Category: El Niño

Brief Break In The Pattern Gives Us Time To Look Ahead To The Remainder Of Met. Summer; Open To Autumn…

Updated 07.04.23 @ 6:14a

There’s something about the 4th of July that signals a shift within. It’s been this way for me since back in the high school days. Back then, the following week meant 2-a-days were beginning as a new football season was only a few weeks away. Fast forward to today, and I understand some of the big box retailers are preparing to display their fall and Halloween decor over the next couple weeks. SEC Media Days, the unofficial “official” start of the college football season gets rolling in Nashville on July 17th. Heck, before you know it, we’ll be producing our annual winter outlook.

Okay, back to present.

As the Nino continues to mature, we believe the rest of meteorological summer (through end of month August) continues to keep any significant or long lasting heat away from our neck of the woods. In addition, the dry stretch that typically develops at some point each and every summer is also behind us. Simply put, the next 6-7 weeks appear to run near normal from a temperature standpoint and slightly above to above normal from a precipitation perspective. Overall, I prefer to lean on the latest JMA monthly product.

July

Temperatures

Precipitation

August

Temperatures

Precipitation

As we look ahead to autumn, the early call is for a warmer than normal open to fall as a whole. Certainly fits the bill with recent autumn trends…

We note both the JMA and latest European Seasonal product going towards this mild look. More on the entire fall seasonal outlook over the next few weeks.

From our family to yours, we’re wishing you a blessed Independence Day! A fresh batch of storms arrive later Wednesday and our short-term update later tonight will handle the latest look there.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/brief-break-in-the-pattern-gives-us-time-to-look-ahead-to-the-remainder-of-met-summer-open-to-autumn/

VIDEO: Dramatic Change In The Overall Pattern To Wet; Active Holiday Weekend With Multiple Rounds Of Storms…

Updated 06.30.23 @ 7:40a

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VIDEO: Evening Storms For Some; Remainder Of Met. Summer Pattern Discussion…

Updated 06.15.23 @ 7:58a

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Dry Times Likely Become A Bigger Issue Before The Pattern Shifts…

Updated 05.19.23 @ 8:58a

The latest drought monitor (from May 18th) only shows portions of far western Indiana in “abnormally dry,” or D0 intensity.

Rainfall over the past (30) days has been hit and miss- not what one ideally wants to see this time of year as feedback can take hold quickly.

Officially, IND is running 3.4″ below normal in the rainfall department since April 1st.

A cold front will press through central Indiana this evening and offer up a smattering of showers and thunderstorms. While some lucky folks will pick up a half inch, or so, most will likely only accumulate rainfall totals between 0.10″ and 0.30″.

After this, dry times return through the weekend and next week, as a whole. In fact, the pattern long term looks significantly drier than normal through the month of June.

Without question, we’ll see the drought monitor begin to include more of the Ohio Valley in abnormally dry or “droughty” conditions in the coming weeks.

As the Nino matures, the middle and back half of summer should take on an increasingly wet look, but that’s not before 4-6 weeks of the current dry pattern getting even drier…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/dry-times-likely-become-a-bigger-issue-before-the-pattern-shifts/

LR Update: Walking Through The Next Few Weeks And An El Nino Update…

Updated 05.11.23 @ 9:45p

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