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Category: Heavy Rain
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/08/27/video-midweek-fropa-looking-ahead-to-labor-day-weekend/
Aug 25
VIDEO: Stormy Open To Our Saturday; Looking Ahead Towards Labor Day…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/08/25/video-stormy-open-to-our-saturday-looking-ahead-towards-labor-day/
Aug 20
Heavy Storms For Some Tonight And Looking Ahead…
A warm front is draped across the state this evening. At the same time, surface low pressure is spinning across north-central MO with a trailing cold front entering IL. This evening, a warm and moist airmass continues to advect into central Indiana.
As we type this update, widely scattered thunderstorms are impacting areas from Lafayette to the northeast side of Indianapolis. A more organized complex of thunderstorms is firing to our southwest- from south-central IL to southeastern MO and into AR. This is ahead of the cold front.
Looking at forecast radar products, the majority of data brings a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through central parts of the state around 9p to 10p, continuing into the overnight and predawn hours.
9p forecast radar
11p forecast radar
2a forecast radar
5a forecast radar
With high precipitable water values in place (approaching 2″ through tonight), locally heavy rain is likely with thunderstorms through the night. We expect widespread additional rainfall tonight of 0.50″ to 1″ with locally heavier amounts. A few embedded strong to severe storms are also possible tonight with the primary concern being damaging straight line winds and large hail, but an isolated quick spin-up tornado can’t be ruled out. We suggest ensuring your weather radio is set with the ‘alert mode’ on tonight.
As we flip the page, a few scattered showers will remain in our forecast Tuesday PM before a much cooler and drier air mass invades Tuesday evening- continuing into Friday morning. Several central Indiana neighborhoods will dip into the 40s Thursday and Friday mornings.
2a forecast temperatures Thursday.
Enjoy the cooler air while you’ve got it, as a developing heat wave will engulf much of the region as we close the month and open September. Needless to say, despite the unofficial end to summer just around the corner, there’s still plenty of summer left in the tank. This is the type pattern that can produce an extended stretch of lows around 70° and highs around 90°.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/08/20/heavy-storms-for-some-tonight-and-looking-ahead/
Aug 17
VIDEO: Storms Diminish Tonight; Early Week System Delivers Strong Storms & A Hint Of Fall…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/08/17/video-storms-diminish-tonight-early-week-system-delivers-strong-storms-a-hint-of-fall/
Aug 16
VIDEO: Bumpy Start Friday; Early Week Storm Is Followed By A “Hint” Of Fall…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/08/16/video-bumpy-start-friday-early-week-storm-is-followed-by-a-hint-of-fall/
Aug 14
VIDEO: Heavy Rain And Cooler Air On The Horizon…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/08/14/video-heavy-rain-and-cooler-air-on-the-horizon/
Aug 14
Periods Of Heavy Rain Move In For The 2nd Half Of The Week…
Tuesday will remain dry across central Indiana with plentiful sunshine and warm temperatures. The quiet times will give way to unsettled conditions as we progress through the second half of the week, including periods of locally heavy rain.
This is all part of a pattern that will remain active around these parts. We note the latest European model delivers three storm systems between now and this time next week. Each of these systems will be capable of producing hefty rainfall across the region.
In the more immediate term, after a dry Tuesday, rain will arrive on the scenes Wednesday afternoon.
Forecast radar 1p Wednesday. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.
Rainfall coverage and overall intensity will increase as Wednesday evening gives way to night, continuing into Thursday morning.
Forecast radar 11p Wednesday. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.
Forecast radar 6a Thursday. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.
Note the high resolution models suggesting widespread precipitable water values (PWATs) in excess of 2″. This is a significant ingredient that will help fuel heavy rain Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.
As mentioned above, a couple of other storm systems promise for continued unsettled times over the weekend and on into early next week. When we total things up by the middle of next week, both the GFS and European model agree on widespread 3″ to 5″ totals.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/08/14/periods-of-heavy-rain-move-in-for-the-2nd-half-of-the-week/
Aug 13
VIDEO: Midweek Storm System Delivers Renewed Heavy Rain Threat…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/08/13/video-midweek-storm-system-delivers-renewed-heavy-rain-threat/
Aug 12
Looking At The Week Ahead: Relatively Quiet Open Gives Way To Active Times…
High pressure will dominate our early week weather. With the exception of an isolated shower or thunderstorm across eastern portions of central Indiana this afternoon, most should remain rain-free through the daytime hours Tuesday.
A couple of showers may impact e-central parts of the state later this afternoon. Most will remain rain-free. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.
High pressure will keep the majority of the region quiet to open the new week.
The pattern will begin to turn busy once again as we move into midweek. An approaching storm system will increase shower and thunderstorm chances late Tuesday night through Thursday. While it won’t rain the entire time, locally heavy downpours are expected at times during the midweek stretch.
Most of central Indiana can expect to pick up 0.75″ to 1.25″ of rain during the aforementioned period, but there will be locally heavier totals.
Looking towards next weekend, forecast models generally agree on active times continuing, but disagree on the important specifics. We’ll go with a “blend” right now and increase rain chances again Saturday and Sunday- after a briefly drier Friday. The ranges are anywhere from a flood threat, such as the European currently suggests, to typical scattered showers and thunderstorms, per the latest GFS. Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune through the upcoming week.
This is all part of a continued active weather pattern that will likely produce above normal precipitation as we close out the month and look towards September…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/08/12/looking-at-the-week-ahead-relatively-quiet-open-gives-way-to-active-times/
Aug 07
VIDEO: No Looking Back On The Active, Wet Pattern…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/08/07/video-no-looking-back-on-the-active-wet-pattern/