Category: AG Report

Looking Ahead To Close March And Open April: Cold Set To Return?

Before we discuss some of what has our attention as we move through the next couple of weeks, check out this cool visible satellite image from this morning.  The snowpack shows up nicely.  It’s also neat to see the high resolution modeling understand where that snow pack is and the associated cooler forecast highs compared to areas south and north that didn’t see the heavy snow Saturday.

As we look ahead, a wet week is in store for the region.  Periods of widespread rain, heavy at times, will come at us in waves:

  • Monday evening-Tuesday
  • Thursday
  • Next weekend, including Easter

When totaled up, widespread 2″ totals can be expected, with locally heavier amounts.

After a brief relaxation in the unseasonably cold regime, well below average temperatures are expected to return as we move through early April.  It’ll feel more like winter than spring through the better part of the first half of the month.

It’s also too early to think about yesterday as the last snow of the season.  Given the early April look, it wouldn’t surprise us if an additional snow event or two came along…

(As a reminder, you can always catch our most up-to-date 7-day forecast in the top left of the homepage).

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VIDEO: Heavy Rain Moves In…

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Near Record Warmth & More Heavy Rain…

The big weather story Tuesday across central Indiana will be the near-record warmth.  Typically it’s not until mid-May that average high temperatures climb into the lower to middle 70s, but we’re going to get an early taste of May tomorrow afternoon. Several records are in jeopardy of falling across the Ohio Valley Tuesday.

Steadiest rains will fall across the northern third of the state Tuesday with scattered downpours through the morning and afternoon hours across central Indiana.

Forecast radar 12p Tuesday.

Heavier rain will overspread central Indiana late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the cold front settles south.

Forecast radar 4a Wednesday.

As the front continues to sink south, much colder air will quickly overspread the area.  By the rush hour, many neighborhoods north of Indianapolis will already be around freezing.  As moisture continues to stream northeast, areas of freezing rain will be possible on elevated and exposed surfaces Wednesday morning into the afternoon hours.  With the recent warm, wet conditions, we don’t expect significant travel issues across central Indiana.

After a quieter time of things most of Thursday, we’re tracking three additional waves of moisture Friday and through the weekend.  At times, rain will be heavy, and we’ll certainly have to be on guard for water rise and increasing flooding issues as the weekend arrives.

By the time all is set and done Monday morning, we forecast additional widespread 3.5″ to 5″ rainfall totals with locally heavier amounts.

 

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VIDEO: Heavy Rain This Week; Looking Ahead Towards March…

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Saturday Morning Rambles: Periods Of Heavy Rain Early Next Week…

I. A weak weather maker will help spread a mixture of light rain and snow across the state later today, particularly this afternoon and evening.  Precipitation amounts will remain light and insignificant, but serve as a nuisance as you go about your weekend plans.

II.  We’re hopeful for much needed sunshine Sunday as we’ll be in between storm systems, however any sun that we see won’t last long.

A rather ominous setup for heavy rain will take place Monday into Wednesday.  This will include a combination of ingredients as a strong southeast ridge will prevent much forward motion of a “wavy” front that will drape itself across the Ohio Valley region.  Additionally, the subtropical jet will transport moisture-rich air northward into the area (true Gulf of Mexico connection).

While this is an unseasonably warm pattern (we forecast highs of 50°, or above, 5 out of 7 of the upcoming days, and at least 2 60°+ days), it’s one that will likely result in periods of heavy rain not only next week, but in waves over the upcoming 10 days.

Widespread 10-day rainfall numbers of 3″ to 4″ will be likely in this setup, including locally heavier amounts of 5″ to 6″ in spots.  Certainly, if you live near waterways we suggest having a plan in place as it’s not a matter of if, but when flooding takes place in spots across the region with such a setup.

III. Longer-term, we still need to be wary of the potential of a colder pattern returning as we get into March.  That forecast deep negative arctic oscillation (AO) has to raise an eyebrow for the possibility of making up for lost time in the cold weather department before we can signal “all clear” on winter…

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