An updated 7-day forecast will hit later today. This morning we wanted to take the time to dig in a little deeper on Friday’s severe weather threat.
Severe Weather Outlook:
This morning the latest update from the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has expanded the ‘Enhanced Risk’ of severe weather Friday. This includes all of central Indiana.
Summary:
A sub 1000 mb surface low pressure system will track northeast from northern MO (Friday morning) to central MI (Saturday morning). Ahead of this, a warm front will lift north through central IN and into lower MI Friday afternoon. A strong cold front will be located near the MS River Friday morning and barrel eastward, sweeping the state Friday night.
Unseasonably warm and moist air will be drawn northward and encompass the entire region Friday. Forecast highs should break records tomorrow and be in the lower-middle 70s for most of the region (thinking we see plentiful sunshine during the daytime hours). Dew points will near 60°. Considering this is late February, those are impressive ingredients coming into play. The added sunshine tomorrow is actually a bad thing as it will add “fuel to the fire,” so to speak, and help play a role in potentially explosive thunderstorm development Friday evening.
Forecast dew points will reach around 60 degrees across the region Friday afternoon.
Surface-based CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) is modeled to reach between 1200-1600 J/kg Friday evening across the region.
Threats and Timing:
Most of Friday is going to be quiet, but it’s as we move into Friday afternoon and evening that we’ll need to keep close eyes to the sky and radar. The potential exists for individual super cells to develop out ahead of an eastward-advancing line of thunderstorms Friday evening. All modes of severe weather are possible Friday evening, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. As of now, we bracket the hours of 4p and 10p for the period where severe weather may be impacting portions of central IN.
As mentioned yesterday, we highly recommend reviewing your family’s severe weather safety plan and ensure weather radios are charged with warning modes “on” Friday.
Highlights:
Highlights:
Highlights:
Despite the lack of sunshine this morning, temperatures continue to run much milder than average. We’re currently running nearly 20° above where we should be at the 9a hour.
A quiet start to the work week is ahead as high pressure dominates early on. That said, a weak storm system will scoot through the state Monday night and Tuesday morning and this will help offer up the chance of showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder.
The next (more significant) storm system will pose a severe weather risk to close the week. We continue to keep a close eye on Friday and the Storm Prediction Center is as well, with western IL, IN, and western KY in their Day 6 Outlook. It’s still early, but the primary focus with the severe potential this storm may pose will be large hail and damaging straight line winds. Stay tuned as we continue to analyze the latest data.
We’ll turn sharply colder Friday night and Saturday. Though it’ll feel much colder, we’ll really only “chill” to seasonal levels, including a gusty northwesterly breeze Saturday.
Longer-term, we’re rumbling into a much more active weather pattern through the mid range period. As the mean trough sets-up position in the west, the ridge will flex it’s muscle across the east yet again during early portions of Week 2. This will set the stage for a repeat of what we deal with Friday and, accordingly, we’ll have to monitor early next week for portions of severe weather yet again.