Category: ClientBrief

Feb 05

Client Brief: Conditions Deteriorate By Late Afternoon…

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather

A wintry mix of sleet and snow will arrive into central IN between 4p and 5p.

What: Accumulating snow, sleet, and freezing rain

When: This evening and Thursday morning

Temperatures: Upper 20s to around 30°

Wind: Northeast 10 to 20 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Light to moderate across northern Indiana

Pavement Impacts: Salting/ plowing also will be required in the “snow zone.”

A surface wave will move from the middle MS River Valley into the TN and lower Ohio Valley region tonight and Thursday morning. Eventually this system will push into the Mid-Atlantic states Friday.

After a mostly dry daytime, precipitation will become more widespread by late afternoon and early evening. More specifically, we anticipate a wintry mix of sleet and snow to move into Indianapolis and a greater chunk of central Indiana between 4p and 5p. Waves of moisture will continue to impact the region into tonight, but as warmer air aloft moves overhead, precipitation is expected to transition to a mixture of sleet and freezing rain during this time frame. Up to 2 tenths of an inch of glaze is possible across the I-70 corridor this evening. We recommend avoiding travel if possible tonight across central Indiana with icy spots expected to develop on area roadways. Across most of central Indiana, snow and sleet accumulation should remain less than 1″. Further north, precipitation will remain predominantly snow with 2″ to 4″ expected.

Colder air aloft will return Thursday allowing precipitation to transition back to light snow across central Indiana. As upper level support swings through the state, snow should become more widespread Thursday night into Friday morning with additional light accumulation possible.

Confidence: High

Next Update: This evening

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-conditions-deteriorate-by-late-afternoon/

Feb 03

Client Brief: Multiple Rounds Of Wintry Precipitation Expected Tuesday Night-Thursday Night…

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather

A wintry mix will begin to impact parts of central IN as early as Tuesday evening.

What: Potential of accumulating snow, sleet, and freezing rain

When: Multiple rounds:

I. Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning

II. Wednesday evening through Thursday evening

Temperatures: Upper 20s to lower 30s

Wind: Northeast 20 to 30 MPH and gusty Tuesday night, shifting to the north, northwest 5 to 15 MPH Wednesday night into Thursday.

Blowing/ Drifting: Non-existent

Pavement Impacts: Salting/ plowing also will likely be required in the “snow zone.”

A complex weather pattern will result in a multitude of precipitation types across the state in the Tuesday night through Thursday night time period. Here’s our early thinking where we think the various types of precipitation setup shop:

As we time things out, rain is expected to overspread most of the state Tuesday morning. Heaviest and most concentrated rainfall should occur along and south of the I-70 corridor. A downright balmy start to the day will trend significantly colder (especially around and after lunchtime). As cold air continues to ooze south, renewed precipitation is expected to break out Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, courtesy of a wave moving along the cold front. With colder air in place, this precipitation is expected to primarily fall in the form of sleet and freezing rain through the “heart” of central Indiana with snow across northern parts of the state. With temperatures falling below freezing Tuesday evening, slick spots on area roadways are anticipated to develop- even despite the recent warm weather of the past couple of days.

Most of the daytime should feature a relative “lull” in the precipitation with nearly steady temperatures across central and northern Indiana (around or just below freezing). The briefly quiet times will give way to another round of more widespread and heavier precipitation Wednesday evening, continuing into the day Thursday as a stronger wave of low pressure moves northeast from northern MS, along the Ohio River, and into eastern Ohio. Like what we’ll experience tomorrow evening, the precipitation forms will vary significantly based on your locale. We think another round of sleet (perhaps some freezing rain across south-central Indiana) will dominate across central Indiana, with primarily snow across northern Indiana. Within the highlighted “snow zone,” amounts of 3″ to 6″ certainly seem possible by the time all is said and done Thursday evening.

Confidence: Medium

Next Update: Tuesday morning

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-multiple-rounds-of-wintry-precipitation-expected-tuesday-night-thursday-night/

Jan 17

Client Brief: Wintry Mix Arrives This Evening; Slick Travel Expected Across A Portion Of The Region…

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather

A burst of snow will move into central Indiana between 5p and 7p.

What: Coating of snow and light glaze of ice

When: This evening into tonight

Temperatures: Upper 20s to around 30° before rising into the upper 30s after sunrise

Wind: Southeast tonight 20-30 MPH, shifting to the south Saturday morning and gusting to 40 MPH before shifting to the west behind the cold front Saturday evening.

Blowing/ Drifting: Non-existent

Pavement Impacts: Salting will be required today.

An area of low pressure will track across the central Plains today into the lower Great Lakes and into New England Saturday into Sunday. An associated cold front will sweep through the region Saturday PM resulting in a return of very cold air Saturday night into early next week.

The majority of the day will remain precipitation-free across the state with a lowering and thickening cloud deck by afternoon. As our attention shifts to late afternoon and evening, an initial burst of snow will make it’s way into west-central Indiana (around Terre Haute) before arriving into the city, itself, towards 6p to 7p. For a good chunk of central Indiana, this snow will transition rather quickly to a mix of sleet and freezing rain as evening gives way to nighttime. In and around Indianapolis and northern suburbs, expect a snow/ sleet accumulation of up to 1″ followed by a light glaze of ice. Further north, snow will hang on longer as the predominant precipitation type, resulting in accumulations of 2″ to 4″. If traveling this evening into tonight, icy roads are likely across central Indiana. Temperatures will warm above freezing prior to sunrise Saturday with significant improvement expected on area roadways. This will help precipitation transition to a cold rain Saturday morning before a cold front whips across the state and sends temperatures into a nose dive Saturday evening. Gusty winds will accompany this frontal passage (40 MPH gusts) and any leftover moisture will refreeze Saturday evening resulting in patchy black ice issues on untreated surfaces.

Confidence: High

Next Update: Tonight

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-wintry-mix-arrives-this-evening-slick-travel-expected-across-a-portion-of-the-region/

Jan 10

Client Brief: Heavy Rain Increases Flood Potential Into The Weekend; Strong Wind Also A Concern…

Type: Heavy Rain & Strong Winds

What: Localized flood potential 

When: Friday and Saturday

Rain Amounts: 2.5″ to 3.5″ (localized heavier totals)

Wind: Variable 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH+ Saturday

Periods of moderate to heavy rain developed during the overnight and continue as we type this client brief this morning. Rain will continue for a good portion of today into tonight (locally heavy at times) before we likely go through a break in the rain early Saturday morning. That lull in the action won’t last long as rain is quickly expected to return by late morning and continue through the afternoon, into the early evening hours. What will already be a windy day today (30-40 MPH gusts) will only grow worse Saturday with some 50 MPH gusts a good bet.

As the surface low moves to our northeast, a cold front will sweep through the state Saturday evening and shut off the rain. Cooler air will move in to close the weekend.

Modeled forecast rainfall totals by 8p Saturday

Confidence: High

Next Update: Friday evening

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-heavy-rain-increases-flood-concerns-into-the-weekend-strong-wind-also-a-concern/

Jan 08

Client Brief: Heavy Rain Arrives Friday Into Saturday…

Type: Heavy Rain

What: Localized flood potential

When: Friday into Saturday

Rain Amounts: 2.5″ to 3.5″ (localized heavier totals)

Wind: Variable 20-30 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH+

The National Weather Service has hoisted Flood Watches across central Indiana in advance of an approaching strong storm system that will present the greatest impacts, locally, in the Friday evening through Saturday morning time period.

Clouds will increase through the day tomorrow (after a sunny start) and light rain will likely follow by evening. Rain will increase in overall coverage and intensity and become heavy at times across central IN Friday morning. We may see a “lull” in the heavy rain Friday evening before widespread moderate to heavy rain returns overnight into Saturday. As things stand this evening, it appears as if the heaviest rainfall amounts will fall from Indianapolis and points west (and north) and the GFS forecast storm total rainfall amounts is our preferred solution this evening- including widespread 2.5″ to 3.5″ totals (locally heavier amounts possible) with this system. Localized flooding will likely result.

Precipitation will exit off to the northeast Saturday afternoon-evening and may end as a “touch” of wet snow across central Indiana (no significant impacts expected from a wintry precipitation standpoint). If traveling north, greater impacts from wintry precipitation can be expected across northern Indiana from a combination of sleet, freezing rain, and snow.

Confidence: High

Next Update: 7a Thursday

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-heavy-rain-arrives-friday-into-saturday/