Persistent ridges will remain in place along both the East and West Coast with a persistent trough in the central through the upcoming 7-day period.
The cooler anomalies in the central will be mostly associated with lower than average daytime maxes (due to the unsettled weather). Hot weather will remain in place across the West.
Above normal precipitation can be expected through the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and interior Northeast through the course of the upcoming 7-days.
We forecast widespread 2″ to 3″ rainfall totals across central Indiana through the upcoming 7-day period with locally heavier amounts.
Forecast Period: 07.11.21 through 07.18.21
A persistent and rather stagnant upper pattern will remain in place through the upcoming 7-day forecast period. A cut off upper low that will be responsible for our unsettled conditions to open the work week will lose it’s influence on our weather as it gets absorbed in the westerlies by midweek. This will result in coverage of showers/ storms going from “numerous” (now through Tuesday) to “isolated” Wednesday and Thursday. Don’t get used to the drier trend though as a new trough will settle into the Plains during the 2nd half of the week, increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms yet again Friday through next weekend. With such a rich, tropical airmass in place, the threat of localized flash flooding will remain high.
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Updated 07.10.21 @ 6:44a I’m on the road back to home base this morning. Just a quick heads up our video package won’t be posted until early afternoon. Talk soon,…
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Drier and cooler air will be with us to close out the work week, but changes are on the horizon just in time for the weekend.
It still appears as if we will deal with a couple rounds of more widespread showers and thunderstorms Saturday. The first complex will likely impact central and southern Indiana Saturday morning (bracketing the hours of 8a to noon west to east for round 1).
High resolution guidance then delivers a 2nd round of showers and thunderstorms into the state during the late afternoon and evening hours.
A moist southerly flow will continue to impact the region into early next week, keeping periods of scattered showers and embedded thunder in our forecast Sunday through Tuesday (most numerous during the afternoon and evening hours).
While we can’t completely rule out rain Wednesday, coverage should be less compared to what we’ll see in the short-term period. Rain and storm coverage will then ramp back up the 2nd half of the week into next weekend. All in all, it’s a very active pattern that will undoubtedly produce localized flash flooding across portions of the region.
7-day precipitation anomalies
We forecast 7-day rainfall totals between 2.5″ and 3.5″ with locally heavier amounts.
Looking ahead, all indications continue to point towards above normal rainfall as we progress through the latter part of July. As has also been the case, we don’t see any sort of sustained heat on the horizon through the end of the month.
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In case you missed it, our complete July Outlook can be found here.
The EPO (big teleconnection “driver” this time of year) is forecast to pop positive in the short-term before heading back negative mid and late month.
Simply going off of that, one could build a case of warmth returning in the short term but that it would have a hard time sustaining itself. Relative to normals, this has been the story summer-to-date.
The other key to the longer range pattern has to do with the MJO, or Madden Julian Oscillation.
Guidance suggests we’re going to move into Phases 3, 4, and 5 over the coming couple of weeks. The end result would be a continuation of active times (noted from the precipitation correlation below) before drying things out a bit in Phase 5. Similar to what the EPO is perhaps trying to tell us above, sustained heat would be hard to come by, relative to normal. All-in-all, it’s a very transient looking pattern.
When we look at computer model guidance over the next couple of weeks, the upper pattern features a predominant ridge across the West. There’s also more persistent ridging across the Northeast. In between, there’s a “weakness” and tendency for at least more of a “troughy” look in the central.
Week 1
Week 2
While we’ll have a couple of days here and there of hotter, more humid weather, these conditions won’t have the staying power our friends to our northeast and west will experience. In general, things should balance out very near seasonal levels.
Guidance remains quite bullish on precipitation, painting above normal rainfall through the central and a good chunk of the eastern parts of the country.
Speaking of rain, chances of rain and storms will return Wednesday as our next system approaches. Better chances of more widespread rain can be expected by the weekend. Our video discussions will handle these features and more.
The upper pattern in the week ahead will feature a persistent ridge across the West with more of a transient look across the East.
Persistent heat will take up residence across the western tier with a cooler look (primarily thanks to the unseasonably cool airmass to open the period) across the Central and eastern tier.
The Ohio Valley will experience widespread dry weather for the bulk of the upcoming 7-day period. The exception to this will be with the passage of a midweek cold front.
Heaviest rain in the upcoming week will be focused along the Gulf Coast and Northeast.
Forecast Period: 07.04.21 through 07.11.21
A quiet and pleasant stretch of mid-summer weather can be expected to open the forecast period. Elsa will grab headlines early on (and rightfully so) as she makes the northward turn most likely into the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the early portion of the work week. As it stands now, it appears as if the Florida peninsula is at greatest risk of heavy rain and strong winds thanks to Elsa. Back here on the home front, dry conditions will prevail at least until late Tuesday. A cold front will move through the region Wednesday with better chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms (0.50″ to 0.75″ type rainfall totals expected for most). We’ll get back to dry conditions Thursday along with less humid air once again. (A stronger storm system appears slated to impact the area just beyond the forecast period).
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