Category Archives: AG Report

Midweek Weather Rambles: Calmer Times On The Horizon…

I. It’s a state divided this afternoon with winter across the northern third of the state (most are in the 30s), seasonable spring conditions central (low-mid 60s), and 70°+ downstate. Unfortunately, we’ll all turn colder tonight and as low pressure scoots east across the Ohio Valley, it’ll help pull a swath of wet snow across the northern half of Indiana after midnight through the predawn hours Thursday.  Further north and northeast, a wet accumulation of an inch or less can be expected.

II.  We’ll turn cooler to close the week, but with an increasingly sunny time of things, we forecast a very pleasant open to the weekend.  High pressure will remain in control of our weather into early next week.  Really the only item of interest will be a gusty easterly breeze at times Sunday into Monday.  We’ll watch a storm system get shunted south and stay dry here.  Overnight lows will remain chilly through the weekend.

III.  The next opportunity for meaningful precipitation should arrive the middle of next week (Tuesday-Wednesday) time frame, and even this doesn’t look like a big deal.  From this distance, it seems like 0.10″ to 0.25″ will come from that system.

IV.  As we look ahead, the relative cold looks to relax as we put a wrap on April and open May.  Additionally, we also note the EPS painting much of the northern tier into the Ohio Valley with a drier than normal signal.  Sure looks like conditions are finally improving for #Plant18 to get underway in earnest…

No Comments 10-day, AG Report, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Plant '18, Rain, snow, Spring, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weather Rambles

Looking Ahead To The Merry Month Of May…

Folks are growing tired of the cold and snow, and for good reason; it’s mid-April for goodness sakes.  As of today, we’re currently ranked as the 5th snowiest spring (March-May) in recorded history, with Indianapolis recording 14.2″ thus far.  By the way, we’re only .3″ from moving into the 4th place spot.

With that said, it’s not just April that’s been unusually cold and snowy, but the entire year thus far.  As of April 15th, year-to-date CONUS temperatures are running more than 1° below average:

More specific to Indianapolis, here’s the monthly temperature breakdown so far for 2018:

  • April: 5.7° below normal (MTD)
  • March: 3.3° below normal
  • February: 5.6° above normal
  • January: 3.0° below normal

As we look ahead, there are a couple of key items that we’re monitoring closely to get a better idea as to where this pattern is heading as we rumble into the merry month of May:

NAO- does it show signs of finally flipping to a positive state with any sort of duration?

MJO- does it go into the “wheelhouse” or continue to rumble into the milder phases (5 and 6 this time of year)?

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a bit troubling as it shows signs of heading towards a negative phase once again as we open the month of May.  This would promote the threat of colder than normal temperatures continuing in early May. With that said, May is the first month of the next several (until winter returns) where the overall influence of the NAO state begins to lessen it’s grip.  Unlike from the mid and late winter months into the early spring (Jan through April), mid and late spring, through the fall, isn’t controlled by the NAO.  With May being a “transition” month, we’ll favor a colder than average pattern continuing during the early portion of May as the NAO looks to trend negative.  As we move towards mid and late month, we won’t rely on the NAO like we have been lately as the said influence “wanes.”

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forecast by most data to head towards the “null” phase.  The consensus of modeling takes it into the wheelhouse after traversing Phase 3 (present) which is a cold phase.  The end result?  Unfortunately, we can’t rely on the MJO with any sort of confidence from this distance for the month of May.

Looking at the data itself, the CFSv2 and European Weeklies (just to name a couple) show conflicting ideas.  The CFSv2 (courtesy of weatherbell.com) is in the warmer than normal camp for May while the NEW European Weeklies (courtesy of weathermodels.com) suggest the chill lingers throughout the month.

While we have conflicting temperature ideas, both suggest a drier than average month emerging:

At the end of the day, our call on May’s forecast from mid-April would be for an early cooler than average start before flipping towards more of a seasonable to slightly warmer than normal regime.  Our idea all along this spring has been that when this pattern flips, the potential is present to jump right to a summery feel.  In the face of the new European Weeklies, we still feel this warmer idea mid and late May is on the table.  We’re in agreement with the data of a drier than average month.

No Comments AG Report, Arctic Cold, Autumn, CFSv2, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Long Range Discussion, MJO, Monthly Outlook, NAO, snow, Spring, Summer, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles

Records? We’ve Got Records, And Looking Ahead…

Meteorological spring began March 1st (though you wouldn’t know it with all of the cold and snow lately).  Snow dominated the headlines in March with nearly a foot that fell.  Cold also was a story as temperatures ran significantly below normal.  Check out these impressive stats, courtesy of the Indianapolis National Weather Service:

  • The 10.2″ of snow that fell at Indianapolis on the 24th set the daily snowfall record and 2nd snowiest March day ever.
  • The 11.6″ of snow at Indianapolis resulted in March 2018 going down as the 6th snowiest March on record.
  • Temperatures ran 3.3° below average.

Though we’re only a few days into the month of April, the fourth month of the year is already trying to “out do” March.  Sleep has been few and far between here in the good ole forecast office with such an active start to the month.  From the heaviest Easter snow on record to setting the wettest day in April ever and widespread flooding, we’ve had it all in just the first (3) days!

  • Indianapolis recorded 3.9″ of rain on the 3rd- good for the daily rainfall record and greatest amount of rain within any April day on record.
  • Easter snow: though some places received more (3.2″ at Whitestown and up to 6″ of snow at Lafayette and Frankfort), Indianapolis accumulated 2.1″ which set a record for snowiest Easter and snowiest April 1st.

At one time what looked like another snow-starved snow season is now getting oh so much closer to “average,” with the late season rally.  As the saying goes, “it’s never over until it’s over!”  In Whitestown, we’re now over 30″ on the season!  Indianapolis is up to 22.7″ on the season and only 3″ below average.

Looking ahead, the upcoming couple weeks should continue to promote an active pattern.  Temperatures should follow the colder than normal theme and precipitation should run above average.  For the snow, we’re not done with that yet, either!  Speaking of snow, we’re tracking additional opportunities for snowfall this weekend and again early next week…  Hang in there, spring will get here eventually…

More of a winter than spring feel this week. Image courtesy of Weatherbell.com.
Colder than average temperatures continue in the 6-10 day.
Additional opportunities of accumulating snow are present over the next couple weeks.
An active pattern remains…
No Comments AG Report, Arctic Cold, Easter, Flooding, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Rain, Record Weather, snow, Spring, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Winter Storm

Looking Ahead To Close March And Open April: Cold Set To Return?

Before we discuss some of what has our attention as we move through the next couple of weeks, check out this cool visible satellite image from this morning.  The snowpack shows up nicely.  It’s also neat to see the high resolution modeling understand where that snow pack is and the associated cooler forecast highs compared to areas south and north that didn’t see the heavy snow Saturday.

As we look ahead, a wet week is in store for the region.  Periods of widespread rain, heavy at times, will come at us in waves:

  • Monday evening-Tuesday
  • Thursday
  • Next weekend, including Easter

When totaled up, widespread 2″ totals can be expected, with locally heavier amounts.

After a brief relaxation in the unseasonably cold regime, well below average temperatures are expected to return as we move through early April.  It’ll feel more like winter than spring through the better part of the first half of the month.

It’s also too early to think about yesterday as the last snow of the season.  Given the early April look, it wouldn’t surprise us if an additional snow event or two came along…

(As a reminder, you can always catch our most up-to-date 7-day forecast in the top left of the homepage).

No Comments AG Report, Arctic Cold, Easter, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather