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Category: AG Report
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-closing-out-june-and-heading-into-july/
Jun 11
Model Data Remains Consistent On A More Active Pattern Returning…
Today’s 12z model suite is in and it remains consistent on a more active weather pattern returning to the delight of many Hoosiers! A blend of the GFS and European 10-day rainfall numbers print out 2″ for Indianapolis. The GFS ensemble ‘mean’ (a blend of 21 individual members) agrees.
Best overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms should come in (3) waves over the upcoming 10-day period:
- Wednesday into Thursday
- Saturday into Sunday
- Middle parts of the following week
While we don’t see any sort of uniform type rains in the upcoming period, the “smattering” of storms should help most neighborhoods get in on the rainy “goods” at one time or another over the upcoming week and a half. Keep in mind, we’re in mid-June now and it’s mighty difficult to ask for anything much more than scattered storms this time of year on through late-summer…unless a tropical entity gets involved. That’s just the way this time of year is. With that said, localized torrential downpours are a very good bet from time to time, beginning as early as mid-week, as precipitable water values approach, or exceed, 2″ (about as moisture-rich as you can ask the air mass to get around these parts) into the upcoming weekend.
As I type this outside on the back porch this evening, I hear the sounds of sprinklers in full-force through the ‘hood. Thankfully, Mother Nature will help save on the water bill later this week. Longer-term, you’ll hear us use the word “transient” many times this summer when discussing the overall weather pattern. Thankfully that tends to result in a fairly busy time of things. Before you know it, college football season will be back (83 days until my beloved Auburn Tigers kick-off), those wetter autumn storms will return, and thoughts will begin to shift to winter (they may have already started here :-))- not that we’re trying to rush summer away or anything…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/model-data-remains-consistent-on-a-more-active-pattern-returning/
Jun 10
Developing Hot Pattern Doesn’t Last; Cooler And Wetter Times Loom…
Through the short-term, there are two words that will sum up Indiana’s weather: Dry and Hot. We’re entering a stretch where the overall weather pattern will promote an expanding hot dome in the coming days, and put many communities across the state solidly in position to break the 90° mark on multiple days.
Expanding upper ridge means hot times loom late weekend into early next week.
However, this increasingly hot and dry pattern will be a transient one. This morning’s European model shows the evolution to cooler and increasingly wet, unsettled times nicely as we progress into the 6-10 day period.
The GFS ensemble would also agree in the overall pattern shift back to cooler and unsettled conditions as early as mid-late next week.
The 10-day GEFS ‘mean’ is a beautiful sight as moisture returns.
Updated 7-day out later this afternoon! Enjoy a beautiful Saturday, friends!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/developing-hot-pattern-doesnt-last-cooler-and-wetter-times-loom/
Jun 01
JMA Weeklies: Cool Gives Way To More Seasonal Conditions…
The new JMA Weeklies are in and the highlights include:
- Unseasonably cool conditions Week 1
- Anomalously wet across the Southeast
- Warmer, more seasonal early-summer weather arrives
Week 1:
The pattern is dominated by an eastern trough and western ridge. Accordingly, cooler than average conditions will dominate the central and eastern portions of the country. Very wet conditions should dominate the southern and eastern tier of the country (heaviest rains should fall east and south of Indiana).
Week 2:
The pattern begins to “relax” a bit, locally, with warmer conditions set to develop. We note three areas of anomalously wet weather- west coast, northern Plains and Southeast.
Weeks 3-4
While the pattern doesn’t seem to promote any sort of significant heat or cool (relative to normal), this is certainly a warmer look, overall, to close the month than how we’re starting. This look would suggest warm, seasonal, summer conditions locally with average precipitation. Wet weather continues to dominate the pattern across the south and begins to emerge into the central.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/jma-weeklies-cool-gives-way-to-more-seasonal-conditions/
May 02
Unseasonably Chilly; Another Heavy Rain Maker Blows Into Town…
Clouds will lower and thicken Wednesday morning and give way to an expanding rain shield late morning into the early afternoon hours. Initially this rain won’t be heavy, but will begin to increase in overall coverage and intensity as we progress into the nighttime hours.
Forecast radar around lunchtime shows rain increasing across central IN.
Rain becomes heavy Wednesday night.
The culprit behind this new heavy rain maker is a deepening surface low pressure system that will slowly track from Arkansas (Wednesday night) northeast along the Ohio River (Thursday) and into Ohio (Friday). Not only will this spread heavy rain across central Indiana, but will also result in strong and gusty easterly winds Thursday into Friday, and unseasonably cold air. In fact, temperatures Friday will likely remain in the 40s across central IN with wind chills in the 30s. Add in that wind-driven rain and we have the makings for an UGLY day.
Periods of heavy rain will fall on the region Wednesday night into Friday and by the time all is said and done (Saturday night) widespread rainfall of 3″ is likely across most of central Indiana. Locally heavier totals will be possible where the most persistent heavy rain bands set-up shop.
We’ll begin to dry things out Saturday night into Sunday, but unseasonably chilly air will remain. Lows over the weekend into early next week will grow cold enough to allow patchy frost to develop in outlying communities. We think low to mid 30s will be common across the region Sunday and Monday mornings.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/unseasonably-chilly-another-heavy-rain-maker-blows-into-town/