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Category: Heavy Rain
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/06/wednesday-morning-video-update-heavy-rain-severe-threat-give-way-to-much-colder-air-and-a-potential-late-weekend-winter-event/
Feb 05
Whole Lot Of Weather Going On…
There’s sure no shortage of active weather, and unfortunately (or fortunately- depending on your perspective), there’s no letup in sight. As we look ahead, we see a fascinating battle of heavyweights set to duke it out for control of our mid and late February pattern. Before we get into some of the longer range model updates, let’s focus on the short and medium term challenges.
Heavy Rain
We continue to target (3) distinct windows where rainfall will be heaviest:
I. Late tonight-Wednesday morning
II. Wednesday night-Thursday morning
III. Thursday evening
In general, widespread 2″ to 2.5″ totals are expected in area rain gauges with heavier amounts across south-central Indiana (where flood risks are highest).
The other item to note? The potential of strong and gusty thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into the early evening. These would be located directly ahead of the cold front. While we’re not anticipating a widespread major event, temperatures and dew points will approach 60 deg. and the atmosphere will be favorable to support a few strong gusts that may mix down to the surface.
Sharply Colder
The cold front that will deliver the heavy rainfall for our midweek will sweep through central Indiana around 4p-5p. Behind the boundary, sharply colder air will blow in on strong and gusty northwest winds Thursday night. Daytime highs (actual highs will occur at midnight Friday) will only top out in the lower 20s with wind chill values in the 0s most of the day.
Winter Threat Late Weekend-Early Next Week?
The fresh batch of cold air in here to wrap up the work week will lay the ground work for potential wintry mischief late weekend into early next week. While the cold still isn’t set to truly establish itself (still think we’re a week-10 days away from that), just enough cold may be around to present the opportunity for an accumulating central and northern Ohio Valley winter threat in the Sunday-Tuesday period. Stay tuned as we fine tune things.
The hesitation that we still have from beginning to “ring the bells” a little louder in the aforementioned period is the position of the high in front of the storm and forecast strongly positive AO. Both of these argue against the idea of this being a widespread wintry event for the southern, and potentially as far north as central Ohio Valley. The early idea here as of now is that we’ll be looking at a wintry mix event to rain for central and southern areas with more of an opportunity for substantial snow across the northern portions of the Ohio Valley. Again, stay tuned as we continue to fine tune things.
Longer term, today’s MJO update continues to take things into Phase 8 and you don’t need us to cover the end result again (think cold) at this point. Should we get the other teleconnections to line-up (AO, PNA, NAO) then a 2-3 week period of significant winter weather would ensue during the 2/20-3/10 timeframe…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/05/whole-lot-of-weather-going-on/
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/05/tuesday-morning-video-heavy-rain-and-looking-ahead-to-a-wintry-threat-late-weekend-for-some/
Feb 04
Monday Morning Video: Heavy Rain And Freezing Rain Potential Grabs The Headlines…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/04/monday-morning-video-heavy-rain-and-freezing-rain-potential-grabs-the-headlines/
Feb 03
Pre Super Bowl Rambles: Stormy Pattern Shifts To A Return Of Significant Cold?
In the short-term, there’s no getting around the very active pattern in place. As we’ve been discussing, we’ll find ourselves “smack dab” in the middle of a battle ground between a stubborn southeast ridge and building cold to our northwest. The fight in between will yield well above normal precipitation over the next couple of weeks.
Over the upcoming (10) days, expect a roller coaster ride in the temperature department as the battle takes place. While the most anomalous warmth is taking place now (IND is on pace to set a new record high temperature before the end of the day), relative warmth will continue to dominate into midweek before colder air presses and wins out.
After Monday’s light rain, we’re targeting (3) opportunities for significant precipitation across the region:
I. Tuesday night-Wednesday (still may include a risk of freezing rain across north-central communities).
II. Wednesday night-Thursday morning
III. Thursday night-Friday morning (ending as light snow)
When all is said and done, model data is in agreement on significant rainfall totals across central Indiana (2″ to 3″ amounts will be common by Friday).
Thereafter, confidence is high on colder air returning as we close the week and head into next weekend.
Guidance suggests that we still need to remain abreast of the potential of a more widespread wintry event late next weekend and this is something we’ll continue to keep close tabs on as we progress through the upcoming week. As of now, this doesn’t appear to be a major event, but stay tuned.
As we look ahead, we’ll have to continue keeping a close eye on the MJO. Today’s update shows the majority of data swinging things into Phase 8 by mid to late month. Should that come to fruition, prospects of another significant cold spell loom large…
Fun times ahead- no matter how you look at it! 🙂
Enjoy the game!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/03/pre-super-bowl-rambles-stormy-pattern-shifts-to-a-return-of-significant-cold/
Feb 03
Sunday Morning Video Update: Walking Through The Active Week Ahead; Looking Towards Mid-Feb…
A new week has dawned and with it will come a very busy weather pattern. Thankfully, today we’ll enjoy a “hint of spring,” including temperatures approaching the 60 deg. mark…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/03/sunday-morning-video-update-walking-through-the-active-week-ahead-looking-towards-mid-feb/
Jan 23
Multiple Snow Makers; Pattern Threatens Severe Cold Next Week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/23/multiple-snow-makers-pattern-threatens-severe-cold-next-week/
Dec 31
Wet Close To 2018…
IND has already recorded over half an inch in the rain gauge this morning and there’s more where that came from between now and tonight. Steady rain will be replaced with scattered downpours late morning to around the lunchtime hour before widespread rain and embedded thunder returns early to mid afternoon. Most can expect to tack on an additional half inch to inch of rain today and the latest HRRR sees this as well.
We’re also still monitoring the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms across southern portions of the state. The Storm Prediction Center now includes far southern Indiana in a Slight Risk for severe weather today. The primary concerns remain strong, damaging winds with a line of thunderstorms that may develop between 2p and 4p. If your travels take you south towards Louisville today remain weather-aware.
Temperatures will run 25° to 30° colder New Year’s Day and a couple of scattered snow showers may fly- especially across the favored snowbelt areas to our north.
Have a happy and safe New Year’s Eve, friends!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/12/31/wet-close-to-2018/
Dec 30
Heavy Rain (And Thunder Downstate) Arrives For New Year’s Eve…
We’re enjoying pleasant conditions this afternoon with filtered sunshine and temperatures that should top out in the upper 30s to lower 40s later on. Enjoy it, as a big rain event gets underway for New Year’s Eve.
This afternoon’s visible satellite shows sunshine dominating across the northern half of #INwx.
Clouds will increase tonight and rain won’t be too far behind. We think wet weather builds into central Indiana before sunrise Monday (likely between 4a to 6a) and periods of heavy rain are still expected late morning into the afternoon and evening hours.
Rain will arrive into the city itself between 4a and 5a Monday.
We continue to monitor the prospects of a skinny line of strong thunderstorms that may impact southern Indiana Monday afternoon and evening. If your travels take you south to Louisville for NYE plans, this is something to monitor. Widespread severe weather isn’t expected, but strong winds are possible if this line materializes.
Timing out prospects for a skinny line of storms to impact southern #INwx Monday afternoon. Best idea as of now will come between 2p and 4p.
This storm system will have a true tropical connection. Precipitable water values will be quite “juicy” for late December and plenty capable of producing locally heavy totals. Widespread 1″ to 1.5″ can be expected, but a few area rain gauges will likely see higher amounts.
Colder air will whip in here late tomorrow night and help lingering moisture fall as scattered snow showers New Year’s Day. More later on the potential of wintry “mischief” later in the week…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/12/30/heavy-rain-and-thunder-downstate-arrives-for-new-years-eve/
Dec 29
Wet Close To 2018 On Deck…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/12/29/wet-close-to-2018-on-deck/