Updated 06.15.23 @ 7:58a
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Category: El Niño
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-evening-storms-for-some-remainder-of-met-summer-pattern-discussion/
May 19
Dry Times Likely Become A Bigger Issue Before The Pattern Shifts…
Updated 05.19.23 @ 8:58a
The latest drought monitor (from May 18th) only shows portions of far western Indiana in “abnormally dry,” or D0 intensity.
Rainfall over the past (30) days has been hit and miss- not what one ideally wants to see this time of year as feedback can take hold quickly.
Officially, IND is running 3.4″ below normal in the rainfall department since April 1st.
A cold front will press through central Indiana this evening and offer up a smattering of showers and thunderstorms. While some lucky folks will pick up a half inch, or so, most will likely only accumulate rainfall totals between 0.10″ and 0.30″.
After this, dry times return through the weekend and next week, as a whole. In fact, the pattern long term looks significantly drier than normal through the month of June.
Without question, we’ll see the drought monitor begin to include more of the Ohio Valley in abnormally dry or “droughty” conditions in the coming weeks.
As the Nino matures, the middle and back half of summer should take on an increasingly wet look, but that’s not before 4-6 weeks of the current dry pattern getting even drier…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/dry-times-likely-become-a-bigger-issue-before-the-pattern-shifts/
May 11
LR Update: Walking Through The Next Few Weeks And An El Nino Update…
Updated 05.11.23 @ 9:45p
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Apr 28
LR Update: May Pattern Evolution And Early Look At June…
Updated 04.28.23 @ 2:33a
While we remain bullish on a warmer response in the Week 2-3 time period, the longevity of any sort of “warm-up” is the point we’re trying to drive home. The MJO is still forecast to amplify into Phase 6 just past May 10th. As a result, our stubborn call remains on modeling being “forced” to correct warmer during this time.
As it is, we’re in a camp of our own with that call based off Thursday’s long range update. Note both the new European Weeklies and JMA Weeklies show the eastern trough remaining.
At the very least, it’s an interesting test case on our hands that we’ll be able to see play out in real time.
Even if we do see the Week 2-3 warm up, it’s likely to be short-lived as the MJO continues to rumble into cooler phases and the teleconnections (namely the EPO and NAO) tag-team neutral to negative through the bulk of May and into early June.
The end result after any sort of warmer response during the aforementioned time period is likely for at least a slightly cooler pattern to return compared to average. The relatively drier pattern will also trend wetter late May into early June.
At the end of the day, we still see a warmer surge taking hold, locally, between Weeks 2-3. However cooler and wetter conditions likely settle back in as we navigate the back half of May and into early June at least.
Is this a hint of the times as summer matures? Not out of the question this year as we flip the page to Nino conditions…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/lr-update-may-pattern-evolution-and-early-look-at-june/
Feb 10
VIDEO: Tracking 2 Storms Next Week; Summer ’23 Pattern Ideas…
Updated 02.10.23 @ 7:55a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-tracking-2-storms-next-week-summer-23-pattern-ideas/