Category: 7-Day Outlook
Highlights:
- Damp, chilly Sunday
- Milder week ahead
- Spring-preview late next week
Improvements Coming…Most of tonight will feature dry conditions along with temperatures settling back below freezing (most of central IN will fall into the middle to upper 20s). Another surge of light precipitation will arrive Sunday morning into the afternoon and this could begin as a period of freezing rain from the city and points north. Similar to today, we don’t expect any major problems from the freezing rain and all of the region should warm above freezing during the afternoon.
While Monday could feature a quick-hitting shower at any given time, more widespread steady rain will push into central Indiana during the day Tuesday, along with breezy conditions. Those breezy southwest winds will help give temperatures a boost into the middle 50s for afternoon highs.
We’ll shift that southwest wind around to the northwest Wednesday and this will help push cooler air into the state for mid week. Despite the cooler feel, we’ll remain well above average with breezy conditions. (Average highs in central Indiana are in the middle 30s this time of year).
The big news for the latter portion of the forecast period will be a true spring-like feel developing as we rumble into the weekend. In fact, temperatures will surge well into the 60s next Saturday. Modeling isn’t in total agreement on rain chances with a moist southwest flow in place. We’ll take the “optimistic” route at this time and forecast a dry Saturday, understanding that we’ll have to maintain a close eye on things.
Quick heads up, longer term data continues to suggest we’ll flip into a much colder and stormy pattern as we wrap up January and head into February. Winter is far from over…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/14/january-thaw-for-the-new-week-ahead/
Highlights:
- Turning colder
- Freezing rain develops Friday night
- Wet times continue
Active Times; Excessive Rainfall Risk Next Week…The overall weather pattern remains very active AND very wet. By the time all is said and done, an additional 3″ of rain is possible for a widespread portion of the region by the middle of next week, with locally heavier amounts. Lets time it out.
The focus in the shorter-term is for colder air to build in. Temperatures today will fall (after a spring-like feel during the wee morning hours). We’ll be in the 30s by mid to late afternoon and below freezing later this evening. Arctic high pressure will continue to force cold, dry air south across central IN as we wrap up the work week. At the same time, warm, moist air aloft will ride over the cold air trapped at the surface and trouble looms by Friday night. We expect light freezing rain to develop after dark and continue into Saturday morning. As disturbances move along the arctic boundary, additional precipitation (mostly light) will overspread central Indiana from time to time over the weekend. We want to continue to reiterate that a 1-2 degree temperature difference will mean a tremendous difference between additional ice accumulation and plain ole cold rain. Thinking is that the freeze line will shift north of the I-70 corridor Saturday afternoon before settling south towards I-70 again Saturday night and Sunday morning. We still have time to fine tune things, but as of now it seems likely that anywhere from 0.10″ to 0.20″ of glaze (freezing rain) will be possible across most central IN communities Friday night into Saturday.
We’ll get rid of the freezing rain early next week and bust back into a warm southwesterly air flow. Models are struggling with the precise details of how things evolve in the early-mid week period, but confidence remains very high on continued wet times. In fact, the GFS pulls a slug of 1.5″ precipitable water values (PWATs) north into the state the middle of next week and suggest the heavy rain threat remains Tuesday and Wednesday. By the middle of next week, we have to start becoming concerned for flood potential across the region.
Hang in there, we’ll see the sunshine return…some day.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 2.50″ – 3.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/12/weekend-ice-and-heavy-rain-next-week/
Highlights:
- Active stretch of weather begins
- Moderating trend into midweek
- Ice concerns Friday-Saturday
Sunglasses NOT Required…We’re entering the beginning of an active stretch of weather, with an extended period of overcast skies and gloomy conditions. Let’s dive in and take the challenges one-by-one:
Showers develop this afternoon as a cold front moves into the state. Ahead of the front, strong southwest winds will gust upwards of 45 MPH+. A “big hair warning” is in effect. 🙂
A brief shot of colder air will arrive late tonight into Wednesday, but just as soon as it arrives, it’ll leave and temperatures will approach 60 Wednesday night as showers return.
Thursday will be a wet day with periods of rain and slowly falling temperatures during the afternoon/ evening.
Friday is much colder as the arctic front will be to our south, but most of the day looks dry. Moisture will lift north Friday afternoon and evening and with cold air in place, the precipitation should take the form of a mixture of freezing rain and sleet. Periods of freezing rain likely continue Saturday. It’s far too early to discuss amounts and we also want to reiterate the difference of 1-2 degrees will mean a world of difference between areas dealing with ice versus a cold rain. The “battle zone” looks to take place across central IN. If you have travel plans Friday night and Saturday, please keep abreast of later forecasts and updates.
Regardless of whether or not we’re dealing with icy conditions across central IN during the first half of the weekend, temperatures will warm during the second half of the weekend and change any frozen/ freezing precipitation over to plain ole cold rain Sunday into Monday.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/10/prolonged-stretch-of-gloomy-weather/
Highlights:
- Late night light freezing rain develops
- Milder and wet through mid week
- Ice storm potential on the rise late week
Feeling Downright Balmy Out…Temperatures this morning (writing this at 7a) are running close to 20 degrees above where we were this exact time Sunday. 20 degrees has never felt so warm! 🙂 This moderating trend will continue into mid week, including temperatures that approach 60 Thursday. That said, we have a mini “speed bump” to go over tonight and that’s the opportunity for light freezing rain late tonight into the wee morning hours Tuesday. Temperatures should go above freezing just before the morning rush Tuesday, but plan to leave additional time as slick spots may remain. Once we clear the “speed bump,” it’s off to the races in the temperature department through mid week: around 50 Tuesday afternoon and around 60 by Thursday (that’s a late night high Wednesday in the upper 50s). Periods of showers will come with the milder air, centered on Tuesday and late Wednesday into Thursday.
Unfortunately, the milder times don’t last long and we still forecast “trouble” late in the week. The set-up remains unchanged as a big, sprawling arctic high pushes into Wisconsin Friday. This will help “shove” the arctic front through Indiana before stalling along the Ohio River Friday into Saturday. As this is happening, ripples of energy will help ignite periods of precipitation Friday into the weekend. With cold air locked in at the surface, we expect the potential of a rather prolonged period of freezing rain developing late Friday and continuing into the weekend. We still have time for things to change, but from this distance, the predominant precipitation type, unfortunately, appears to be freezing rain. Stay tuned as this could be a high impact event.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.25″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/09/busy-weather-week-ice-storm-potential-friday-into-the-weekend/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Forecast, Freezing Rain, Rain, Sleet, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Windy, Wintry Mix
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January 8, 2017
Highlights:
- Another bitter day
- Moderating temperatures ahead
- Late week ice threat looms
Bitter Cold Gives Way To Moderating Temperatures…The first half of the forecast period is easy, but we caution big time headaches loom and details are far from etched in stone once to the second half of this forecast period.
First thing’s first and that’s today. Look for a continuation of bitterly cold air, but slow moderation will be noted this afternoon: Not AS bitter and lighter winds. We may even crack the 20 degree mark! I know, break out the swim suits, right?! This moderating trend is setting the tone for a more significant jump in the mercury later in the week. Before a “taste of spring” arrives, we’ll have to deal with a brief opportunity for freezing drizzle Monday evening. Temperatures will zoom to around 50 Tuesday and around 60 for mid week. Showers will be with us off and on- focused on Tuesday and Thursday for most widespread coverage.
Then comes the “fun.” A strong, sprawling arctic high will push south into the northern Plains Friday. At the same time, “resistance” from the southeast ridge (that can be thanked for the spring-like feel here Wednesday and Thursday) will result in the arctic front only slowly being able to push south. Ripples of energy, or waves of low pressure, will move along the arctic boundary and result in periods of widespread precipitation Friday into the weekend. As the cold, dense arctic air oozes south, we have concern for icing- freezing rain and sleet Friday into Saturday. Depending on how things evolve, this may continue into Sunday, as well. If you have travel plans this weekend, please keep a close eye on the developments in the forecast from Friday on. Stay tuned.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
Snowfall: 1.00″
Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/08/changeable-weather-late-week-ice-threat/
Highlights:
- Bitterly cold weekend
- Big shift in temperatures next week
- Icy set-up late next week?
Heavy Winter Gear Required…We’ll watch a significant winter storm impact the southern states this weekend with heavy snow and ice accumulations. Here on the home-front, expect bitterly cold conditions with dry skies. Clouds tonight should keep most areas around zero. That’s frigid in and of itself, but should skies clear, temperatures will easily fall below zero. Very cold conditions remain Sunday.
We’ll back our air flow around to the southwest early next week and this will help give temperatures a big boost by the mid week period. Gusty southwest winds and showers will be with us, as well.
A complex weather pattern will set up to close out the week. The clash of air masses between a sprawling strong arctic high and an equally impressive southeast ridge will be fun to watch, but not to forecast. It’s very possible unseasonably warm conditions of Thursday give way to much colder weather going into next weekend as the arctic high helps “ooze” dense, shallow, cold air south. At the same time, waves of low pressure will move along the pressing arctic front and periods of heavy precipitation will result. Conditions should grow cold enough by Friday into Saturday for the precipitation to fall as an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain across portions of central Indiana. Stay tuned.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: Trace
- Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.50″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/06/bitter-weekend-changeable-weather-next-week/
Highlights:
- Snow intensifies for a period this afternoon
- Bitterly cold weekend ahead
- Moderating trend early next week
Snowy Thursday…Light snow developed during the predawn hours and made for a slick morning commute across central Indiana. We note a steadier band of snow currently falling south of the city for places like Bedford, Columbus, and Seymour as of this update (9:30a). As additional energy pushes across the state late morning into the afternoon, look for snow to expand in coverage and intensity for a time across more of central Indiana around lunchtime into the early afternoon before sliding off to the east. Our ongoing snowfall forecast remains unchanged:
Conditions will remain bitterly cold (most of today is spent in the 10s), and with even the slightest bit of snow cover, conditions will turn even more frigid to end the week. Area-wide single digits can be expected to begin the day Friday (Saturday and Sunday, as well) with wind chills below zero. Dry conditions return this weekend. We’ll watch as our friends to the south enjoy a winter storm from Alabama, northern GA, into the Carolinas.
Moderating temperatures return early next week and as the warm advection begins Monday, it could help produce a wintry mix by evening before precipitation transitions to rain Tuesday, along with a breezy SW wind.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
- Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/05/snow-intensifies-again-early-afternoon-turning-much-colder/
Highlights:
- Turning much colder tonight
- Light snow Thursday
- Bitterly cold, but dry weekend
The Ice Box Returns…An arctic cold front will sweep through the state tonight and help usher in a drastically colder feel as we progress through the middle and latter parts of the week. Left over rain showers this evening may end as a couple of snow flurries before precipitation comes to an end. Winds will really increase tonight behind the cold front, gusting between 30 and 40 MPH. This will lead to single digit wind chill values out the door Wednesday morning.
Our next weather disturbance arrives Thursday morning and will help spread light snow across the southern half of the state. Snow will continue into the early afternoon before departing off to the east. Light accumulations (around 1″) will be possible, especially from Indianapolis and points south. We’ll keep an eye on fresh data coming into the forecast office tonight and update if need be.
Otherwise, the big story going into the weekend will be the return of bitterly cold air. In fact, overnight lows will drop into the single digits Saturday and Sunday mornings. Dress warmly if you have plans to be outside for any length of time.
Our air flow will back around to the southwest early next week and temperatures will begin to moderate. Moisture may make it to the surface to create a little spotty freezing drizzle Monday evening before temperatures sky-rocket to around 50 Tuesday as showers return.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 1.00″
- Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/03/bitterly-cold-air-returns/
Highlights:
- Unsettled open to the week
- Turning colder Tuesday
- Couple snow chances, but low confidence
Wet Open To The Week…Clouds waited to increase until after sunset Sunday and the more than expected sunshine led to a downright beauty of a kickoff to 2017, complete with mild temperatures. Unfortunately, those pleasant conditions won’t last as we deal with increasing coverage of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm Monday. Rain coverage appears greatest during the evening into the nighttime hours.
An arctic cold front will sweep through the state Tuesday afternoon and lead to a dramatic temperature plunge for the rest of the week. Showers Tuesday will end as a touch of wet snow before precipitation moves out.
Forecast models are still struggling with handling Pacific energy for mid and late week. This is leading to a lower than normal confidence level with two potential systems Thursday and again Saturday. For now, we’re eyeing the threat of light snow with both and believe modeling will come around to more of a weather maker once time draws closer. Stay tuned. Cold weather remains as we progress through next weekend.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
- Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/01/turning-colder-after-a-wet-open-to-the-week/
Highlights:
- Raw New Year’s Eve
- Briefly milder Monday with showers
- Snow prospects mid week
Busy Times…Clouds will increase late tonight and give way to showers during the daytime New Year’s Eve. Most of this shower activity will be light, but you’ll want to carry the rain gear with you as you leave for New Year’s Eve parties and celebrations throughout central IN. Once to the nighttime hours, showers should diminish and most of the nighttime should feature rain-free conditions, along with colder temperatures.
New Year’s Day may start out with some sunshine, but clouds will increase through the day and drizzle or light rain is possible by evening. Low pressure will track northeast from the central Plains into the upper Mid West Monday. This will place Indiana in a relatively warm southwest flow. Periods of showers can be expected through the day, along with breezy conditions. An accompanying cold front will sweep through the state early Tuesday morning and shut rain chances off, shift winds to the northwest, and lead to falling temperatures.
Wednesday will be a day in between storm systems. Cold high pressure will settle into the Ohio Valley and supply unseasonably chilly temperatures, but with sunshine.
Our next storm system will approach Thursday. Clouds will increase Wednesday night and give way to an expanding snow shield during the day Thursday. We still have a few days to look at things, but from this distance, the potential is present for an impactful wintry event across a widespread portion of the Ohio Valley, including central Indiana. Stay tuned. Fresh arctic air will move in to put a close on yet another short work week.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.25″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/12/30/busy-7-day-to-usher-in-2017/
