Category: Forecast Models

Big, Wet Storm System Sitting On Deck…

Enjoy the weekend, my friends, as a big and wet storm system awaits on deck to impact early to mid week across the region.

November, so far, has followed suit of the past few months in a much drier than normal regime.  Over the past (7) days heaviest rains fell across SE portions of the state.  On the month so far, IND sits around 1″ below normal.

Past 7 day precipitation anomalies, courtesy of the MidWest Climate Watch.

Past 7 day precipitation anomalies, courtesy of the MidWest Climate Watch.

That rainfall deficit may be eaten up over the course of a couple days as our next storm system rolls off the Rockies and into the Plains.  (Track sound familiar)?

Monday

Tuesday

WednesdayThe storm will tap into the Gulf of Mexico and include a deep southerly flow plenty capable of producing a heavy rain event across the region.  Note PWATs (precipitable water) nearly 300% of normal.PWAT

gfs_pwat_anom_conus2_18

We target Tuesday night-Wednesday as the focal point for heaviest rain potential and model data remains firm on general consensus of 2″-3″ falling with this next storm system, including locally heavier totals.

soflow

raintotalsAfter this next storm, attention will begin to shift towards a colder pattern setting up for late November, including Thanksgiving…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/big-wet-storm-system-sitting-on-deck/

Big Time Wind Event; Active Pattern…

Screen Shot 2015-11-11 at 7.17.55 AMHighlights:

  • Nighttime storms
  • Prolonged wind event
  • Eyeing our next storm

The morning has dawned with mid and high level clouds painting the back drop as the sun rises.  We’ve shared several photos on our Twitter page (@IndyWx) of the beautiful sun rise.  Thank you and keep ’em coming!

Low pressure is moving off the Rockies this morning (where another hefty snow dump took place overnight) and into the Plains.  The low will then track into the Great Lakes Thursday.  As the low moves northeast, it’ll swing a cold front through our neck of the woods Thursday morning.  We still bracket tonight into the wee morning hours Thursday for thunderstorm potential.  See the simulated radar valid at 10p this evening, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

10pWed

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) is lacking with this storm and moisture return isn’t impressive.  This is good news as it will reduce the amount of severe weather we’ll see.  However, it should be noted that it won’t take much to bring down a severe wind report or two and that is our primary concern tonight with any storm.

CAPE- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

CAPE- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Surface Dew Points- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Surface Dew Points- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Precipitable Water- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Precipitable Water- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Because of the lack of moisture return and the overall speed of the system, rainfall tonight won’t be impressive for most (0.25″-0.50″ on average) with the exception of localized stronger storms.

What will be impressive is the wind, even without storms.  A Wind Advisory has been issued for late tonight and Thursday, via the National Weather Service out of Indianapolis, and rightfully so.  We wouldn’t be surprised if a portion of this is upgraded to a High Wind Warning later today or tonight as gusts of 50 MPH+ will be a concern through the day Thursday as our low occludes over the Lakes.

A period of drier air will return to wrap up the week and head into early next week, but we eye another big storm system for the middle of next week.  Forecast models differ on precise details, as you’d expect at this juncture.

WedStormTrack

ThrStormTrack

The GFS (above) isn’t shying away from another significant impact event.  The European isn’t as bullish early on.  All mid range models do produce moderate to heavy rains over the region.  Stay tuned as we continue to monitor.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/big-time-wind-event-active-pattern/

Video Update: Chilly Weekend; Severe Potential Next Week…

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UPDATED SST CA Model Is In The House…

As promised, we wanted to provide some thoughts around the updated sea surface temperature constructed analog model that was released this morning.  In short, there aren’t many huge differences from…

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Wednesday Morning Video Update: Tricky Temperature Forecast Today; Looking Ahead…

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