Today’s 12z model suite is in and it remains consistent on a more active weather pattern returning to the delight of many Hoosiers! A blend of the GFS and European 10-day rainfall numbers print out 2″ for Indianapolis. The GFS ensemble ‘mean’ (a blend of 21 individual members) agrees.
Best overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms should come in (3) waves over the upcoming 10-day period:
- Wednesday into Thursday
- Saturday into Sunday
- Middle parts of the following week
While we don’t see any sort of uniform type rains in the upcoming period, the “smattering” of storms should help most neighborhoods get in on the rainy “goods” at one time or another over the upcoming week and a half. Keep in mind, we’re in mid-June now and it’s mighty difficult to ask for anything much more than scattered storms this time of year on through late-summer…unless a tropical entity gets involved. That’s just the way this time of year is. With that said, localized torrential downpours are a very good bet from time to time, beginning as early as mid-week, as precipitable water values approach, or exceed, 2″ (about as moisture-rich as you can ask the air mass to get around these parts) into the upcoming weekend.
As I type this outside on the back porch this evening, I hear the sounds of sprinklers in full-force through the ‘hood. Thankfully, Mother Nature will help save on the water bill later this week. Longer-term, you’ll hear us use the word “transient” many times this summer when discussing the overall weather pattern. Thankfully that tends to result in a fairly busy time of things. Before you know it, college football season will be back (83 days until my beloved Auburn Tigers kick-off), those wetter autumn storms will return, and thoughts will begin to shift to winter (they may have already started here :-))- not that we’re trying to rush summer away or anything…
Week 2:
Weeks 3-4
We’ll begin to dry things out Saturday night into Sunday, but unseasonably chilly air will remain. Lows over the weekend into early next week will grow cold enough to allow patchy frost to develop in outlying communities. We think low to mid 30s will be common across the region Sunday and Monday mornings.
The individual GFS ensemble members are truly concerning, especially given just how wet we currently are. We note some members suggest additional 3″-4″ totals- with over 50% of that coming from our midweek storm.
We’ll keep a close eye on model data over the next couple of days, but as of now, we suggest planning for additional hefty rain totals in the Wednesday night through Friday time frame. Also of interest will be the extreme cool associated with this storm. As previously mentioned, the majority of the day Thursday will be spent in the 40s (more like early-March than early-May). Factor in a gusty easterly breeze and we’ll have the makings for a truly “raw” weather day across the region.
Week 2:
Weeks 3-4:
The big picture is one that shows a drier pattern developing across the East during Week 1, but we caution that this drier regime doesn’t look to “lock” in. Data suggests we get back to an active pattern between Week’s 2-4, biased wetter than normal in the Mid West and Plains. The other screaming message is that a busy severe season should continue through the period. Cold sets up across the Pacific Northwest, associated with the “mean” trough position, while spring-like warmth continues to build across our region in overall terms. We know what that means as storms eject off the Rockies and track east…
Precipitation is running above normal, locally, to the tune of nearly 1″ month-to-date. Heaviest rains have fallen across southeastern Indiana over the past (30) days.
A look at precipitation anomalies across the mid west, month-to-date:
As we progress through the upcoming (10) days, a transient weather pattern will persist. This will keep forecasters busy, but it should also be stressed it’s not all a “doom and gloom” type pattern, either. There will be plenty of dry time over the upcoming period, including drier conditions building in tomorrow (Tuesday) into a good chunk of Wednesday.
However, timing is our friend this go around as upper ridging develops over the upcoming weekend. Not only will we dry out, but we’ll also enjoy increasing sunshine as the weekend progresses.
That said, looking further down the pipe line, another (potentially more significant) storm system looms during the 8-10 day period. This would fall in the April 3rd-4th time frame. From this distance, models are bullish on hefty rainfall totals with this storm system and we’ll keep a close eye on things as time draws closer.
Speaking of April, our overall thoughts for the fourth month of the year (where does time go?) would imply a warmer than average month and active (wetter than average). Relative to average, we feel we still may have some chill to traverse early month, but there’s also some indication we could bust into an early summer-like feel mid and late month. With the mean trough position west and ridging east, we’ll have to also be mindful for the potential of an active severe weather month- especially mid and late month. Overall, the CanSIPS idea below is one we would agree with from a mean 500mb perspective.
The warmth continues in the days ahead, but we’re going to run much drier, overall, as strong ridging remains the dominant factor through late week.
The past (90) days have featured hefty rains across the Mid West.
Late season heat will grip most of the east over the upcoming (7) days. Note those population areas (nearly 90% of the lower 48) to experience at, or above, 80 degree heat between now and next Tuesday. Even areas into the Lakes and New England get in on the late summer feel.
In the shorter term, an isolated shower is possible this evening, but most should remain dry as the air is very dry across the region.
The upper air pattern features strong ridging over the central and east over the upcoming several days. A cold front and associated trough will deliver cooler air by the early to middle part of next week.
In between the warmth and pending cooler, more fall-like, air will be a round of scattered showers and thunderstorms early next week. Modeling differs on precipitation amounts, but, as of now, heavy rains aren’t looking likely.
As mentioned, early to middle parts of next week should feature temperatures much closer to where we should be this time of year, if not a few degrees below average.