Category: Forecast Models

Smorgasbord Of Weather!

Posts this weekend will be a bit “off schedule” as I celebrate my brother’s graduation.  That said, posts will hit the site over the weekend and we’ll also keep you updated on our Twitter feed- @indywx.  A busy time of things lies ahead and a very active weather pattern will carry us into this time next week.  Let’s get into some of the details!

1.) (2) rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be likely Friday.  Weakening showers and embedded thunder will dissipate moving into central Indiana Friday morning.  That said, depending on the amount of clearing that takes place behind the first wave of showers and storms will go a long way into determining the severity of round two Friday evening.  The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) continues to highlight our area for a Slight Risk of severe weather (primary threats are large hail and damaging straight line winds) Friday evening.  We also note the latest high resolution NAM simulated radar shows potential strong to severe thunderstorms moving in tomorrow evening.

hires_ref_indy_24

2.) A second heavy rain and storm maker will arrive early next week. The Gulf of Mexico is open for business and suggests some locally heavy downpours are a good bet with both storms.  This isn’t bad news as it’s been dry as of late.  We’re now on day 9 without measurable precipitation and that will be changing in a big way over the upcoming 7 day period.  Widespread 2″-2.5″ rains are a good bet over the upcoming week, including some locally heavier totals.

gfs_pwat_mslp_east_37

The detailed video discussion below covers more on the severe chances, heavy rain threat, and a much cooler pattern ahead!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/smorgasbord-of-weather/

Catching Up On A Tuesday Morning!

Good morning and happy Tuesday!  We’re looking forward to a beautiful, and warm, few days ahead before unsettled conditions return by late week.  The video covers those details below.

Monday’s highs displayed quite the spread across the state- ranging from near 90 down state to the upper 50s across far northeastern Indiana.  Here across central Indiana, many enjoyed upper 60s to near 70 on Monday.  (Click on the image to enlarge).

t0

Despite the surge of warmth coming mid week, and likely again early next week, the overall theme is one that’s cooler than normal for mid May.  Note the strong trough developing over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

z500_anom_f216_ussm

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Video discussing today’s forecast and looking ahead to the weekend and beyond:

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/catching-up-on-a-tuesday-morning/

Cool Late Week Stretch…

Thr.

Fri.

Sat.

Sun.

Mon.

Tue.

Wed.

 Status-weather-showers-day-icon

 Status-weather-showers-day-icon

 Status-weather-showers-day-icon

 Status-weather-showers-day-icon

 Status-weather-showers-day-icon

 Status-weather-showers-day-icon

 Status-weather-clouds-icon

42/ 52

41/ 53

43/ 67

49/ 63

45/ 71

56/ 73

58/ 81 

Light

Light

Light

Light

Light

Light

– – –

The region will remain under the influence of a chilly and, at times, damp upper low as we wrap up the work week.  While we’ll keep mention of an isolated to scattered shower into the weekend, most of the weekend will remain rain-free. A warm front will lift north through the region early next week, helping temperatures reach the warmest of the season so far.  We think the years first 80 degree reading will be registered by the middle part of the week.  A new storm system promises another round of active weather beyond the forecast period.

– We’re experiencing technical issues with our video recorder software.  We’ve cut two videos for today’s forecast, but neither will publish correctly.  We’ll continue to work on this and try to post a video briefing later this evening.

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/cool-late-week-stretch-more-on-the-longer-term/

Tuesday Evening Update!

Quick evening update to discuss the overnight period and look at the cooler pattern moving in for late week.

Showers will diminish during the overnight and gusty northwest winds will deliver a cooler air mass that will hang on as we put a wrap on the work week:

hrrr_t2m_min_indy_15

The video below has more details!  Have a great evening!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tuesday-evening-update/

Keeping A Close Eye On Severe Potential This Evening…

The region is still very much under the gun for potential severe weather this afternoon and tonight.  That said, the severe threat across central Indiana is highly dependable on just how easy we’re able to shake the clouds and rain this morning.  Sometimes modeling (even high resolution data) struggles with this.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlines the region for a Slight Risk of severe weather- again the primary threat time lies this afternoon into tonight.

day1otlk_1200

Latest high resolution data suggests we’re able to clear things out this afternoon and introduce sunshine to help add heat and further destabilize our local atmosphere (not a good thing), which would help lead to rather robust thunderstorm development.

Note the simulated satellite data showing the dreaded clearing from now through the afternoon:

hrrr_cloud_indy_1hrrr_cloud_indy_13

Latest high resolution data suggests potential super cell thunderstorms begin to fire to our west as early as 4-6pm.  We’ll keep a close eye on things.

hrrr_ref_indy_13

Bottom line, a significant severe weather threat is present this evening into tonight.  We’ll hope the clouds and rain linger longer than modeling currently projects as this would greatly limit the potential heating and destabilization and subsequent severe risk.  That said, it’s important to note current data does suggest we break into afternoon sunshine.

Greatest severe risks here appear to be large hail, damaging straight line winds, and a possible tornado.  Be sure to have a way to get the latest weather information this afternoon and tonight.  Stay safe out there!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/keeping-a-close-eye-on-severe-potential-this-evening/