Category: European Model

More On The “Typhoon Rule”

Perhaps you’ve heard folks discuss the “typhoon rule” over the past few weeks. What I despise is when people take credit for certain ideas without giving credit where credit is…

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Catching Up On A Tuesday Evening…

Several interesting weather items are on the docket and each will have to be dealt with as they come over the course of the upcoming 7 days.  Some of the headlines include a brief warm-up Saturday, weekend rain that could include a tropical connection Sunday, and another big shot of October-like chill next week.

While we have a few more days of below normal temperatures in front of us, we eye at least one day where temperatures will manage to climb above normal and that’s Saturday.  All indications still suggest we’ll be very close, if not a degree or two higher, than the 80 degree mark along with a nice southwest air flow in place Saturday.  All-in-all, it’ll be a great day to take care of any early-autumn yard work that’s needing to get done.

Changes brew Sunday as a cold front draws near.  This is where questions lie and they actually have to do with Tropical Storm Odile (currently all the way to our southwest over the central Baja California peninsula region).  Odilemoisture

While the GFS and European forecast models still aren’t interested in “welcoming” Odile’s moisture into the region, we note the Canadian model does suggest some tropical moisture, courtesy of Odile, gets entangled along the front Sunday.  We’ll continue to keep a close eye on things and monitor the forecast data accordingly moving forward through the back half of the work week.

 

The other item of interest has to do with yet another big blast of autumn air that will have things feeling very much like October around these parts come early next week.  The above average temperatures Saturday will hang around just for the day as yet another unseasonably chilly air mass moves into the area Monday into Tuesday of next week as a significant trough develops over the east with an impressive western ridge in place.  f156

 

Note the GEFS and Canadian show the return of the unseasonable chill next week.  Keep those jackets handy.  Early indications would suggest this type air mass is plenty capable of highs in the upper 50s/ lower 60s and overnight lows in the upper 30s/ lower 40s during the height of the chill (most likely Tuesday).  Stay tuned…

2014091600_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198gefs_t2anom_by5_conus_45

 

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Wet Pattern Looks To Continue Into Mid Month…

I was out and about earlier today and taking note that local lawns are much greener than they typically have been over the past few years by early September.  We can thank recent rains and warmth, but it’s been a wet year, overall, to date.  Think back to all of the winter snows and then add the copious spring and summer rains.  The end result so far?  2014 is running close to 2″ above normal precipitation at IND.

Overnight rains went close to forecast.  We picked up 1″ on the dot in the city, including northern ‘burbs.  (IndyWx.com HQ in southern Boone County also picked up 1″).  Heavier rains and localized flash flooding took place down state.

A look at today’s rainfall:

conus_precip-composite_hi_res

Moving forward, the pattern over the upcoming (2) weeks appears wetter than normal.

In the shorter term, the GFS and Canadian paint a wet picture out by Days 7-10 (BTW- the European agrees).

gfs_tprecip_ma_65

 

cmc_total_precip_ma_41

Modeling suggests 2-3″ type rainfall is possible over the upcoming 7-10 day period.  A transient pattern can be thanked for the overall wet forecast.

The CFSv2 also suggests precipitation runs 150%-200% of normal levels through mid September.

cfs_tprecip_anom_noram_2014090212_61

As harvest begins across some Hoosier farm lands, note the increased wetness in the pattern through the upcoming 14 days, or so.

The region will remain in an active pattern through the next couple weeks, at least, as we lie in the battle ground between a stubborn southeastern ridge and an increasingly active early fall northern stream.  A wetter than normal mid west will ensue…

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Cooler To Open September?

As we move through the next week, we continue to think we’ll cool things off as we wrap up August. We’re not talking about any sort of major unseasonably cool…

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Tuesday Afternoon Video Update; Closer Look At Friday.

This afternoon’s video update takes a closer look at what continues to appear to be a rather cool, rainy close to the work week.  Widespread soaking rains and temperatures that remain in the 60s Friday are very possible for some portions of our area.

The Canadian forecast model has remained most consistent on Friday's forecast and holds firm on an axis of heavy rain through central Indiana.

The Canadian forecast model has remained most consistent on Friday’s forecast and holds firm on an axis of heavy rain through central Indiana.

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