Category Archives: European Model

Weekend Threat: Subtle Differences Make All The Difference…

We wanted to take a quick opportunity to discuss the weekend snow threat. While certainly on the table, it’s far from etched in stone. We note the models doing their usual “herky-jerky” moves 5-6 days out. At the end of the day, there’s a notable threat present, but we prefer to watch things unfold over the next few days before beginning to get too excited.

Subtle differences between the European model (image 1) and GFS (image 2) are seen in the handling of the 500mb pattern. The GFS is quicker to phase the upper energy and leads to a more robust system.  The European isn’t nearly as excited and instead dampens the energy coming east.  These seemingly minute differences can make all the difference when it comes to the sensible weather that may (or may not) impact your weekend plans.  If the European is correct, this is a rather non-event, locally.  However, should the GFS idea be correct, this will be a widespread Ohio Valley snow event that’ll require gassing up the snow plows…

The European model weakens the energy coming east needed to fuel a more substantial storm Friday into Saturday.
The GFS model bundles the upper energy and phases things- leading to a more significant wintry threat by Saturday.

Stay tuned as we’re still a few days out from having confidence needed to begin to sound the alarm. 😉

In the longer range, tonight’s data continues to head in the direction where winter will make up for lost time to close January and head on into February.  Delayed, but not denied…

European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, snow, Weather Classroom, Winter Storm

Pre-Christmas Weather Rambles…

I. While we certainly aren’t talking about significant weather events between now and Christmas Day, there will be a couple of impulses of upper level energy that may be just strong enough to produce snow showers and flurries at times.  We’re tracking (2) weak disturbances that stand a chance to get a couple of snow showers going Sunday evening and again Christmas Day.  The one on Christmas, itself, will be a bit stronger and may have a shield of more organized precipitation- likely that would start as wet snow before transitioning to rain before ending.

II. A much stronger storm system will wrap up to our northwest Wednesday night and Thursday.  We’ll notice an increasingly strong southerly breeze during this time period and rain will be on the increase as we progress through the day Thursday.  The trade-off?  Highs between 55° and 60° to close the week- though those temperatures may actually come Thursday evening before cooler air begins to slip in here during the day Friday.

As things stand now, both the GFS and European models, courtesy of Weathermodels.com, aren’t overly excited on rainfall amounts with this storm system, but I think they’ll trend wetter as time goes on.  We’ll continue to forecast amounts between 0.50″ and 1″.

III. All attention is squarely focused on a significant pattern change that takes shape as we head into the new year.  As mentioned in previous posts and discussions, the transition is likely to be a stormy one, but it’s far too early to talk precipitation types.  A combination of ingredients appears to be aligning to create a colder than normal (and potentially significantly so) pattern at the traditionally coldest time of year (mid-Jan).

In the more immediate term, we note the latest GEFS showcases a classic “horse shoe” block that will favor a wintry regime across the east to open the new year- thanks to Tropicaltidbits.com.

Arctic Cold, Christmas/ Thanksgiving, Ensemble Discussion, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, High-latitude Blocking, Long Range Discussion, Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Mid-December “Relaxation” Coming, But Winter Set To Roar Back With Authority Around The Holidays And Beyond…

Since this cold pattern took over in mid-October, I thought we’d see a “pull back” of sorts develop at some point.  Initially, the thinking was this would come in the middle parts of November, but that never developed.  Fast forward to where we are now, and it still appears a relaxation of the cold will develop- albeit much later than originally anticipated.  Please understand this doesn’t mean there can’t be cold days or, for that matter, even wintry “mischief.”  What it does mean is that the sustained significantly colder than normal air should reverse to seasonable levels and above normal conditions for a time around mid-month.

With that said, we’re as fired up as we’ve been for what we continue to think will be a very cold winter and, at times, snowy- as outlined in our winter outlook published last month.  In fact, the latest European Weeklies in this evening suggest winter roars back with authority around Christmastime, continuing deep into the New Year period.  Analog data and other key components (some of which were outlined in our winter outlook) would back up this idea.  Taken verbatim, the new European Weeklies like the idea of “coast-to-coast” cold developing for the holidays this year.  While I’m not ready to go that far just yet (still think the mean ridge will set-up shop in a manner to keep the northwest balmy, compared to normal), I do like the idea of a cold and active period returning late December for our part of the country…

Anyone else dreaming of a white Christmas (for the 2nd year in a row)?!

Christmas/ Thanksgiving, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Long Range Discussion, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Winter Outlook