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Category: GFS
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-hint-of-fall-the-next-couple-mornings/
May 29
Light At The End Of The Tunnel From The Recent Dry Regime?
In our JMA Weekly recap from last week, we noted the model was transitioning towards a wetter pattern for early and mid June.
It’s encouraging to see the latest ensemble data from the American GFS and European (courtesy of TropicalTidbits.com) support this idea, as well.
In addition to a wetter pattern, we would also want to pay attention to the potential of a gusty storm complex or two riding southeast around the hot dome off to our southwest.
After an unusually dry May (- 3.44″ as of this post), Alberto’s remnant moisture will help us, at the very least, cut into the rainfall deficit tomorrow. Longer term, it sure is nice to see the medium range guidance in agreement on a wetter time of things. As we’re all aware, this is a crucial time to determine the overall long-standing summer pattern. Dry ground and early warmth can easily “feedback” on itself, and it’s easy to understand some of the concern, particularly AG-related over the past few weeks. With that said, it’s certainly not too late to try and at least ease some of the worry a bit.
When we look at the MJO, we note the amplitude and it’s forecast to swing through the wetter phases, at least locally, (4,5,6) through the month of June:
In closing, the JMA Weeklies led the charge in the idea of more active times returning in June, and the combination of GFS and European ensemble data suggests they had merit. With the added bonus of having the MJO on our side, it’ll be hard to avoid a change of the guard towards an overall wetter pattern in the weeks ahead. Perhaps Alberto’s remnant moisture is only the beginning…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel-from-the-recent-dry-regime/
Dec 19
VIDEO: Cooler For Midweek; Discussing Christmas Snow…
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Dec 10
Intriguing Look As We Move Closer To Christmas…
Temperatures will attempt to approach seasonal norms Monday (average high this time of year is 40°) before arctic reinforcements blow into town Monday night and Tuesday.
This will keep highs in the middle 20s Tuesday with wind chill values in the single digits and teens most of the day.
Scattered snow showers and embedded lake-generated squalls will accompany this arctic surge Tuesday. As the wind trajectory sets up shop Tuesday afternoon, lake effect snow bands will impact portions of northeast and east-central Indiana.
4a forecast radar Tuesday
10a forecast radar Tuesday
5p forecast radar Tuesday
Cold weather will continue to dominate through the work week and an additional upper level disturbance may try to ignite snow showers Thursday.
As we push into the 8-10 day time frame, a “relaxation” of the cold is anticipated, but, as we’ve been discussing, any sort of moderation will be brief in this weather pattern. Cold looks to continue to dominate, overall. With that said, there will be a window of opportunity early next week where temperatures will go above normal for a change and the European ensemble shows this brief moderation nicely.
This doesn’t last long as the pattern begins to reload as Christmas week approaches. As the evolution to a fresh cold pattern takes place, there’s a window of opportunity present for a more significant wintry system to potentially impact the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic region. Notice the relatively “flat” ridge across the southern tier and associated tight thermal gradient. This look suggests we need to be on guard for the chance of a storm system to ride the thermal gradient in a west-to-east fashion, and has wintry implications for our region. Far too early for specifics; just know the possibility looms of a wintry event, locally, as Christmas week nears.
Speaking of Christmas, it sure appears as if cold will overwhelm the pattern for Christmas, itself, and the overall cold regime doesn’t show signs of letting up (with the exception of potentially a day or two) into the new year.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/intriguing-look-as-we-move-closer-to-christmas/
Jun 11
Model Data Remains Consistent On A More Active Pattern Returning…
Today’s 12z model suite is in and it remains consistent on a more active weather pattern returning to the delight of many Hoosiers! A blend of the GFS and European 10-day rainfall numbers print out 2″ for Indianapolis. The GFS ensemble ‘mean’ (a blend of 21 individual members) agrees.
Best overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms should come in (3) waves over the upcoming 10-day period:
- Wednesday into Thursday
- Saturday into Sunday
- Middle parts of the following week
While we don’t see any sort of uniform type rains in the upcoming period, the “smattering” of storms should help most neighborhoods get in on the rainy “goods” at one time or another over the upcoming week and a half. Keep in mind, we’re in mid-June now and it’s mighty difficult to ask for anything much more than scattered storms this time of year on through late-summer…unless a tropical entity gets involved. That’s just the way this time of year is. With that said, localized torrential downpours are a very good bet from time to time, beginning as early as mid-week, as precipitable water values approach, or exceed, 2″ (about as moisture-rich as you can ask the air mass to get around these parts) into the upcoming weekend.
As I type this outside on the back porch this evening, I hear the sounds of sprinklers in full-force through the ‘hood. Thankfully, Mother Nature will help save on the water bill later this week. Longer-term, you’ll hear us use the word “transient” many times this summer when discussing the overall weather pattern. Thankfully that tends to result in a fairly busy time of things. Before you know it, college football season will be back (83 days until my beloved Auburn Tigers kick-off), those wetter autumn storms will return, and thoughts will begin to shift to winter (they may have already started here :-))- not that we’re trying to rush summer away or anything…
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