Wind: Potential of straight line winds in excess of 60 MPH
Temperatures: Lower 70s falling into the 40s after midnight
Summary: While all is quiet on the radar as we type this, things will change quickly through the next hour, or so. We anticipate storms to initialize across the region around 6p and quickly intensify. Downstream radar and satellite trends pose a concerning look this afternoon, including several super cells and this activity is expected to expand into central IN through the evening. All modes of severe weather are possible, including large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Please heed all warnings and have your severe weather safety plan activated through the evening. Thankfully, we still anticipate rapidly improving conditions north to south towards 11p to midnight.
An area of low pressure continues to organize in northeastern MS this afternoon and will move northeast into the lower Ohio Valley before transferring energy off to a secondary (and eventually “primary”) low that will take control Sunday off the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast.
Rain will lift north into central Indiana through the late afternoon and evening, falling moderately at times tonight. As just enough cold air pours into the backside of the low, rain will transition to a wet snow after midnight. We note high resolution guidance is also becoming more “excited” about the potential of a narrow deformation band of precipitation that may setup shop across portions of central Indiana into northeastern parts of the state Sunday morning. If this does, indeed, take place, a wet “thump” of snow to the tune of 1″ to 2″ can be expected by 9a Sunday. That said, even hours away from this event, “bust potential” is still much higher than normal. Should we not realize the narrow band of heavier precipitation rates, it’ll be difficult if not impossible to get the column to cool enough to generate a band of accumulating snow.
All in all, still a far cry from anything significant, but this could surprise a few folks Sunday morning all the same. Most, if not all of this wet snow will be confined to grassy and elevated surfaces, but there could also be a few slick spots early Sunday morning during periods of heavier snowfall rates.
Speaking of Sunday, we turn quite blustery with northwesterly winds gusting upwards of 30+ MPH and highs in the middle 30s. Dry conditions will return after the early morning snow departs.
Saturday will once again dawn on a gloomy note, with cloudy skies, areas of dense fog, and drizzle, but we’re not looking at measurable rainfall across central Indiana until we…
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A prolonged period of strong, gusty, and potentially damaging winds will develop Friday into Saturday.
Expected maximum wind gusts
What: Rain changing to snow; prolonged period of strong winds, and bitter cold
When: Friday, 1/12/24 and Saturday, 1/13/24
Wind: Variable 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH
Temperatures: Middle 40s Friday falling below freezing Friday night and below zero by Sunday morning.
Pavement Impacts: Salting will be required Friday night through the weekend.
Summary: A rapidly deepening area of low pressure will track through central Indiana Friday. What will likely be a SLP in the low 990s (millibars) Friday morning is liable to be in the low 970mb range by Friday night in southern Michigan. This will undoubtedly lead to a “big blow” across all of the region as we close out the work week and head into the weekend and that’s where we want to start with the headlines. A prolonged period of 20-30 MPH winds with gusts close to 50 MPH can be expected during this time frame.
As far as precipitation goes, rain is forecast to move into central Indiana Friday morning, falling heavy at times. If you have travel plans up north across northern Indiana, more in the way of wet snow is forecast during this time period. We’re not expecting to transition to snow until after sunset Friday (from west to east) as colder air pours in on the backside of the strengthening low. Snow showers will continue to fall into Saturday morning and with the strong and gusty northwest winds in place, lowered visibility and some slick spots can be expected across the region. Only light snow amounts are forecast, locally, to the tune of 0.50″ to 1.50″, but good luck measuring that in all of the wind. Scattered snow showers (arctic haze) will continue into Sunday as brutal arctic air oozes into the region.
Type: Flooding and Severe Weather; North-Central IN Wet Snow
What: Heavy rain and severe weather; north-central Indiana heavy wet snow
When: Friday, 3/3/23
Wind: Variable 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH
Summary: A deepening area of low pressure will track into the central Ohio Valley as we close the work week. This will lead to an expanding area of heavy precipitation through the overnight and into Friday morning. Precipitation will fall in the form of heavy rain across central portions of the region, including the Indianapolis area, along with a flood threat. Further north, heavy wet snow will develop across northern IN, into the greater CHI area and into central MI. Note: Early 00z guidance is shifting this area of low pressure further southeast which puts more of north-central parts of the state in play for wet snow accumulation Friday afternoon. We’ll continue to monitor overnight trends but the possibility is there that the rain-snow line will have to shift south compared to what most of the data has been showing the past couple of days. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2”+ can be expected into central IN along with non-thunderstorm gusts of 50+ MPH.
We bracket the 1p to 4p window for the threat of severe storms. This risk lies from Indianapolis proper and points south. We anticipate a line of storms to “bow” out, leading to an elevated damaging wind threat across southern IN during this time period but we also note the potential of a couple of quick spin-up tornadoes within this line of storms, as well. It’ll be important to have a means of getting any and all warnings Friday. Keep tuned to local media or have a way to receive the latest National Weather Service updates. All of the “action,” including the heavy rain threat is expected to wind down Friday evening, including much calmer and quieter conditions returning Friday night.
We’ll be back with a fresh video discussion no later than 7:30a Friday.
