I. While we certainly aren’t talking about significant weather events between now and Christmas Day, there will be a couple of impulses of upper level energy that may be just strong enough to produce snow showers and flurries at times. We’re tracking (2) weak disturbances that stand a chance to get a couple of snow showers going Sunday evening and again Christmas Day. The one on Christmas, itself, will be a bit stronger and may have a shield of more organized precipitation- likely that would start as wet snow before transitioning to rain before ending.
II. A much stronger storm system will wrap up to our northwest Wednesday night and Thursday. We’ll notice an increasingly strong southerly breeze during this time period and rain will be on the increase as we progress through the day Thursday. The trade-off? Highs between 55° and 60° to close the week- though those temperatures may actually come Thursday evening before cooler air begins to slip in here during the day Friday.
As things stand now, both the GFS and European models, courtesy of Weathermodels.com, aren’t overly excited on rainfall amounts with this storm system, but I think they’ll trend wetter as time goes on. We’ll continue to forecast amounts between 0.50″ and 1″.
III. All attention is squarely focused on a significant pattern change that takes shape as we head into the new year. As mentioned in previous posts and discussions, the transition is likely to be a stormy one, but it’s far too early to talk precipitation types. A combination of ingredients appears to be aligning to create a colder than normal (and potentially significantly so) pattern at the traditionally coldest time of year (mid-Jan).
In the more immediate term, we note the latest GEFS showcases a classic “horse shoe” block that will favor a wintry regime across the east to open the new year- thanks to Tropicaltidbits.com.
The bigger story will be localized, but intense snow bursts that will likely develop as the true push of arctic air arrives Friday evening. These will be accompanied by strong and gusty winds, as well.
We’ll awake to temperatures in the lower 20s across most of central Indiana Saturday morning. By this point in time, attention will shift to what awaits during early stages of the new work week. While details are murky with respect to the specifics associated with an eastern storm, cold air will be reinforced Monday night into Tuesday.
Keep a note in the back of your mind to check back often over the weekend concerning the forecast for early next week. Model bias (“progressive” GFS; “sluggish” Euro) appears to be running rampant from this distance and what will likely be the ultimate result is something in between. The sensible weather that would result is the opportunity for perhaps a better chance of more widespread accumulating snow across portions of the Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday.