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Category: GFS
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-cooler-for-midweek-discussing-christmas-snow/
Dec 10
Intriguing Look As We Move Closer To Christmas…
Temperatures will attempt to approach seasonal norms Monday (average high this time of year is 40°) before arctic reinforcements blow into town Monday night and Tuesday.
This will keep highs in the middle 20s Tuesday with wind chill values in the single digits and teens most of the day.
Scattered snow showers and embedded lake-generated squalls will accompany this arctic surge Tuesday. As the wind trajectory sets up shop Tuesday afternoon, lake effect snow bands will impact portions of northeast and east-central Indiana.
4a forecast radar Tuesday
10a forecast radar Tuesday
5p forecast radar Tuesday
Cold weather will continue to dominate through the work week and an additional upper level disturbance may try to ignite snow showers Thursday.
As we push into the 8-10 day time frame, a “relaxation” of the cold is anticipated, but, as we’ve been discussing, any sort of moderation will be brief in this weather pattern. Cold looks to continue to dominate, overall. With that said, there will be a window of opportunity early next week where temperatures will go above normal for a change and the European ensemble shows this brief moderation nicely.
This doesn’t last long as the pattern begins to reload as Christmas week approaches. As the evolution to a fresh cold pattern takes place, there’s a window of opportunity present for a more significant wintry system to potentially impact the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic region. Notice the relatively “flat” ridge across the southern tier and associated tight thermal gradient. This look suggests we need to be on guard for the chance of a storm system to ride the thermal gradient in a west-to-east fashion, and has wintry implications for our region. Far too early for specifics; just know the possibility looms of a wintry event, locally, as Christmas week nears.
Speaking of Christmas, it sure appears as if cold will overwhelm the pattern for Christmas, itself, and the overall cold regime doesn’t show signs of letting up (with the exception of potentially a day or two) into the new year.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/intriguing-look-as-we-move-closer-to-christmas/
Jun 11
Model Data Remains Consistent On A More Active Pattern Returning…
Today’s 12z model suite is in and it remains consistent on a more active weather pattern returning to the delight of many Hoosiers! A blend of the GFS and European 10-day rainfall numbers print out 2″ for Indianapolis. The GFS ensemble ‘mean’ (a blend of 21 individual members) agrees.
Best overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms should come in (3) waves over the upcoming 10-day period:
- Wednesday into Thursday
- Saturday into Sunday
- Middle parts of the following week
While we don’t see any sort of uniform type rains in the upcoming period, the “smattering” of storms should help most neighborhoods get in on the rainy “goods” at one time or another over the upcoming week and a half. Keep in mind, we’re in mid-June now and it’s mighty difficult to ask for anything much more than scattered storms this time of year on through late-summer…unless a tropical entity gets involved. That’s just the way this time of year is. With that said, localized torrential downpours are a very good bet from time to time, beginning as early as mid-week, as precipitable water values approach, or exceed, 2″ (about as moisture-rich as you can ask the air mass to get around these parts) into the upcoming weekend.
As I type this outside on the back porch this evening, I hear the sounds of sprinklers in full-force through the ‘hood. Thankfully, Mother Nature will help save on the water bill later this week. Longer-term, you’ll hear us use the word “transient” many times this summer when discussing the overall weather pattern. Thankfully that tends to result in a fairly busy time of things. Before you know it, college football season will be back (83 days until my beloved Auburn Tigers kick-off), those wetter autumn storms will return, and thoughts will begin to shift to winter (they may have already started here :-))- not that we’re trying to rush summer away or anything…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/model-data-remains-consistent-on-a-more-active-pattern-returning/
Jun 10
Developing Hot Pattern Doesn’t Last; Cooler And Wetter Times Loom…
Through the short-term, there are two words that will sum up Indiana’s weather: Dry and Hot. We’re entering a stretch where the overall weather pattern will promote an expanding hot dome in the coming days, and put many communities across the state solidly in position to break the 90° mark on multiple days.
Expanding upper ridge means hot times loom late weekend into early next week.
However, this increasingly hot and dry pattern will be a transient one. This morning’s European model shows the evolution to cooler and increasingly wet, unsettled times nicely as we progress into the 6-10 day period.
The GFS ensemble would also agree in the overall pattern shift back to cooler and unsettled conditions as early as mid-late next week.
The 10-day GEFS ‘mean’ is a beautiful sight as moisture returns.
Updated 7-day out later this afternoon! Enjoy a beautiful Saturday, friends!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/developing-hot-pattern-doesnt-last-cooler-and-wetter-times-loom/
Feb 17
VIDEO: Spring-Like Weekend…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-spring-like-weekend/