Category Archives: European Model

Mid-December “Relaxation” Coming, But Winter Set To Roar Back With Authority Around The Holidays And Beyond…

Since this cold pattern took over in mid-October, I thought we’d see a “pull back” of sorts develop at some point.  Initially, the thinking was this would come in the middle parts of November, but that never developed.  Fast forward to where we are now, and it still appears a relaxation of the cold will develop- albeit much later than originally anticipated.  Please understand this doesn’t mean there can’t be cold days or, for that matter, even wintry “mischief.”  What it does mean is that the sustained significantly colder than normal air should reverse to seasonable levels and above normal conditions for a time around mid-month.

With that said, we’re as fired up as we’ve been for what we continue to think will be a very cold winter and, at times, snowy- as outlined in our winter outlook published last month.  In fact, the latest European Weeklies in this evening suggest winter roars back with authority around Christmastime, continuing deep into the New Year period.  Analog data and other key components (some of which were outlined in our winter outlook) would back up this idea.  Taken verbatim, the new European Weeklies like the idea of “coast-to-coast” cold developing for the holidays this year.  While I’m not ready to go that far just yet (still think the mean ridge will set-up shop in a manner to keep the northwest balmy, compared to normal), I do like the idea of a cold and active period returning late December for our part of the country…

Anyone else dreaming of a white Christmas (for the 2nd year in a row)?!

No Comments Christmas/ Thanksgiving, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Long Range Discussion, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Winter Outlook

Putting The Cold Into Perspective…

An impressive shot of early season arctic air will come at us in a 1-2 punch format to wrap up the week and head into early next week.  Before we dig deeper into the details, let’s keep in mind averages for November 9th-15th include lows in the middle 30s and highs in the middle 50s.  Multiple days during that time frame will feature highs where our average lows should be (if not even colder a couple days) and overnight lows deep into the 20s (10s perhaps on a couple nights).

The initial blast of cold air will blow into town Thursday night and Friday and will be accompanied by a chilly rain ending as a touch of wet snow across central Indiana.  This will be a “novelty” level event for most across the region, but there could be a couple of slushy accumulation reports- especially north of the city.

The bigger story will be localized, but intense snow bursts that will likely develop as the true push of arctic air arrives Friday evening.  These will be accompanied by strong and gusty winds, as well.

We’ll awake to temperatures in the lower 20s across most of central Indiana Saturday morning.  By this point in time, attention will shift to what awaits during early stages of the new work week.  While details are murky with respect to the specifics associated with an eastern storm, cold air will be reinforced Monday night into Tuesday.

Keep a note in the back of your mind to check back often over the weekend concerning the forecast for early next week.  Model bias (“progressive” GFS; “sluggish” Euro) appears to be running rampant from this distance and what will likely be the ultimate result is something in between.  The sensible weather that would result is the opportunity for perhaps a better chance of more widespread accumulating snow across portions of the Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday.

Snow prospects aside, confidence remains high that the upcoming cold pattern will be the most significant so early since the early season bitter blast of air in November ’14!

No Comments Arctic Cold, Autumn, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Harvest'18, Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather