Category: European Model

Aug 15

Winter 2018-2019 Notes…

As the calendar turns from July to August, we really begin to increase the amount of research into the upcoming winter season.  While still a couple months out from publishing our official Winter Outlook, we did want to touch base on a couple of items.

The early “baseline” of our ideas focuses on the likelihood of El Nino returning for the upcoming winter season.  As we’ve stated many times in the past, each Nino event is different from one another and other ingredients (highlighted above) can play a significant role in ultimately determining the eventual outcome.

  • Weak Modoki (central-based) Nino is expected this winter
  • SST configuration in the NPAC (north Pacific) is perhaps the most “intriguing” item at the moment
  • Low solar/ QBO

Somewhat of a surprise is that the majority of longer range, seasonal data is aligning for a cold, stormy eastern winter.  Included in the cold, stormy camp are the JAMSTEC, European, and CanSIPS.  A few snap shots are included below…

JAMSTEC Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies for meteorological winter (December through February).

JAMSTEC Surface Temperature Anomalies for meteorological winter.

CanSIPS 500mb for meteorological winter.

The CFSv2 is siding with a warmer winter, but it appears as if the model is struggling with the coming Nino and “over-hyping” things.  Accordingly, the model results in a blow torch winter.  Again, remember, we’re leaning towards a weak, central-based event.

That sea surface temperature configuration in the northern Pacific argues for western Canada ridging and downstream troughiness such as the JAMSTEC, European, and CanSIPS would imply.

Just wanted to touch base briefly on our early thinking before we release our official 2018-2019 IndyWx.com Winter Outlook in October.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/winter-2018-2019-notes/

Jul 26

VIDEO: Cold Front Inbound; Soaking Rains Early Next Week?

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Jul 24

Tuesday Morning Rambles: Drier Air Before Our Next Front…

I. Drier air will work into the region and limit rain chances today and Wednesday (isolated coverage at best). Highs will also warm back up to seasonal levels during the time.

Drier air will work into the Ohio Valley today and Wednesday. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

II. Our next frontal boundary will arrive Thursday afternoon.  Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening hours.  Behind the boundary, cooler and refreshing air will return to wrap up the work week.

Cooler, more refreshing air will return to wrap up the work week. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

III. We’re timing out our next storm system for a weekend arrival. While the weekend won’t be a wash out, rain chances will return late Saturday into Sunday. Forecast models differ on the specifics with respect to timing, track, and rainfall amounts and all will have to be fine tuned over the next few days.

The GFS is faster and more aggressive on weekend rain. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

Meanwhile, the European is slower with rain, bringing the bulk of precipitation in AFTER the weekend. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

IV. Longer range, we don’t see any significant heat on the immediate horizon. On that note, while we aren’t saying additional hot days won’t occur the rest of the way in, we continue to believe the hottest weather of the summer is behind us. The new European Weeklies in last night continued a seasonal to cooler than average theme for August into early September.  All images below are courtesy of weathermodels.com.

Days 10-17

Days 18-25

Days 25-32

Days 32-39

Days 38-45

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Jul 06

VIDEO: Hint Of Fall The Next Couple Mornings…

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May 29

Light At The End Of The Tunnel From The Recent Dry Regime?

In our JMA Weekly recap from last week, we noted the model was transitioning towards a wetter pattern for early and mid June.

It’s encouraging to see the latest ensemble data from the American GFS and European (courtesy of TropicalTidbits.com) support this idea, as well.

In addition to a wetter pattern, we would also want to pay attention to the potential of a gusty storm complex or two riding southeast around the hot dome off to our southwest.

After an unusually dry May (- 3.44″ as of this post), Alberto’s remnant moisture will help us, at the very least, cut into the rainfall deficit tomorrow.  Longer term, it sure is nice to see the medium range guidance in agreement on a wetter time of things.  As we’re all aware, this is a crucial time to determine the overall long-standing summer pattern.  Dry ground and early warmth can easily “feedback” on itself, and it’s easy to understand some of the concern, particularly AG-related over the past few weeks.  With that said, it’s certainly not too late to try and at least ease some of the worry a bit.

When we look at the MJO, we note the amplitude and it’s forecast to swing through the wetter phases, at least locally, (4,5,6) through the month of June:

In closing, the JMA Weeklies led the charge in the idea of more active times returning in June, and the combination of GFS and European ensemble data suggests they had merit.  With the added bonus of having the MJO on our side, it’ll be hard to avoid a change of the guard towards an overall wetter pattern in the weeks ahead.  Perhaps Alberto’s remnant moisture is only the beginning…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel-from-the-recent-dry-regime/