Category: ClientBrief

Nov 10

Client Brief: Weather Goes Downhill Quickly Monday PM…

Type: Impactful wintry weather

What: Accumulating snow

When: Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning

Temperatures: Falling from the lower 40s around daybreak into the lower 20s by late evening.

Wind: North shifting to the northwest and gusting 20-25 MPH.

Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal

Pavement Impacts: Salting and plowing will be required

We type this with a quiet and pleasant early-November evening underway, but major changes await on deck. An arctic cold front will continue to press south through the state during the overnight period. Monday will dawn with overcast and dry conditions across immediate central Indiana, along with a stiff northerly breeze. That said, a cold rain will develop by mid morning and this will transition to wet snow around or just after lunch north of the city and early afternoon for the city, itself. Some embedded banding is possible within the snow shield Monday afternoon into the evening hours, thanks to a strengthening surface wave moving northeast along the arctic front. This will create the potential of heavier snow rates around the evening rush. Combine this with the fact temperatures will be falling into the 20s around this time frame and it’s a safe bet that weather will create a high impact on evening travel Monday all throughout central Indiana. The “system” snow will diminish off to the southeast late evening, but by this time, lake effect streamers are expected to pivot across central Indiana before eventually setting up shop across east-central and northeast Indiana Tuesday morning. Record cold will follow the fresh snow with a low Tuesday and Wednesday mornings between 10° to 15°.

Confidence: High

Next Update: Monday morning

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/11/10/client-brief-weather-goes-downhill-quickly-monday-pm/

Nov 09

Client Brief: First Accumulating Snow Of The Season…

Type: Impactful wintry weather

What: Accumulating snow

When: Monday

Temperatures: Falling from the upper 30s into the 10s by Tuesday morning.

Wind: North shifting to the northwest with gusts of 20-25 MPH.

Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal

The first accumulating snow of the season (for at least most of central Indiana) awaits Monday. While this won’t be any sort of blockbuster winter storm, it’ll likely have some impacts due to the first accumulation of the season, along with plummeting temperatures Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Monday will start dry with cloudy skies and a stiff north breeze, but snow will overspread central Indiana late morning into the early afternoon. A burst of steady to moderate snow is possible into the early afternoon hours. Temperatures will crash from the upper 30s just after daybreak into the upper 20s by the evening rush. Snow will begin to diminish from north to south around 5p to 6p. Please note, the above “1st call” doesn’t include the additional lake effect snow that will follow for the northern IN snow belt. While heavy snow isn’t expected, local slick spots will develop on untreated surfaces as temperatures continue to plummet into the 10s during the overnight period.

Confidence: Medium

Next Update: Late Saturday night or early Sunday morning

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/11/09/client-brief-first-accumulating-snow-of-the-season/

Oct 25

Client Brief: Updates On The Latest With Saturday’s Rain/ Wind…

Type: Heavy Rain & Strong Wind

Rain will lift north across the Ohio Valley overnight into Saturday.

What: Heavy rain and gusty winds

When: Saturday

Rain Amounts: 1″ to 2″

Wind: Variable 15-30 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH

It continues to look like a significant rain and wind maker wants to take up residence across the Ohio Valley this weekend. Focusing more specific to central Indiana, Saturday is the day for the biggest impacts. A rather expansive rain shield will lift north across the state late tonight into Saturday morning, becoming heavy at times during the day Saturday. The other item to focus on is the wind. East winds will become strong and gusty during the day Saturday before shifting to the southeast, south, and eventually southwest as the area of low pressure moves very close to overhead. During this timeframe, winds may gust to 45 MPH Saturday night. Once the area of low pressure moves to our northeast, winds will shift around to the west Sunday morning and diminish. Overall, storm total rainfall amounts across central Indiana continue to look like they will check-in between 1″ and 1.5″ for most with a few locally heavier reports. The last of the rain will exit to the northeast before sunrise Sunday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/25/client-brief-updates-on-the-latest-with-saturdays-rain-wind/

Oct 24

Client Brief: Heavy Rain Saturday

Type: Heavy Rain

What: Heavy rain and gusty winds

When: Overnight Friday through Saturday

Rain Amounts: 1″ to 3″- see below on current thoughts

Wind: East 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH+

After a fairly quiet close to the work week, a vigorous upper low will track east out of OK, across northern AR, and northeast into the Ohio Valley. In response, a surface low will develop across the MS Valley Friday night, moving northeast into OH by Saturday night. The end result will be close to a (24) hr period of steady rain, at times heavy, across all of central Indiana. Additionally, we anticipate a period of gusty easterly winds Saturday morning into the afternoon hours. Widespread 1″ to 1.5″ rainfall can be expected with locally heavier amounts across central Indiana. Meanwhile, southern and southeastern Indiana can expect rainfall totals of 2″ to 3″ with locally heavier amounts. Rainfall coverage and intensity will diminish from southwest to northeast Saturday night.

Heavy rain will overspread central Indiana Saturday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/24/client-brief-heavy-rain-saturday/

Oct 21

Wet, Windy, And Stormy Day Ahead…

A cold front will push across the Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the front, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected. A few of these storms may become strong to severe with damaging straight line winds being the biggest concern.

The Storm Prediction Center now includes portions of central Indiana in a ‘marginal’ risk for severe weather.

We expect a couple of rounds of storms today- one mid to late morning followed by another this evening directly ahead of the cold front.

Forecast radar 10a
Forecast radar 7p

Rain will end from west to east during the evening as the cold front sweeps across the state. Before that, some area rain gauges may accumulate around an inch of rain today (a few locally heavier totals possible).

The other headline today will be strong and gusty winds (originally out of the southwest before shifting to west this evening). Even outside of thunderstorms, gusts in excess of 40 MPH can be expected.

Drier and cooler air will arrive Tuesday through Thursday before another chilly, wet weather maker blows into town Thursday evening into Friday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/21/wet-windy-and-stormy-day-ahead/

Jun 14

Fall-Like Conditions Set To Be Replaced By Periods Of Heavy Rain…

Temperatures are in the 40s area-wide this morning across central Indiana. Speaking of the 40s, they extend all the way south into the north Georgia mountains as we start our Friday. (Hard to believe for mid June). Widespread below normal temperatures continue to dominate the eastern portion of the country.

High pressure will remain in control of our weather today and help feature dry conditions with plentiful sunshine and pleasant temperatures. Highs today will top out in the middle 70s after the crisp start to the day.

Unfortunately, the cool, dry conditions will quickly give way to an increasingly moist airmass overnight into Saturday morning and rain will follow. The reason? We’ll be on the backside of the area of high pressure with a southwest flow aloft helping transport moisture northeast into the Ohio Valley. At the same time, a series of warm fronts will pass over the weekend, featuring periods of more concentrated storms and associated heavy rainfall. Finally, a cold front will push south Sunday into Monday before stalling out just south of our area Tuesday.

While this may provide a briefly drier period Tuesday, we’ll have to contend with periods of heavy rain and storms before hand. More specific around timing, we think rain may begin as early as 11p to midnight this evening before becoming more widespread and heavier Saturday morning. We’d suggest having a Plan B for outdoor activities this weekend as more time than not, it’ll likely be raining across central Indiana.

As mentioned earlier, we’ll replace the cool, dry air mass with more of a tropical feel this weekend and at times precipitable water values (PWATs) will approach 2″. This raises our confidence in the potential and likelihood of heavy rainfall.

Widespread 1″ to 2″ rainfall totals can be expected across central Indiana this weekend, with locally heavier amounts. After a briefly drier period Tuesday, rain will return by the middle of next week. Unfortunately, widespread 7-day totals (ending Thursday night) will likely be in the 2.5″ to 3.5″ range across central Indiana…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/14/fall-like-conditions-set-to-be-replaced-by-periods-of-heavy-rain/

May 31

Gusty Storms Blow Into Town Saturday PM…

The Storm Prediction Center has pulled the “Slight” Risk area more into Indiana with their most recent update for Saturday and we believe this may encompass more of the immediate area with subsequent updates.

The biggest concern has to do with straight line wind potential with one, or multiple lines of storms that will rumble through the state Saturday afternoon and evening.

The day will dawn bright and sunny with pleasant temperatures, but as the morning gives way to afternoon, conditions will destabilize and we’ll have our eyes focused to the northwest for thunderstorm initiation early afternoon across northern Indiana and Illinois. We then anticipate these individual storms to morph into a couple of lines of storms and push south into central Indiana during the mid and late afternoon/ early evening hours.

If you have outdoor plans tomorrow, please plan to have a means of receiving the latest information around potential severe thunderstorm watch/ warning information that may be required.

The 2nd half of the weekend will include fantastic weather (drier, less humid, and cooler) that will carry us into the first couple of days of the work week!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/05/31/gusty-storms-blow-into-town-saturday-pm/

Mar 13

Client Brief: Thursday Severe Weather Update…

Type: Damaging Winds And Severe Potential

What: All modes of severe weather, including tornadic potential. Damaging wind gusts.

When: Damaging wind gusts develop late tonight into the predawn Thursday. Severe storms are most likely Thursday afternoon into early Thursday evening.

Wind: SW 45-55 MPH with gusts of 60 MPH+

Winds will begin to gust to potentially damaging levels during the overnight tonight.

A couple of rounds of thunderstorms will impact central Indiana during the overnight and again Thursday afternoon and evening. It’s the second round tomorrow afternoon that has us most concerned for the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms. A lot of this hinges on just how much clearing takes place from the morning round of showers and embedded thunder. Should we clear things out in significant fashion, and introduce some sunshine, the threat of severe weather tomorrow afternoon will grow significantly. Conversely, should we hold onto a mostly overcast sky, this will limit the overall severity of afternoon storms. The sun would help destabilize things in rather rapid fashion and given some of the other parameters in place, would lead to all modes of severe weather with storms that develop tomorrow afternoon- including large hail and tornadoes.

Additionally, due to the sheer strength of the storm system, damaging winds are still in play tomorrow (even outside of thunderstorms). In fact, winds will begin to gust upwards of 50 MPH+ during the overnight period tonight. If you haven’t already, please take the time now to tie down or secure loose objects to keep them from being blown about in the wind.

Conditions will begin to improve as early as tomorrow night, although we’ll turn much colder. Air will grow cold enough to promote “wrap around” moisture to fall in the form of snow by Friday afternoon.

Threat of strong to severe storms will be greatest Thursday afternoon into the early evening hours.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/13/client-brief-thursday-severe-weather-update/

Mar 07

Client Brief: Snowfall Update…

Type: Accumulating Snow

What: Accumulating snow

When: Thursday afternoon into Friday morning

Temperatures: Upper 20s to near 30

Wind: E 5-10 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Non-existent to minimal


Computer guidance has continued to shift the swath of 1″ to 3″ of snow south over the past 12 hours. Accordingly, we’ve shifted things south about 3-4 county rows with our updated snowfall forecast this evening. The steadiest snowfall will occur during the overnight hours into the predawn Friday. For places around Indianapolis and points north, this won’t be a significant event, however, if your travels take you south, roadways are expected to become slick and hazardous tonight into Friday morning. Improving conditions will develop by late morning into Friday afternoon as temperatures “warm” above the freezing mark. Highs tomorrow will top out in the upper 30s to lower 40s with significant melting expected by afternoon.

Confidence: High

(We’ll have our updated long range forecast online later tonight).

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/07/client-brief-snowfall-update/

Mar 06

Running the Gamut; Looking Ahead to April…

We’ll apologize in advance for the long-winded post tonight, but there’s a lot to cover. Not only do we have the accumulating snow on deck, a couple of strong storm systems this weekend into the middle of next week, but the long range pattern is set to turn cold (again) after a mid-month respite. We also want to look ahead to our early thoughts towards April…

Let’s take things one at a time:

Thursday-Friday Snow

While we don’t have major changes to our ongoing snowfall forecast, we have “sagged” the swath of 1″ to 3″ snow south just a hair given the latest computer model guidance. Steadiest snow should fall Thursday night into the predawn hours Friday. We’d anticipate a slick Friday morning commute through the heart of central Indiana.

Snow should exit off to the southeast around, or just before, lunchtime Friday. As always, your ground-truth reports are welcome (feel free to send to us on Twitter or via e-mail).

Warmer Side Of Things

The ‘mean’ trough position will shift to the west (temporarily) and lead to an overall milder time of things for the mid-month stretch. Unfortunately, the milder air will come with a wetter pattern.

This milder, wetter pattern will be highlighted by (2) storms:

I. Saturday, 3/10

II. Tuesday-Wednesday, 3/12-3/13

Both storm systems will be capable of producing locally heavy downpours and embedded thunder. Greatest chances of severe will remain south of central IN with this weekend’s storm, but may be further north next week. We’ll keep a close eye on things and issue Client Briefs if need be as we get closer.

A combination of the GFS and European computer models print-out rainfall totals between 1″ and 2″ over the upcoming 10-days and this seems reasonable given the fact both storm systems will be able to tap into Gulf of Mexico moisture.

From a temperature perspective, the brutal cold will come to an end behind our late week snowmaker. While “transient” chill will follow both of the upcoming storm systems, we’re heading into a much milder pattern, overall, through the mid-March stretch. Mildest air will come directly in front of the storm systems, highlighted by a couple of 60 deg. + days the middle of next week.

Positive PNA takes over

Unfortunately (for lovers of spring), the mid-month warm-up will be only a “tease” as we’re set to trend cooler, relative to normal, for the last 10 days of the month. The reason? A developing positive PNA.

To no surprise, we see the cooler pattern returning on the computer models:

Not only will we turn colder to close the month, but Thursday likely won’t be our last accumulating snow of the season…

Looking Towards April

Despite the late-March “set back” to a chilly time of things, we continue to think a more sustained “stick and hold” spring pattern looms around the corner. In fact, we agree with the latest CFSv2 delivering a warmer than normal pattern for April, as a whole, to the eastern portion of the country.

Note that as we go, the model is getting warmer for April with each passing day. As things stand now, we think the trough will pull back to the west with a more sustained ridge in place across the eastern portion of the country in April. With this, a wetter than average regime likely awaits, including an uptick in severe chances further north into the region.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/06/running-the-gamut-looking-ahead-to-april/

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