Category Archives: AG Report

Time To “Buck The Trend” On The Dry Summer?

Summer has been dry, thus far, for central Indiana.  With the last month of meteorological summer on the doorstep, will that continue?

Before we discuss further, let’s check-up on precipitation anomalies at IND (through July 28th).

  • June: finished the month 0.26″ below average
  • July: 2.69″ below average, month-to-date
  • (This comes after a May that featured a 3.63″ deficit).

We have discussed the upcoming shift to a wetter regime that will develop Sunday into the first half of next week.  A Saturday evening update continues to point towards increasing rain chances arriving as we rumble into Sunday evening.  As expected, this morning’s high resolution NAM was likely a bit too excited on the initial wave of moisture and has come around to a “more realistic” idea in our opinion.

Rain and embedded thunder will likely be rather widespread early Monday, especially across the southern half of the state.

Data continues to point towards the greatest coverage of rainfall arriving Monday night and Tuesday.  We still expect a widespread 1″ to 2″ rain for central Indiana before things begin to wind down mid to late week.  There will be locally heavier totals.

As we look ahead, we think the balance of the month of August will feature an upper ridge across the western portion of the country that will keep our immediate region in an active northwesterly flow aloft.  Perhaps the GEFS is seeing this best at the moment (important to note the model has been consistent with respect to run-to-run updates as of late).  This is a wet signal this time of year…

The model has support of a return to wetter times as noted from the latest JMA Weeklies, CFSv2, and European ensemble.

While the cool will relax as we rumble past the first couple days of the month (we’re in the “dog days” after all), I still think the worst of the heat is over for the summer and the headline for August will likely be a situation where we begin to make up for lost time in the precipitation department.  That upper ridge centered to our west in the means will likely result in a continuation of rather active times from a precipitation perspective through the month and our idea is that we finish August with above normal precipitation across central Indiana for the first time since April…

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Wednesday Evening Rambles…

I. High pressure will remain in control of our weather as we wrap up the work week providing dry conditions. Expect another day of low humidity Thursday before a tropical air mass returns.

II. Heat and humidity will return to oppressive levels this weekend. Highs will top out in the lower 90s Friday and will be the start of a few days of highs in the lower to middle 90s and lows in the lower 70s through the weekend. Heat indices will go north of 100° at times this weekend.

III. A more unsettled regime will develop as we rumble into Sunday and Monday with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances. As cooler air begins to fight into the heat and humidity, a few heavy storms and locally heavy rain will result early next week before the front passes Tuesday. Widespread 0.50″ to 1″ rainfall should be expected during this time with localized heavier totals.

IV. A secondary cold front will approach the following weekend with another push of more significant cool air, along with widespread rain and storm chances.

As a whole, the last 10 days, or so, of the month look to run cooler than average and the transition to cool will come with beneficial rainfall…

V. Looking even longer term, we continue to believe that after this weekend the worst of the summer heat will be behind us. That’s not to say additional hot days won’t resurface at times in August (it is August, after all), but the pattern, as a whole, doesn’t seem to support the duration of significant heat that the first half of July has offered.

Attention here is squarely on what the upcoming fall and winter will deal central Indiana…

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Looking Ahead…

With the first week of July in the books, we wanted to touch base on what we believe the remainder of the month has in store. In short, there’s no change to our ongoing idea of a transitional period July 10th through 20th followed by a more pronounced shift to cooler temperatures as we wrap up the month: roughly the 21st through 31st.

In some aspects, the transitional period has already begun- just a couple of days earlier than originally expected. Thankfully, the early month heat has subsided, giving way to a couple days of very refreshing conditions. After a slight rebound in humidity to open the work week, a cold front will slip through central Indiana Tuesday. This will offer up the potential of a thundershower followed by a return of the refreshing easterly flow we’re currently enjoying.

Our latest 7-day forecast reflects this slightly cooler air mass and the associated “pull back” in humidity over the midweek stretch.

Heat and humidity will then build again during the late week period ahead of an approaching cold front that will likely offer up more in the way of scattered to numerous storms next weekend.  Note the “ups and downs” over the upcoming 7-10 day period.  While sustained heat isn’t expected, there will be a few hot days thrown in the mix for good measure as the overall pattern works through its’ transition.

After the upcoming 10-day stretch, we notice the data becoming more aligned in a manner that will pull the worst of the heat, relative to average, west and put the Mid West and Ohio Valley in a position to turn cooler with more authority, as well as more active to close the month.  We have to give a hat tip of the cap to the JMA Weeklies for first seeing this a couple of weeks back, and while we weren’t ready to jump on the idea of a sustained trough setting up over the Great Lakes in what will now be the Week 2-3 time period, the model did see the pull back before the majority of other data.

The new GEFS this afternoon sees something similar:

Again, along with the expected cooler shift, the model is painting a wet pattern emerging as we put the wraps on the month of July.  With the developing northwest flow aloft, it’s tough to disagree with this overall more active look.

Enjoy this pleasant early-July weather and have a great weekend!  Additional updates will arrive here and on our social media outlets throughout the weekend.

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Serious Heat & Humidity Continues In The Week Ahead…

An expansive upper level ridge will keep many across the eastern half of the country very hot and humid over the upcoming week.  The worst of this particular heat wave, relative to average, will center itself over the Great Lakes and Northeast.

More specific to central Indiana, daily highs in the lower to middle 90s and overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s will continue into late next week.  For the most part, this is a dry pattern, as well, BUT there will be a few exceptions.

The first of such arrives Sunday evening into Sunday night with the potential of a line of showers and thunderstorms rumbling into the state.  We note high resolution models weaken this line of storms as it arrives into central Indiana (likely after dark Sunday), but we’ll keep an eye on things.  As things stand now, the western half of the state stands the greatest risk of getting meaningful rain Sunday evening.

Thereafter, additional isolated to widely scattered storm coverage is possible- primarily during the afternoon and evening hours, but more than not will remain rain-free.  7-day precipitation totals check in this morning in the 0.25″ to 0.75″ range.

In the longer range, we should begin to see a transition to “less hot” 🙂 conditions next weekend followed by a more significant pattern change for the second half of July as the upper level ridge retrogrades west, centering itself over the Rocky Mountain region.

Not only will this likely lead to a cooler second half of July, but should also offer up an increasingly active and wetter northwesterly flow for our immediate region.

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