Category: Forecast Discussion

Jan 15

Series Of Fast Moving Snow Makers…

A series of fast moving snow makers will make for busy times in the good ole forecast office in the days (and weeks) ahead.

Of course we’re dealing with scattered snow showers this morning, but this really isn’t a big deal as accumulations will be nothing more than a dusting for most communities.

Our next clipper system will deposit light snow and snow showers across the region Thursday and Friday.  Short-term, high resolution data, highlights the chance of some light accumulation Thursday into Friday- generally an inch or less for most.  Here’s a look at the latest simulated radar valid Thursday morning at 8am and Friday at 4am:

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We then look ahead towards Saturday when potentially the best shot of accumulating snow arrives.  The GFS has been leading the way on this system and now other forecast models are following it’s lead.  It’s important to note that these northwest flow systems can be over-achievers (as mentioned in previous posts) and the “fluff effect” can really kick into gear thanks to high snow ratios with the cold air.  We’ll continue to monitor this.  As of now, we think a few inches of snow is possible Saturday as this clipper moves through.  Stay tuned…

gfs_ptype_slp_east_15gfs_ptype_slp_east_16

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/series-of-fast-moving-snow-makers/

Jan 13

Cold, Snowy Pattern Reloading…

I sure hope you’ve taken time to get out and enjoy a couple of days of milder air (temperatures have run 10-12 degrees above seasonal levels the past couple days) and even some sunshine.  Given what I see coming down the road, the trend that looks to take a colder turn this week may really go into the tank week two.

Here’s an overview of the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble data out at Days 8 through 10 (January 21st-23rd).  Both of these, more trusted, mid to long range computer models suggest a cold pattern locks itself into the East once again, and spells for colder than average temperatures and potentially a snowier than normal regime.

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We’ll now dive a little deeper into the forecast model vault, courtesy of the unbelievable Weatherbell Analytics model suite (can’t brag on that company enough).  We’re looking at the Northern Hemisphere Upper Air Pattern, courtesy of the European ensemble control run from this afternoon.

Note the mid week trough set to deliver a return of arctic air into the region.  That’s reinforced with a late week trough and renewed arctic air.  Both cold air masses will be capable of producing light accumulating snow across the area.

Per yesterday’s post, as we get into the early to middle portion of next week, we’ll have to keep a close eye on the potential of the southern and northern branches of the jet stream phasing, which would lead to a significant winter storm across some parts of the eastern half of the country (far too early for specifics or details).

We then note the Polar Vortex recharges itself and threatens to turn the last week to 10 days of January very cold.  How cold is yet to be determined, but I think it’s a safe bet sub-zero temperatures aren’t finished with our area just yet.

Intrusions of very cold arctic air will “pinwheel” around the Polar Vortex and likely lead to a bitterly cold end of January and open to February…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/cold-snowy-pattern-reloading/

Jan 09

Bet On The Colder Look…

Sometimes in life there are things much more important than the weather and so has been the case the past few days. Moving forward, posts will be a bit erratic,…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/bet-on-the-colder-look/

Jan 05

“Memorable” Winter Storm Just Beginning…

Our severe winter storm is just in the beginning stages and we’ll note rapidly deteriorating conditions moving into the afternoon and on into the night.  Please don’t take this storm lightly. Conditions will become life threatening this afternoon into Monday and don’t be surprised if Blizzard Warnings are issued today.

 Here are some quick bullet points you need to know:

  • 2″ per hour snow rates develop this afternoon
  • The pressure “gradient” tightens tonight leading to Blizzard conditions from late afternoon into Monday morning
  • 9-12″ of snow from Indy and points north, 5-9″ south-central Indiana
  • Drifts grow to 3-5 feet overnight into Monday (local drifts to 6 feet likely for the open country)
  • Monday’s high: 12 BELOW zero (not a typo)
  • Wind Chills: 40-50 BELOW zero by Monday morning

Latest high-resolution model data in house puts down widespread snow total of one foot, including Indianapolis, Zionsville, Noblesville, Avon, Anderson just to name a few…

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Please be sure to hunker down today and remain inside if at all possible.  Conditions will become life threatening upon venturing out of your home tonight and Monday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/memorable-winter-storm-just-beginning/

Jan 04

Serious Winter Storm Takes Aim On Indiana

We awake this morning to most of the data very consistent with what we’ve been passing along to you over the past few days…a very serious winter storm is taking aim on Indiana and will result in a combination of significant weather events that ultimately may end up being something we’ll remember for quite some time…

Quick Bullet Points:

  • Snow develops early Saturday morning
  • Heaviest snow falls between 10a-5p
  • Wind increases through the day Sunday and gusts in excess of 30 MPH leading to white outs and severe blowing and drifting
  • Temperatures crash to 10-14 below zero Monday morning with wind chill values of 40 to 50 below zero.
  • Widespread snowfall of 5-9″ is likely across central Indiana, with a heavier band of 9-12″ including Indianapolis and running along and just north of the I-70 corridor on the south side north to include Vermillion to Adams counties on the north side.

This is a hazardous and severe winter weather event that will likely lead to road closures from the heavy snow and wind, as well as extremely dangerous conditions to spend anytime outdoors Sunday into early next week due to the cold.  The bitter wind chills will be capable of frostbite in less than 30 minutes to any exposed skin.

Latest model data shows consistency in precipitation amounts, or QPF. We’re showing you the GFS, Canadian, and European models below.  Please note that the numbers and maps below don’t show snowfall amounts, but show precipitation totals.  Bring in a 12-15:1 snowfall ratio with these numbers and you get the snowfall discussed above.  We’re leaning heavily on a Canadian/ European model blend as the GFS has been more erratic.

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Much more later this evening!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/serious-winter-storm-takes-aim-on-indiana/