Category Archives: ClientBrief

Client Brief: Dangerous Cold & Blizzard Conditions Arrive Thursday Night Into Friday…

Updated 12.21.22 @ 1:31p

Type: Severe Winter Weather

What: Heavy snow, blizzard conditions, dangerously cold temperatures

When: Thursday PM through Christmas Eve

Temperatures: Falling from the upper 30s (Thursday afternoon) to 0° to 10° below zero (Friday morning).

Wind: WSW 15-25 MPH, increasing to 25-40 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Severe

Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required throughout the region.

Summary: Precipitation is anticipated to overspread central IN Thursday morning in the form of a light cold rain. Light rain will continue into the early afternoon hours with temperatures ranging anywhere from the mid to upper 30s. The arctic front will arrive into the city, itself around 4p to 5p and this is when we expect rain to quickly change to snow. As this takes place, surface low pressure is expected to ride northeast from southwest IN into northwester/ north-central Ohio, allowing a blossoming area of more widespread, heavier snow to fall across the region Thursday evening, continuing through the overnight period. To make matters more hazardous, temperatures will fall from the aforementioned mid-upper 30s early afternoon into the single digits by 9p to 10p. The rapid temperature fall will allow any/ all moisture to freeze and further complicate travel with the increasing snowfall rates.

Forecast models this afternoon are split between (2) camps: the weaker and more progressive NAM and European, and the more “revved up” GFS and Canadian guidance. With that said, we’ll lean towards the European/ NAM blend to build our snowfall forecast below (good luck measuring whatever falls ;-)), but will continue to keep a close eye on trends through the evening and tonight. Side note: We’ll have a more detailed video discussion posted this evening that will dive into the very latest data trends with our current storm, look ahead to another snow maker on deck early next week, a significant warm-up, and subsequent return of cold, wintry conditions. 

If all of this wasn’t enough, winds will increase in speed and turn gusty through the evening Thursday, continuing into and through the day on Friday, as well as Christmas Eve. Periodic gusts upwards of 40 to 50 MPH will lead to severe blowing and drifting snow, whiteout and blizzard conditions during this period. We strongly advise against traveling Thursday evening through Friday. “Wrap around” lighter snow and snow showers are expected to continue through the day Friday with temperatures struggling to make it much above the 0° mark. Severe blowing and drifting snow and blizzard conditions will continue Friday to combine with the dangerous cold.

The prolonged nature of such strong winds, combined with expected snowfall amounts will continue to lead to hazardous travel through Christmas Eve. Unfortunately, winds aren’t expected to diminish until Christmas morning. By this point, all eyes will be focused on the next snow maker due in here late Christmas night or early Monday in the form of a clipper system.

More on all of this later this evening in our updated video discussion.

Confidence: High

Next Update: By 7p Wednesday (video discussion)

No Comments Arctic Cold, Christmas/ Thanksgiving, ChristmasBlizzard22, Client, ClientBrief, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Snow, Rain, Severe Weather, Windy

Client Brief: Blizzard Conditions Develop Friday Into Christmas Eve…

Updated 12.19.22 @ 5:46p

Type: Severe Winter Weather

What: Heavy snow, blizzard conditions, dangerously cold temperatures

When: Thursday PM through Saturday

Temperatures: Falling from the lower 40s (Thursday afternoon) to 0° to 10° below zero (Friday morning).

Wind: WSW 15-25 MPH, increasing to 25-40 MPH with gusts to 55-60 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Severe

Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required throughout the region.

Summary: Normally, we wait another 24 hours closer to the onset of the storm before we initiate our official Client Briefs, but the combination of the intensity of this storm along with the timeframe when many folks will have travel plans, we wanted to get this product out earlier than normal. We strongly encourage having travel completed by Thursday evening.

In short, a severe winter storm continues to look like it’ll take aim on the region as we navigate the day Thursday. Rain is expected to develop during the day before mixing with and transitioning to snow Thursday night. Snow will become heavy at times Thursday night into the day Friday. Initially, this will be a heavy, wet snow, but as the arctic airmass engulfs the area, the “paste-like” snow will quickly transition to powder. Needless to say, the standard 10:1 measurements won’t work with this storm as the fluff factor kicks into high gear.

Unfortunately as this transition in snow type is taking place, winds will begin to increase. We anticipate major problems from severe blowing and drifting of snow by Friday, continuing through Christmas Eve. During the aforementioned time period, wind gusts in excess of 55 MPH will be possible. This will lead to impassable roadways across many areas, especially within the heavier snow zones below. Speaking of snow, we need another 24 – 36 hours before we can get more specific than included below. Areas across southern and eastern IN not currently within the “heavy snow zones” will still see several inches of accumulation and their own blowing/ drifting issues. Blizzard conditions can be expected across the entire area from a combination of the falling snow, snow already on the ground, and damaging wind gusts Friday into Christmas Eve. Drifts will be measured in feet, especially in the “open country.”

I’d like to encourage everyone to prepare for the bitterly cold airmass that will also grab headlines. Be thinking of ways to keep warm should you lose power. Unfortunately, with the expected wind, power outages will become an issue across the region. Please take the time now to inspect your winter storm safety kit and heed all products from the National Weather Service.

Confidence: High

Next Update: Tuesday morning (video discussion)

No Comments Arctic Cold, Blizzard, Blowing/ Drifting, ChristmasBlizzard22, Client, ClientBrief, Forecast Discussion, Heavy Snow, Severe Weather, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Windy

Client Brief: (2) Waves Of Wintry Precipitation Set To Impact Area…

Updated 02.23.22 @ 5:15p

Type: Impactful wintry weather

A light mixture of snow and freezing rain will overspread the region during the evening, continuing into the overnight hours.

What: Impactful wintry weather

When: Tonight and Thursday morning and Thursday afternoon through predawn Friday 

Temperatures: Middle 20s to lower 30s

Wind: East Northeast 10-20 MPH, shifting to the north late Thursday

Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal across n-central Indiana

Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required across n-central Indiana and points north. Salting required across southern and central Indiana.

Summary: (2) waves of moisture will stream over central Indiana between this evening and predawn Friday. The initial, lead wave of precipitation will feature a mixture of light snow, light sleet, and light freezing rain. “Light” is the key word, but area roadways will likely become slick through the evening and into tonight- including in and around Indianapolis-proper. In and around the I-70 corridor and points north, this precipitation is expected to primarily fall in the form of snow. Further south, a mixture of sleet and freezing rain is anticipated. While this will be light in nature, precipitation should be rather persistent, lasting up until, or just after, sunrise. By sunrise, areas in and around Indy and points north can expect between 0.50″ and 1.50″ of snow (should sleet mix in, amounts will be closer to the lighter end of the spectrum vs. if we stay mostly snow, amounts closer to 1.5″ can be expected). Further south, a light glaze (up to 0.1″) and light sleet is expected to be the predominant precipitation type with this initial wave of moisture.

We’ll then undergo a “lull” in the action mid morning into the early afternoon hours, but low pressure will be organizing off to our southwest and have eyes set on a northeast trek into the southern portion of the state Thursday evening. This will be when we anticipate the heavier precipitation to move across the region. Across southern IN, this should primarily fall in the form of a cold rain, but further north the same can’t be said: a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain is expected to redevelop Thursday afternoon and continue into the night before ending as light snow. Across n-central IN and points to the MI/ IL state line, all snow is anticipated.

Precipitation will diminish from southwest to northeast predawn Friday with high pressure regaining control of our weather to close out the work week (just a few light lingering snow showers are expected Friday). Please see our updated snow and ice forecast below that includes total amounts for both parts of this event.

Confidence: High

Next Update: 7:30a Thursday

No Comments ClientBrief, Forecast Discussion, Freezing Rain, Rain, Sleet, snow, Wintry Mix

Client Brief: Significant And Multifaceted Storm Impacts Region Thursday…

Updated 02.16.22 @ 8p

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather, Flooding, and Severe Storms

What: Impactful wintry weather; Localized flood threat; Severe storm potential downstate

When: Thursday

Temperatures: Lower 50s midnight Thursday crashing into the lower 20s by midnight Friday morning.

Wind: Variable 15-30 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal (due to heavy, wet nature of the snow) across northern Indiana; non-existent elsewhere

Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required

Summary: A strengthening area of low pressure will move across the state Thursday afternoon, dragging a cold front southeast. Heavy rain will be widespread across the state Thursday morning. As cold air presses southeast, the 1st round of precipitation will transition to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain across far northern Indiana (along and north of a line from Rensselaer up to South Bend) mid to late morning. A secondary area of precipitation will then be blossoming off to our southwest and push northeast into the state through the afternoon. Central Indiana and points south will continue to deal with rain, along with falling temperatures, while downstate (Bloomington over to Greensburg and points south) gears up for the potential of severe t-storms in the 3p to 6p window. Any severe storms that do develop will be capable of producing damaging straight line winds.

If traveling to or from LOU or other points south into KY, please have a way to get any warnings that may be issued Thursday afternoon and early evening.

Meanwhile, cold air will continue to settle southeast and lead to a transition from heavy rain to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain for northern Indy ‘burbs towards 3 or 4p, eventually making it into the city, itself, in time for the evening rush.

Before the transition to a wintry mix, widespread 1”-2” of rain with locally heavier amounts can be expected across central Indiana, including Indianapolis. Further north, heavy snow can be expected, including widespread 4”-8” amounts with locally heavier totals. I think the latest high resolution NAM is handling snowfall numbers quite well this evening and don’t see any reason to disagree with these numbers.

A dusting to coating of snow (less than half an inch) is possible into the city as the sleet and freezing rain mixture transitions to the white stuff prior to precipitation exiting the region Thursday night. As temperatures crash, a “flash freeze” is possible even into southern Indiana by Friday morning.

Confidence: High

Next Update: 7:30a Thursday


No Comments ClientBrief, Flooding, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Freezing Rain, Heavy Rain, Heavy Snow, Severe Weather, Sleet, T-storms, Windy, Wintry Mix

Client Brief: All Systems Go For Highly Impactful Winter Storm…

Updated 02.01.22 @ 7p

Type: Severe Winter Weather

Heavy snow will fall across central IN Thursday

What: Heavy mixed precipitation, heavy snow, & strong winds

When: Wednesday afternoon through predawn Friday

Temperatures: Mid 30s, falling into the upper 10s Thursday night

Wind: NNE 15 – 25 MPH (gusts up to 30 MPH Thursday)

Blowing/ Drifting: Significant to severe (especially on east-west roadways)

Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required

Summary: While we don’t have any significant changes to this morning’s video update, we continue to draw that much closer to “show time” with this winter storm. Conditions will deteriorate from northwest to southeast as we progress through the day tomorrow, but the “main show” for immediate central IN will come late tomorrow night and through the day Thursday. It’s during this time where snowfall rates will exceed 1″/ hour for a widespread portion of the region. Simply put, if you don’t have to travel, please don’t. The added concern also remains present of blowing and drifting issues that will likely develop during the day Thursday. This will be from a byproduct of an increasingly fluffy snow (anything that falls tomorrow will be of the wet, slushy nature), thanks to higher ratios, as the arctic air pours into the region. Add in a stiff north, northeast wind of 15-25 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH and you can easily see where the problems are likely to ensue. In particular, east-west roadways in the open country are likely to drift shut by late morning or afternoon Thursday. Snowfall coverage and intensity will finally begin to diminish from northwest to southeast Thursday night. By that point, it’ll be time to bring the heavy equipment out to engage in removal of the “BIG SNOW.” We still anticipate bitterly cold (5° to 15° below zero) temperatures to take up shop Saturday morning across the region.

Confidence: High

Next Update: 7a Wednesday

No Comments Arctic Cold, Blowing/ Drifting, Client, ClientBrief, Forecast Discussion, Heavy Snow, Winter Storm, Wintry Mix