The work week has opened on a gloomy note. Thankfully, improvements are on the way as we look ahead! Despite a small “setback” Friday (scattered shower chance), the majority of the upcoming 10-day period will feature a warming trend and an overall drier than average theme.
Weak high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley through midweek and will result in an increasingly sunny sky Wednesday-Thursday.
Temperatures will remain cooler than average, but that late-April sun will feel mighty nice, especially after a couple days of “showery” overcast and 50s.
Models are trending drier as we look ahead to Friday’s system and we tend to agree. While we can’t rule out a few showers Friday, this won’t be a significant event (0.10″ for those that do see rain).
High pressure will quickly build in thereafter and lead to the best weather weekend so far this spring. Saturday and Sunday should feature plentiful sunshine both days. Morning lows will be chilly (upper 30s to lower 40s for most), but daytime highs will zoom into the 60s both days.
As we look ahead, warmth will continue to build as we open May. Lower 80s seem to be a good bet as we move into next week, but before we get into sustained warmth, another “setback” or two seems to be a good bet. We note the EPS showing this nicely as cooler anomalies return by Week 2.
It remains a drier than overall pattern over the upcoming couple weeks. The next storm of any significance is slated for an arrival late next week (Thursday time frame).
After a chilly work week (relative to average), 60s will return this weekend and temperatures will zip into the lower and middle 70s early next week, before approaching 80° by the middle of next week.
Despite the showers that will impact central Indiana today, it’s mostly a dry pattern over the upcoming 10-day period. Additional rain chances will continue Tuesday (scattered, nuisance-level) and with a frontal passage Friday. With that said, 10-day rainfall will only run between one half and three quarters of an inch for most of the region.
II. We’ll turn cooler to close the week, but with an increasingly sunny time of things, we forecast a very pleasant open to the weekend. High pressure will remain in control of our weather into early next week. Really the only item of interest will be a gusty easterly breeze at times Sunday into Monday. We’ll watch a storm system get shunted south and stay dry here. Overnight lows will remain chilly through the weekend.
III. The next opportunity for meaningful precipitation should arrive the middle of next week (Tuesday-Wednesday) time frame, and even this doesn’t look like a big deal. From this distance, it seems like 0.10″ to 0.25″ will come from that system.
IV. As we look ahead, the relative cold looks to relax as we put a wrap on April and open May. Additionally, we also note the EPS painting much of the northern tier into the Ohio Valley with a drier than normal signal. Sure looks like conditions are finally improving for #Plant18 to get underway in earnest…
Model data continues to show this idea has merit and now we’ll have to handle the individual storms as they come. As we’d expect late in the winter, challenges abound, but this is a pattern that has potential. Can we turn potential into reality? That’s the question that will be answered over the next couple weeks.
The next item on the agenda will arrive Friday afternoon into Friday night. It, too, should spread snow across a portion of the Ohio Valley. With this being in the Day 6 time period, expect fine tuning as we move through the upcoming week.
Finally, a third system will impact the area about this time next week, and it’s this system that appears to be the most significant of the group. Far too early to get detailed, but it certainly warrants our attention.
The overall pattern we’ll “enjoy” over the next couple of weeks is one that’s been lacking for the better part of the past few winters. With blocking in place, storm systems trying to lift into the Great Lakes will be “forced” south and result in an active time of things around these parts- including the east coast, as well, over the better part of the upcoming 10-15 days.
II. We’re hopeful for much needed sunshine Sunday as we’ll be in between storm systems, however any sun that we see won’t last long.
While this is an unseasonably warm pattern (we forecast highs of 50°, or above, 5 out of 7 of the upcoming days, and at least 2 60°+ days), it’s one that will likely result in periods of heavy rain not only next week, but in waves over the upcoming 10 days.
Widespread 10-day rainfall numbers of 3″ to 4″ will be likely in this setup, including locally heavier amounts of 5″ to 6″ in spots. Certainly, if you live near waterways we suggest having a plan in place as it’s not a matter of if, but when flooding takes place in spots across the region with such a setup.