattern does flip, the potential is certainly there (as alluded to last weekend) for a rather “turbulent” time, including an uptick on the severe front.

Before we get to April, we still have a prolonged period of overall colder than normal conditions to deal with.  We don’t have any changes to the idea the northern Plains are ground-zero for coldest anomalies, but, it’ll also be plenty chilly, locally, as well.

A couple of storm systems continue to have our attention over the upcoming week:

Potential of freezing rain, especially across the northern half and northeastern parts of the state Friday night into the morning hours Saturday.

Secondly, rain arriving on the scene Monday that will transition to wet snow Tuesday into Wednesday morning, as illustrated by the European model below.

From this distance, neither storms seem to be a “big deal” for central Indiana.  However, we know March storms can “surprise.”  Just ask our friends across KY earlier this week.  🙂  Spring warmth attacking south of systems combined with unusually cold air, associated with the blocking, just to our north can lead to all sorts of fun and models may have to play catch up last minute in some areas.  At the very least, we recommend keeping an eye on the forecast over the next week, or so.

On a more positive note, it still looks like we’ll enjoy plentiful sunshine tomorrow and after a raw, damp start to our St. Patrick’s Day, drier times should win out Saturday afternoon into Sunday.

Much more later!

No Comments Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Freezing Rain, Long Range Discussion, Rain, Severe Weather, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Heavy Rain This Morning; Nighttime Storms…

Our Saturday morning will be dominated by soaking rains as moisture continues to stream across the Midwest and Ohio Valley, including central Indiana.  Add in temperatures in the lower to middle 40s and you have our official approval to sleep in this morning.  🙂

Steady rain will give way to briefly drier conditions early to mid afternoon.  While scattered showers will still be present, widespread moderate to heavy rain will diminish.  Here’s a look at the forecast radar at 3p:

Widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms will return by evening, and forecast radar products at 8p and 2a Sunday show the stormy times well:

A couple of storms may become strong to severe (especially downstate).  Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center has expanded the threat of severe weather to encompass more of the state.

We’re most concerned for the potential of stronger storms to produce damaging winds, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out tonight.  Additionally, we’ll also have to be on guard for potential of flash flooding as storms will be capable of torrential rainfall.  Heavy rain falling on already saturated soils may lead to problems in spots tonight into early Sunday.

After early morning storms head east Sunday, high pressure will build in with drier conditions and increasing sunshine Sunday. It’ll be a very nice close to the weekend, and calm, pleasant conditions will continue as we progress through the early portions of the new work week.

No Comments Flooding, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms

Wet Weekend Gives Way To A Drier Open To The New Week…

Today will feature a continuation of gloomy conditions, including areas of fog and drizzle- especially this morning.

Thankfully, most of central Indiana will get a break from significant rainfall through the majority of our Friday, but a new batch of steady to occasionally heavy rain will build in overnight into the day Saturday.

Forecast radar 2a Saturday.
Forecast radar 10a Saturday.

We’ll add thunderstorms into the forecast Saturday night into the predawn hours Sunday as a deepening surface low tracks into the Great Lakes and sweeps a cold front through the state Sunday morning.  A couple of these storms could become strong across central Indiana and even severe downstate.  As such, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has included the southern half of Indiana in a “marginal” risk of severe during this time period.  We’ll keep a close eye on models over the next 24 hours as it’s possible this marginal and slight risk may need to be expanded further north.

Forecast radar 7p Saturday.
Forecast radar 1a Sunday.

Thankfully, drier air will quickly sweep into the state Sunday afternoon and this should allow sunshine to return as we close the weekend.  Beforehand, additional rainfall of 1″ to 2″ will be widespread across central Indiana with locally heavier totals.

High pressure will settle overhead to open the new work week, allowing for a quieter time of things before a new active period develops by the middle of the week…

No Comments Drizzle, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms