Category Archives: Severe Weather

Early Week Storm Delivers Strong Storms; Taste Of Early Autumn…

After we get rid of the morning fog, a mostly dry weekend is in store for central Indiana.  The potential is present for a widely scattered shower for southern and eastern areas (mainly south of the city), but most of the immediate region will remain rain-free through the weekend.

Attention is now focused on a storm system that will deliver a return of unsettled weather to open the work week, followed by a “taste” of fall for midweek:

A surface low will move out of Iowa Monday evening into the Great Lakes region Tuesday.  A trailing cold front will sweep through the state Tuesday evening.

Scattered thunderstorms will return as early as Monday afternoon, but more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is expected Tuesday.  While not a textbook set-up for widespread severe weather by any means, enough ingredients are in place to at least raise an eyebrow for a few severe storms ahead of the cold frontal passage.  Don’t be surprised if the ‘marginal’ risk is upgraded to a ‘slight’ risk for Tuesday in future updates from the Storm Prediction Center.

Once the cold front moves through, a rather abrupt wind shift will drive a much drier and cooler air mass southeast and it’ll feel like early autumn around these parts as we progress through the second half of the work week.  Not only will the significant drop in humidity be nice, but some outlying areas away from the city will likely fall into the 40s for overnight lows Thursday and Friday mornings.  Highs will only top out in the mid to upper 70s.

Looking longer term, summer isn’t finished just yet.  Ridging will return for the Labor Day weekend and support building warmth as we put a wrap on August and open September.

No Comments Autumn, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Labor Day Weekend, Rain, Severe Weather, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Unsettled 24-36 Hours And Looking Beyond…

A cold front is slowly sinking south and will feature a weak wave of low pressure that will track along the boundary Tuesday.  The end result spells for increased chances of showers and thunderstorms across central Indiana over the upcoming 24-36 hours.

Initially, we expect an area of thunderstorms to push south and potentially impact north-central portions of the state later tonight.  The latest high resolution NAM forecast radar gives us an idea what the radar may look like late tonight- just after midnight.

Some of the storms across the northern third of the state may “pulse” to severe levels this evening, including the potential of large hail and damaging winds.  (This complex will weaken as it surges south later tonight).

As we turn our attention to Tuesday, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.  A few strong storms are possible, including locally heavy rain.

Eventually, drier times will return by mid-week.  Beforehand, most central Indiana rain gauges should receive somewhere between 0.50″ to 1″ of rain.  With a rich, tropical airmass in place, there will be some locally heavier totals.

Image courtesy of weathermodels.com
Image courtesy of weathermodels.com

As the cold front moves south during the midweek stretch, drier times will return Wednesday and Thursday.  With that said, the drier regime won’t last long, as a cut off upper low “mucks” things up over the weekend.  While it certainly won’t rain the entire time, daily rain chances will return late Friday, continuing throughout the weekend.  There’s no need to cancel any outdoor plans, but have the rain gear handy, as you’ll likely need it at times throughout the weekend.

A “cut off” upper low will impact the region this weekend. Image courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com.

Speaking of rain and overall unsettled times, the pattern sure looks active around these parts into the mid and longer range.  More on that in future updates…

Longer range data suggests wetter than normal times throughout the Ohio Valley mid and late August. Image courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com.
No Comments Cut Off Low, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Rain, Severe Weather, Summer, T-storms

Saturday Morning Rambles: Unsettled Weekend And Looking Ahead…

It was a tale of two worlds across the state on Friday.  Despite a couple of non-severe, gusty showers that impacted western portions of the state Friday evening, the majority of the “excitement” took place in the eastern half of the state.  Multiple large hail, wind, and tornado reports were included along with heavy rain.  When we look at storm total rainfall through 8a today, we note widespread 2″ to 3″ amounts across eastern Indiana.  Muncie recorded amounts in excess of 3″!

As we look ahead, our weekend weather will continue to be dominated by a “cut off” area of low pressure.  As it meanders around the region, shower and thunderstorm chances will remain.  Aerial coverage of rain will reach greatest heights during the afternoon and evening hours today and Sunday.  With the colder air aloft, don’t be surprised if a few of the stronger showers produce hail.

Additionally, highs today will run close to 10° below the average high of the mid-80s.

As we open up the new week, showers and embedded thunder will also be around Sunday before the upper low begins to lose it’s influence on the region.  We’ll maintain shower chances into the new work week, but overall coverage should be diminished Monday.

Shower and embedded thunder chances remain Sunday. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

A couple of cold fronts will make a run at the Ohio Valley over the upcoming week.  The first will pass through during the midweek stretch, followed by a stronger frontal passage as we get ready to head into the weekend.  Each front will provide a shower/ thunderstorm threat.  A stronger push of pleasantly refreshing air should arrive behind front number 2 as we head into next weekend.

On the temperature note, models continue to show a cooler than average pattern as we open August.

Longer term, the NEW JMA Weeklies suggest the worst of the summer heat is now behind us as they keeps the Weeks 3-4 time period unseasonably refreshing…

No Comments Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, JMA, Long Range Discussion, Rain, Severe Weather, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weather Rambles