Updated 02.18.23 @ 6:45a
Just as many are getting ready to bust into full blown spring mode, it’s becoming increasingly apparent that Mother Nature has other ideas.
We note the most powerful teleconnection (especially by late winter and early spring standards) is set to head into cold phases to close Feb and open March.
NAO
That said, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is looking like it’ll be more stubborn (has been the story this year with respect to getting all of the pattern drivers to align). Based on the latest guidance, a rumble through warm Phase 7 is possible before the MJO heads into the traditionally cold Phase 8 early March. This will be critical in the ultimate pattern progression as we get into the 1st month of meteorological spring.
As a result, from a temperature standpoint, the period from now through the end of February likely continues the warmer than normal theme. That’s not to say there won’t be cold “jabs,” similar to what we saw Friday, but the longevity of cold will be fleeting given the drivers above. There’s no reason to argue with the upcoming 10-day period to essentially close out February from the European ensemble:
It’s also a rather active pattern, including at least slightly above normal precipitation throughout the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, to close the month.
While “proof is in the pudding,” especially this year, it appears as if the MJO and NAO will align to force a shift in the regime towards more sustained cold (relative to normal) as we push through the 1st half of March. Interestingly, the new European Weeklies also highlight this, and are “all-in” on a colder than normal March as a whole.
The period features a wetter than normal look, as well:
Despite what you might believe (or hope) at this point, we’re likely not finished with the accumulating snow prospects, either…