Category: Severe Weather

Jul 04

Sun-Filled And Unseasonably Cool…

Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Heavy Rain, Independence Day, Rain, Severe Weather, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather
July 4, 2014

Fri.	Sat.	Sun.	Mon.	Tue.	Wed.	Thr.

51/ 76	55/ 80	59/ 83	68/ 87	68/ 82	58/ 78	57/ 82
– – –	– – –	– – –	Light	Moderate	Light	– – –

Happy Independence Day! Canadian high pressure remains firmly in control of our weather today and for the majority of the weekend for that matter. As a result, look for plentiful amounts of sunshine and temperatures that will continue the cooler than normal regime we enjoyed Thursday. Today’s conditions, once again, will have that feeling of early fall. ENJOY! A more active weather pattern will return early next week as we potentially have to deal with a couple thunderstorm complexes in the Monday-Tuesday time period. Heavy rain and the chance of severe weather will return to your forecast Monday night into Tuesday and we’ll have more details around this as we move closer. A cooler and drier regime will build in by the middle portion of next week.

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Jun 30

More On Tonight’s Severe Threat…

Filed under Forecast Discussion, Severe Weather, T-storms
June 30, 2014

As we type this, a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been hoisted to include much of northwestern Indiana. The concern is that the complex of storms, already responsible for damaging weather across Iowa, gains steam as it plows east and intensifies this evening.

There’s no doubt in overall thinking that northern Indiana is at greatest risk for damaging severe weather later this evening and overnight, but we do have some concern that areas further south aren’t out of the woods. Is there risk at being wrong in the further south idea? Absolutely. However, a look over the latest model data continues to suggest there’s plenty of moisture and fuel readily available. Additionally, similar thunderstorm complexes have been known to “hook” south as they intensify racing east and short-term modeling has been known to have to play catch up at the very end in some particular cases. That’s not something we want to play around with tonight, given what the potential is. Will potential become reality here across central Indiana? Big question at the moment, but one can’t be too careful with this particular situation as a rather widespread damaging wind event should expand in the coming hours. Nowcasting will be key. Should central Indiana get in on the stormy action it would be late this evening and overnight- midnight-ish, and after, for most.

Our best educated projection at this juncture would place north-central Indiana (a line from Crawfordsville to Muncie) and points north under the greatest risk for potential severe weather late tonight. Damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern with this complex tonight. Know that we’ll keep a close eye on things moving forward and suggest setting the weather radio on alert mode before heading off to bed this evening. As always, have a means to get watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/more-on-tonights-severe-threat/

Jun 30

Severe Threat Tonight For Portions Of The Region…

Filed under Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Hail, Heavy Rain, HRRR, NAM Model, Severe Weather, T-storms
June 30, 2014

We spoke Sunday of a couple complexes of thunderstorms potentially impacting the region today. The first complex of thunderstorms is moving into northwestern portions of the state as we write this and short-term modeling is already struggling on the track of this complex. Note the forecast radar, via the HRRR and 4km NAM, valid 8am versus the actual radar snapped at 7:30am.

The first complex of thunderstorms will likely blow through north-central Indiana counties later this morning.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of the region under a slight risk of severe today, including a heightened moderate risk across Iowa, MO, and IL. All modes of severe weather are in play, including potential tornadoes, large hail, and damaging straight line winds.

The latest 4km NAM shows complex number 2 erupting over Iowa later this afternoon.

This is the complex of storms that could pose a rather active time of things across Indiana tonight.

Moisture and energy will be plentiful, meaning storms will likely remain strong to severe as they push into central Indiana. Additionally, locally heavy downpours are a good bet.

Forecast CAPE is to be around 3500-4500 J/kg tonight when complex number 2 is eyeing the region. In short, this means “energy” will be plentiful for storms to remain strong to severe as they blow into the region. Think of CAPE as fuel for storms.

Forecast PWAT, or precipitable water, shows a ribbon of 2″ streaking through the central portions of the state and suggests torrential downpours with any storm.

Bottom line, it’ll be important to have a means of getting your latest weather information and radar trends later this evening. The greatest severe threat to our immediate region appears to be with a straight line wind component, but as stated above, we’ll have to be on guard for all modes of severe weather.

Now casting will be key later tonight as we eye another round of potential severe weather impacting the state. While the first complex of storms will impact northern counties this morning, it’s complex number 2 late tonight that could pack a punch across a more widespread portion of the region. More later this afternoon!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/severe-threat-tonight-for-portions-of-the-region/

Jun 28

Humid Weekend; Severe Potential Monday.

Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Hail, Heavy Rain, Independence Day, Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather
June 28, 2014

Sat.	Sun.	Mon.	Tue.	Wed.	Thr.	Independence Day

69/ 83	70/ 83	71/ 88	70/ 84	60/ 75	56/ 76	53/ 80
Light	Light	Light	Light	– – –	– – –	– – –

A warm front is lifting north through the region this morning and rain will continue to expand in coverage this morning as the front lifts north. Sunshine will then quickly build back into central Indiana this afternoon, along with plenty of humidity. We’ll get back into the scattered afternoon/ evening “splash and dash” thunderstorm regime later today and again Sunday. Looking further ahead, concern is growing about a potential severe weather event here Monday and we’ll have an additional post later this weekend discussing this potential in more detail. For now, plan to pay special close attention to Monday’s forecast with damaging severe weather potential in play (all modes of severe weather at hand). We still forecast a MUCH cooler, drier regime building in mid week and remaining in place through the upcoming holiday weekend.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/humid-weekend-severe-potential-monday/

Jun 24

Hot Weekend Coming, But We’re Set To Cool Going Into The Holiday…

Filed under CFSv2, European Model, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Independence Day, Long Range Discussion, Rain, Severe Weather, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm
June 24, 2014

The pattern continues to look as if it’ll evolve in a way that will assist in delivering the hottest air so far this year during the course of the upcoming weekend into early next week. That said, the seeds are once again being planted that should promote a trough and associated cooler than normal pattern returning as we head closer to the Independence Day holiday.

In short, an active and progressive pattern is set to continue across our immediate neck of the woods. This promises a continuation of above average precipitation and while shots of hot air will invade from time to time, it’s going to be mighty tough to get any sort of hot pattern to stick around for any sort of staying power over the course of the upcoming couple weeks.

In the short-term, we’ll enjoy a couple of cooler, drier days for the mid week stretch, but ridging will build this weekend into the middle part of next week and we should have no problem reaching the hottest levels of the year so far. Note, however, how the upper pattern reverses and allows a trough to develop over the Lakes and Ohio Valley by Day 10, or the Independence Day holiday.

There’s relatively good agreement between the GFS and European during the 8-10 day period with the trough and associated cooler pattern returning.

The NAEFS and CFSv2 highlight the warmer than normal pattern giving way to cooling week 2.

The GFS ensembles show the transient regime ahead. Note the warming giving way to cooling and then warming again towards week 3. Again, this is a good indication of wetter than normal conditions as well across a good portion of the Mid West and Ohio Valley.

To sum things up, the hottest air so far this year will likely move into the Hoosier state early next week and feature a day or two of 90 degrees +. The heat won’t have staying power as a trough and associated cooler air mass will return heading into the Independence Day holiday, and could potentially be highlighted by a round of gusty storms as the heat gives way to cooling. We’ll have to keep an eye on this as we draw closer.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/hot-weekend-coming-but-were-set-to-cool-going-into-the-holiday/

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