Category: ClientBrief

Feb 16

Client Brief: Significant And Multifaceted Storm Impacts Region Thursday…

Updated 02.16.22 @ 8p

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather, Flooding, and Severe Storms

What: Impactful wintry weather; Localized flood threat; Severe storm potential downstate

When: Thursday

Temperatures: Lower 50s midnight Thursday crashing into the lower 20s by midnight Friday morning.

Wind: Variable 15-30 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal (due to heavy, wet nature of the snow) across northern Indiana; non-existent elsewhere

Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required

Summary: A strengthening area of low pressure will move across the state Thursday afternoon, dragging a cold front southeast. Heavy rain will be widespread across the state Thursday morning. As cold air presses southeast, the 1st round of precipitation will transition to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain across far northern Indiana (along and north of a line from Rensselaer up to South Bend) mid to late morning. A secondary area of precipitation will then be blossoming off to our southwest and push northeast into the state through the afternoon. Central Indiana and points south will continue to deal with rain, along with falling temperatures, while downstate (Bloomington over to Greensburg and points south) gears up for the potential of severe t-storms in the 3p to 6p window. Any severe storms that do develop will be capable of producing damaging straight line winds.

If traveling to or from LOU or other points south into KY, please have a way to get any warnings that may be issued Thursday afternoon and early evening.

Meanwhile, cold air will continue to settle southeast and lead to a transition from heavy rain to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain for northern Indy ‘burbs towards 3 or 4p, eventually making it into the city, itself, in time for the evening rush.

Before the transition to a wintry mix, widespread 1”-2” of rain with locally heavier amounts can be expected across central Indiana, including Indianapolis. Further north, heavy snow can be expected, including widespread 4”-8” amounts with locally heavier totals. I think the latest high resolution NAM is handling snowfall numbers quite well this evening and don’t see any reason to disagree with these numbers.

A dusting to coating of snow (less than half an inch) is possible into the city as the sleet and freezing rain mixture transitions to the white stuff prior to precipitation exiting the region Thursday night. As temperatures crash, a “flash freeze” is possible even into southern Indiana by Friday morning.

Confidence: High

Next Update: 7:30a Thursday


Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-significant-and-multifaceted-storm-impacts-region-thursday/

Feb 01

Client Brief: All Systems Go For Highly Impactful Winter Storm…

Updated 02.01.22 @ 7p

Type: Severe Winter Weather

Heavy snow will fall across central IN Thursday

What: Heavy mixed precipitation, heavy snow, & strong winds

When: Wednesday afternoon through predawn Friday

Temperatures: Mid 30s, falling into the upper 10s Thursday night

Wind: NNE 15 – 25 MPH (gusts up to 30 MPH Thursday)

Blowing/ Drifting: Significant to severe (especially on east-west roadways)

Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required

Summary: While we don’t have any significant changes to this morning’s video update, we continue to draw that much closer to “show time” with this winter storm. Conditions will deteriorate from northwest to southeast as we progress through the day tomorrow, but the “main show” for immediate central IN will come late tomorrow night and through the day Thursday. It’s during this time where snowfall rates will exceed 1″/ hour for a widespread portion of the region. Simply put, if you don’t have to travel, please don’t. The added concern also remains present of blowing and drifting issues that will likely develop during the day Thursday. This will be from a byproduct of an increasingly fluffy snow (anything that falls tomorrow will be of the wet, slushy nature), thanks to higher ratios, as the arctic air pours into the region. Add in a stiff north, northeast wind of 15-25 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH and you can easily see where the problems are likely to ensue. In particular, east-west roadways in the open country are likely to drift shut by late morning or afternoon Thursday. Snowfall coverage and intensity will finally begin to diminish from northwest to southeast Thursday night. By that point, it’ll be time to bring the heavy equipment out to engage in removal of the “BIG SNOW.” We still anticipate bitterly cold (5° to 15° below zero) temperatures to take up shop Saturday morning across the region.

Confidence: High

Next Update: 7a Wednesday

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-all-systems-go-for-highly-impactful-winter-storm/

Dec 10

Client Brief: Severe Weather Event Overnight-Predawn Saturday…

Updated 12.10.21 @ 7:29a

Type: Severe weather event

The Storm Prediction Center has expanded both the ‘Slight’ and ‘Enhanced” risk zones northeast with the Friday morning update.

What: Severe weather outbreak

When: 12a to 8a Saturday, 12.11.21

Severe Risks: Damaging straight line winds and tornadoes

Summary: A strengthening surface low pressure system will lift northeast out of the central Plains this morning into the Great Lakes region by Saturday morning. A strong cold front will trail the area of low pressure and press east across Indiana Saturday morning. Ahead of the front, unseasonably warm and humid air will be drawn north to encompass most of the state. We’ll really notice a surge in moisture levels as we progress through the afternoon and evening hours. Dew points will rise from the 40s now into the lower and middle 60s all the way north to include central Indiana during the overnight and predawn hours Saturday. While CAPE (convective available potential energy) will be in question, which is typical with late fall/ early winter severe set-ups, the concern here is that we’ll be able to, unfortunately, make up for that with the influx of moisture and abundant shear.

Showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder (nothing severe) will increase by evening across central portions of the state, but it’s not until we get closer to midnight that stronger storms should get triggered. The focal point of this particular severe weather episode will fall within the 12a to 8a range. Initially, we believe there will be the opportunity of discrete super cells ahead of what should become a rather robust squall line that will move across the state (west to east) between 6a and 8a Saturday. The potential is present for all modes of severe weather, but given the dynamics in play, we’re most concerned for the potential of damaging straight line winds and tornadoes. It’ll be important to ensure you have a means of getting the latest warnings that will likely be issued tonight (be sure to set those weather radios alerts to “on”). Add in the fact that this event will take place when most people are sleeping, coupled with the likelihood of storms racing off to the east and northeast, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to give your neighbors and loved ones a friendly heads up of the developing weather situation later tonight so they, too, can prepare.

5p forecast radar: Rain will increase late afternoon and early evening with the potential of a rumble of thunder.
2a forecast radar: Individual super cells may try and develop shortly after midnight across the state. Damaging winds and the potential of quick spin-up tornadoes are possible.
7a forecast radar: A squall line will press across the state early Saturday morning with the threat of damaging winds and embedded rotating storms capable of tornadoes.

Confidence:High

Next Update: Friday afternoon- video

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-severe-weather-event-overnight-predawn-saturday/

Jun 18

Client Brief: Severe Weather Event And Flash Flood Potential…

Updated 06.18.21 @ 5:37p

Type: Severe weather event

What: Severe weather event and flash flood threat

When: This afternoon through tonight

Severe Risks: Damaging wind, large hail, embedded tornado potential, flash flooding

Summary: A complex of thunderstorms to our north this morning will diminish. As a result, the cloud canopy engulfing much of the region this morning will give way to mostly sunny skies late morning and into the afternoon. Intense heat is expected this afternoon, courtesy of a southerly flow ahead of an approaching warm front and upper air disturbance. Highs will reach the lower to middle 90s this afternoon and heat indices will climb to between 100° and 105°. This heat, combined with a multitude of other ingredients: dew points into the 70s, convective available potential energy (CAPE) in excess of 4000 j/kg (suggestive of extreme instability), and steep low level lapse rates (rate of temperature change with height) all will play into what looks like a significant setup for a severe weather outbreak later this afternoon and tonight.

Initially, individual cells are likely to erupt (targeting mid to late afternoon) along an OFB (outflow boundary) across n-central Indiana. Damaging wind and large hail are the biggest concerns with these cells, but a tornado threat is also on the table in this highly unstable environment. Eventually the scattered, intense cells should congeal into more of a widespread storm complex by evening and impact most of central and southern parts of the state. Precipitable water values will be in excess of 2” and promote a flash flood risk, especially if thunderstorms back-build and train over the same communities. Should this be the case, localized rainfall amounts of 3”-4” will be a good bet. As we progress into the overnight hours, the storm complex and associated flood risk will shift downstate.

Confidence: HighN

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-severe-weather-event-and-flash-flood-potential/

Feb 17

Client Brief: Snow Builds In Overnight – Predawn Thursday…

Updated: 02.17.21 @ 4:54p

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather

What: Accumulating snow

When: 2a to 9p Thursday

Temperatures: 18° to 24°

Wind: N 10-20 MPH, shifting to the NW Thursday night

Blowing/ Drifting: Considerable  

Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required

Summary: Another round of snow will lift northeast into central Indiana during the overnight and predawn hours (likely arrives into Indianapolis between 1a and 2a). As like so many of these events in the past, this will be another cold storm, meaning we’re looking at another high ratio (15-20:1) event. The dry, powdery nature of the snow will be blown and drifted around by north to northwest winds of 10-20 MPH through the day. While heaviest snow bands should remain across southern and southeastern Indiana, I still expect the rather persistent nature of the snow tomorrow to add up to the tune of 1″ to 3″ for Indianapolis and surrounding areas. Travel will be impacted, including both the morning and evening rush hour. Eventually the snow will depart from southwest to northeast after dark, exiting Indianapolis by around 8p to 9p.

Skies will slowly clear up on Friday and lead to a dangerously cold night (similar to what we saw this morning) and Saturday morning.

Confidence: High

Next Update: Thursday morning

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-snow-builds-in-overnight-predawn-thursday/