A cold front is slowly sinking south and will feature a weak wave of low pressure that will track along the boundary Tuesday. The end result spells for increased chances of showers and thunderstorms across central Indiana over the upcoming 24-36 hours.
Initially, we expect an area of thunderstorms to push south and potentially impact north-central portions of the state later tonight. The latest high resolution NAM forecast radar gives us an idea what the radar may look like late tonight- just after midnight.
Some of the storms across the northern third of the state may “pulse” to severe levels this evening, including the potential of large hail and damaging winds. (This complex will weaken as it surges south later tonight).
As we turn our attention to Tuesday, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. A few strong storms are possible, including locally heavy rain.
Eventually, drier times will return by mid-week. Beforehand, most central Indiana rain gauges should receive somewhere between 0.50″ to 1″ of rain. With a rich, tropical airmass in place, there will be some locally heavier totals.
Image courtesy of weathermodels.com
Image courtesy of weathermodels.com
As the cold front moves south during the midweek stretch, drier times will return Wednesday and Thursday. With that said, the drier regime won’t last long, as a cut off upper low “mucks” things up over the weekend. While it certainly won’t rain the entire time, daily rain chances will return late Friday, continuing throughout the weekend. There’s no need to cancel any outdoor plans, but have the rain gear handy, as you’ll likely need it at times throughout the weekend.
A “cut off” upper low will impact the region this weekend. Image courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com.
Speaking of rain and overall unsettled times, the pattern sure looks active around these parts into the mid and longer range. More on that in future updates…
Longer range data suggests wetter than normal times throughout the Ohio Valley mid and late August. Image courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com.
That storm system will settle south and begin to impact central Indiana early next week with storm chances increasing Monday into Tuesday. With rich tropical moisture in place, locally heavy rain will be likely as the front moves in.
Models are in overall agreement of additional significant rainfall early next week (widespread 1″ to 2″).
Changes begin to take place as we move into the second half of the weekend as a storm system organizes to our west. I still think most of the day will be rain-free, but we’ll notice increasing cloudiness and will mention the potential of a scattered, light shower.
This is only an “appetizer” to the main course which will arrive late Monday into Tuesday. Tuesday continues to look like a wash out across the region with the potential of locally heavy rain, as well. The culprit? A surface area of low pressure and associated front that will move through the state.
In addition to the expected Tuesday soaker, unseasonably cool temperatures will remain. In fact, most of the day on Tuesday should be spent in the 60s…
As we look ahead, our weekend weather will continue to be dominated by a “cut off” area of low pressure. As it meanders around the region, shower and thunderstorm chances will remain. Aerial coverage of rain will reach greatest heights during the afternoon and evening hours today and Sunday. With the colder air aloft, don’t be surprised if a few of the stronger showers produce hail.
Additionally, highs today will run close to 10° below the average high of the mid-80s.
Longer term, the NEW JMA Weeklies suggest the worst of the summer heat is now behind us as they keeps the Weeks 3-4 time period unseasonably refreshing…
We’ll notice thunderstorms becoming more numerous for our friends in Illinois through the afternoon and evening, but central Indiana should remain mostly dry until tonight. Forecast radar products want to bring these storms into the state after the 7p to 8p time frame. We’ll keep close tabs on radar trends this afternoon.
(Again, with high moisture content, any thunderstorm that passes through your neighborhood will be capable of producing torrential rainfall). For that matter, the same story can be said with storms that develop Sunday and Monday, as precipitable water values will remain around 2″ until the front sweeps through the state.
Overall, dry conditions should prevail until late next weekend when a secondary, even stronger, front will make a run at the region. We’ll ramp storm chances back up ahead of this expected front and the air mass behind the boundary in the Week 2 time period will be even cooler than we we’ll enjoy the middle part of the upcoming week.
Speaking of cool, the pattern continues to look vastly different as we put a wrap on the month than what we’ve grown accustomed to over the past couple of weeks. Note the dominant trough the models show setting up shop over the Mid West…