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Category: Forecast Models
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-stormy-weather-unfolds-late-wednesday-night-early-fall-like-weather-this-weekend/
Jul 22
VIDEO: Oppressive Feel Gives Way To Strong Storms…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-oppressive-feel-gives-way-to-strong-storms/
Jul 20
JMA Weeklies: Seasonal Pattern To Open August
The new JMA Weeklies are in and highlighted by the following:
- Central hot pattern doesn’t last
- Seasonal pattern takes hold
- Heat builds across the Northeast region
Week 1:
Hottest anomalies remain across the central region, but the days are numbered on this pulse of heat and the JMA Weeklies suggest a cooler, more seasonal, pattern looms to close July and open August. We note the wet regime across the Southwest region, where associated cooler anomalies are also located.
Week 2:
It’s a “book end” hot pattern that includes heat along both the Northwest region and a developing hot pattern over the Northeast. The central region, including here on the home front, looks very seasonal. With a subtle northwest flow aloft, we’ll have to be mindful of storm complexes at times.
Weeks 3-4:
Our attention is drawn to the heat across the Northeast region and the cooler, wetter regime (relative to average) across the Southwest. Locally, there aren’t any strong indications for big time heat or heavy rains.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/jma-weeklies-seasonal-pattern-to-open-august/
Jul 17
Monday Morning Rambles…
1.) July, MTD, is running slightly cooler (- 0.1°) and much wetter (+ 2.31″) than average across the region.
2.) While the radar is rain and storm-free this morning, a left over boundary, combined with daytime heating will help spark isolated to widely scattered storm coverage this afternoon.
3.) The big weather story this week will be an increasingly hot and humid feel once to mid and late week, including the weekend. While today will continue the theme of slightly cooler than average from the weekend, we’ll more than make up for the refreshing feel later this week. Highs will push to around 90° Wednesday through Sunday as the ridge expands.
4.) Despite the hot and humid feel that develops this week, it won’t last. Like so many other times this summer that heat tries to build east, the transient weather pattern will continue to prevent it from “hitting and holding.” You guessed it, as we transition from the hot conditions to cooler weather next week, rain and storm chances will be on the increase, including the potential of heavy rain. As of now, best rain and storm chances appear lined up for late week through the weekend and into early next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/monday-morning-rambles-5/
Jul 10
Active Times This Week…
The overall set-up this week will include a northwest flow aloft with multiple disturbances riding southeast out of the upper Mid West into the Ohio Valley. Each disturbance will aid in helping ignite more widespread rain and thunderstorms. The first couple waves of rain and thunderstorms look to impact central Indiana late morning into the early afternoon before the potential of additional thunderstorms late evening into the overnight. Some of the storms may become severe, including damaging winds.
A quick step outside this morning will tell the story on just how different it feels. Gone is the refreshing air mass we enjoyed over the weekend and in return we’ve transitioned to an oppressive, tropical feel. Dew points will remain in the 70s through the majority of the work week and precipitable water values will reach 2″+ at times. With such a moisture laden air mass in place, flash flooding will likely result for some communities as the storms continue to track over the same areas this week.
Additional waves of thunderstorms will impact the region through mid-and-late week before we advect some drier air into the state Friday evening into the weekend. Despite the lower dew points and cooler air, we still can’t rule out a shower or thunderstorm this weekend as a secondary front settles south.
When we total things up in the rainfall department through Saturday, widespread 2″-3″ can be expected, however, as mentioned, where storms “train,” much higher totals of 3″-6″+ will be a good bet.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/active-times-this-week/