Quick Evening Notes: Warm Pattern Grabs The Headlines In The Longer Range…
As we look over the 12z long range guidance, we see a common theme: warmer (dare I say “hotter”) than average. Additionally, most data paints a drier than normal trend Days 10-20, as well.
The GEFS shows eastern ridging gaining control during the period which favors a warmer than normal pattern. Consensus of other data is similar in the upper levels.
At the surface, all three major global models agree on warmth in the long range period, including the GEFS, EPS, and CFSv2:
Guidance suggests below average precipitation during the period. With broad scale ridging in place, we agree on a drier theme compared to normal. While trying to put our finger on the flip from the prolonged cold to warmer was difficult to nail down from March and April, May always looked like a drier than average month from several weeks out. (One note is the potential of active times across the Great Lakes region as “sudden summer” gains steam to the south and stubborn chill refuses to let go to our north. The gradient would promote heavier than normal precipitation relative to average).
Given the agreement in the data, along with some additional pattern drivers, we continue to believe the medium to longer term period (including mid and late May) will feature an overall warmer than average pattern along with drier than normal conditions.
More on the short-term in the morning, including what will be a summer-like feel by late week.
Drier and slightly cooler air will build in as we open the new work week. Overnight lows will fall into the mid and upper 40s both Monday and Tuesday mornings. High pressure will supply plentiful sunshine.
A broad southwesterly air flow will return as we progress through the latter stages of the work week and head into next weekend. We’ll certainly notice an uptick in humidity by Thursday and that summer-like feel will remain into the weekend. The increased moisture will also result in periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Expect “splash and dash” variety of storms in a daily fashion beginning Wednesday evening.
While scattered storms will be on the radar daily from midweek on, significant widespread rainfall isn’t expected. There will be some locally heavier amounts, but for the most part across central Indiana, 7-day totals won’t exceed three quarters of an inch.
…and a year-to-date that looks like this:
…sustained warmth is music to the ears of many Hoosiers! Thankfully, the balance of the upcoming (10) days will feature warmer than average conditions, as illustrated by the latest European ensemble data.
This will include multiple days with high temperatures rising into the 80s over the upcoming 10-day stretch (Tuesday and Wednesday and again next Monday through Wednesday).
As for rainfall totals, it still appears widespread amounts will check-in in the half inch to one inch range, but a few locally heavier amounts can be expected.
Models continue to dry us out in time for the weekend and all of those important Cinco de Mayo/ Derby plans. An increasingly sunny sky will be with us along with highs in the middle 70s Saturday afternoon! Can you say “perfection?”
Temperatures will remain cooler than average, but that late-April sun will feel mighty nice, especially after a couple days of “showery” overcast and 50s.
High pressure will quickly build in thereafter and lead to the best weather weekend so far this spring. Saturday and Sunday should feature plentiful sunshine both days. Morning lows will be chilly (upper 30s to lower 40s for most), but daytime highs will zoom into the 60s both days.
As we look ahead, warmth will continue to build as we open May. Lower 80s seem to be a good bet as we move into next week, but before we get into sustained warmth, another “setback” or two seems to be a good bet. We note the EPS showing this nicely as cooler anomalies return by Week 2.
It remains a drier than overall pattern over the upcoming couple weeks. The next storm of any significance is slated for an arrival late next week (Thursday time frame).
After a chilly work week (relative to average), 60s will return this weekend and temperatures will zip into the lower and middle 70s early next week, before approaching 80° by the middle of next week.
Despite the showers that will impact central Indiana today, it’s mostly a dry pattern over the upcoming 10-day period. Additional rain chances will continue Tuesday (scattered, nuisance-level) and with a frontal passage Friday. With that said, 10-day rainfall will only run between one half and three quarters of an inch for most of the region.